Keys to victory for Michigan/MSU against Minnesota/Nebraska

Michigan and Michigan State hit the field in 24 hours for a pair of Big Ten games. Here are my keys to victory for both teams on Saturday.

Michigan at Minnesota, Noon

- Be smart with Denard – It is fully expected for Denard Robinson to play on Saturday, but he may not be 100 percent. If the Wolverines are going to have a shot at the Big Ten title, they need Robinson to play the rest of the season. Against a team like Minnesota, Michigan should be able to move the ball on the ground with players like Fitzgerald Toussaint. The Golden Gophers have the third-worst rushing defense in the Big Ten, so Michigan should be able to exploit that with a healthy mix of ball carriers other than Robinson. I’m not saying don’t utilize Robinson, that would be silly, but keep his touches lower than normal and try to avoid piling up the hits on him.

- Stop the obvious players – Minnesota doesn’t have much in regards to big offensive stars. Running back Donnell Kirkwood is the top player, as he has 609 yards rushing with three scores this season. Michigan can live with Minnesota trying to win the game on his legs. I don’t see Minnesota being able to establish enough of a running game to be a one-dimensional offense. Where Michigan needs to avoid a letdown is in the passing game. Minnesota will take some chances, but their lone receiver with any stats of note is A.J. Barker, who has 30 receptions for 577 yards and seven touchdowns. The next closest receiver has just 13 catches for under 200 yards. If Minnesota is going to air it out, it will be to Barker. Michigan needs to stay close to him and focus a lot of coverage his way. If someone is going to beat the Wolverines on Saturday, make sure it is not him.

- Slow the game down early – Coming off their 44-28 win over Purdue last week, the Golden Gophers have some new life and will be looking to start Saturday’s game with a bang to get the crowd into it. Michigan needs to avoid getting caught up in that and play a smart, methodical pace on offense. Don’t come out of the gates looking for the 70-yard score. Steady drives down the field will take the crowd out of the game and keep the Minnesota offense from being on the field. Michigan can send its biggest message by controlling the line of scrimmage and dictating the pace of Saturday’s game.

Nebraska at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m.

- Pressure on Martinez – Michigan State knows what it’s like to meet up against mobile quarterback. They have had success against Denard Robinson but struggled against the likes of Braxton Miller. In this game, the Spartans need to have the same mentality they had against Robinson. They need to keep Martinez in the pocket and now allow him to get to the outside where he can make plays with his legs. If they can contain the pocket and apply pressure on the ends, it should lead to turnovers. Martinez is a better passer than Denard Robinson, but he still has his flaws and will makes mistakes if he tries to force throws under pressure.

- Line improvement – I am not sure if this is a realistic possibility, but the offensive line has to play better. The Spartans need to avoid penalties and missed assignments up front. If Michigan State can’t establish a steady run game with Le’Veon Bell, the offense will continue to struggle as they have most of the season. Nebraska has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the Big Ten, so their defensive line is not exactly a powerhouse. The Spartan linemen need to challenge themselves and win the battle up front to help the offense finally have a breakout performance.

- Make the plays that need to be made – Like most MSU games, this one will probably come down to a handful of plays late. Michigan State made the key plays last week at Wisconsin and a lot of that had to do with quarterback Andrew Maxwell and his receivers stepping up. The same needs to be done this week. Maxwell has to play with confidence and make the tough throws in a small window. The receivers need to make the tough catches and avoid the drops that hurt them early in the season. Perhaps last week’s finish will lead to an improved offense. We will find out soon enough.

Keys to victory for MSU/Michigan against Wisconsin/Nebraska

A pair of big games for Michigan and Michigan State are just a day away. Here are my keys to victory for each contest.

MSU at Wisconsin

Survive the early storm – Wisconsin will be very up for this game and look to make an early statement. The Badgers have started to find their groove on offense, having scored at least 31 points in their last three games against struggling defenses. The MSU defense will need to come out fast and contain Montee Ball. Offensively, MSU needs to be able to convert third downs and put a drive or two together to take the loud Madison crowd out of the game.

Turn The Tables – Most defenses have been stacking the box against MSU and forcing Andrew Maxwell to have to beat them. In this case, MSU needs to take the same approach against Wisconsin. The Badgers rank110th in the country in passing and have already went through two quarterbacks. I am not overly impressed with Joel Stave and think the Spartans would be wise to play one-one-one coverage against the Wisconsin receivers while putting all their focus on stopping Ball. Stave has five touchdowns to three interceptions and is completing 57 percent of his passes. He is bound to make some freshman mistakes if put under pressure.

Finish Drives – Michigan State seemed to make some positive strides in its passing game last week, but the Spartans once again settled for field goals instead of touchdowns deep in the red zone. This week, Michigan State needs to make the most of each opportunity. If Dion Sims is able to play, that should help in both the passing game and the run game. In order for Maxwell to take the next step as a starting quarterback, he has to make the big throws in the red zone.

Michigan at Nebraska

Get back to what works – Michigan struggled on offense last week and I know part of that had to do with the MSU defense, but I felt that the Wolverines played right into the Spartans’ hands. Michigan didn’t do much attacking outside the tackle box with Denard Robinson. It ran right into the MSU trap. For this game, Nebraska isn’t as talented on defense and Robinson should be able to find open space and rack up the yards. But, Michigan still needs to show some creativity and mix things up by getting Fitzgerald Toussaint, Vincent Smith and Thomas Rawls involved as well.

Take your chances with Martinez’ arm – Taylor Martinez has made strides as a passer this year, but Nebraska’s strength is its run game, including Martinez. Even if Rex Burkhead is out for the game, the Cornhuskers are more than capable of moving the ball on the ground. Like the Wolverines did against MSU, Michigan needs to stack the box and challenge Martinez to throw deep. Michigan may give up the occasional big play with that game plan, but I don’t see Martinez being able to consistently beat Michigan through the air.

Finish – Similar to MSU, Michigan needs to finish drives in this game. That hasn’t been much of a problem for the Wolverines this year, but Nebraska is a feisty team at home. If/when the Wolverines have a chance to put this game out of reach, it must do it because Nebraska can rally in a hurry. Just ask Wisconsin. Field goals won’t get the job done in this one.

News & notes from Brady Hoke's weekly presser

Michigan head coach Brady Hoke spoke to the media on Monday afternoon for his weekly press conference. Here are a few news and notes on what he had to say

- He felt the Illinois victory was a great team win and the most complete game the Wolverines have played this year. He said it was their best showing, but Hoke said they are still a long way from playing championship football.

- He called this week a great week. It is rivalry week and that is always special.

- Hoke feels both teams are different from last year, citing both teams lost key players. He doesn’t think the MSU defense has skipped a beat and that Andrew Maxwell is doing a great job.

- When it comes to what the MSU defense has done to Denard Robinson, Hoke always looks back to see how team’s attack him. He says that MSU has done a good job of getting off blocks and flowing to the ball against Robinson.

- Hoke added the MSU game has always been a physical contest.

- Hoke also said that there is a pretty clear line in the sand in this state when it comes to the Michigan-MSU rivalry.

- Hoke’s most memorable moment from the rivalry was the 2001 game. That was “Clockgate” in which the Spartans won 26-24 in East Lansing on the final play of the game.

- Hoke said the motivation for this game should come from playing a rival. It has to come from within and he hopes his players understand that.

- Hoke said the running backs that get carries in the game are based on feel. Michigan saw Fitzgerald Toussaint, Justice Hayes and Thomas Rawls all picked up at least nine carries on Saturday. Hoke said Rawls and Hayes have earned carries.

- No major injury concerns for Robinson. He is “fine” according to Hoke.

- The key to the improvement for Michigan has not been about adjustments in Hoke’s eyes, it has been about guys just playing better and executing better.

- When asked about Jake Ryan’s game on Saturday, Hoke said that the coaches have high expectations on him. Said Ryan has good instincts and is relentless, which is why he is able to make the plays he does.

News & Notes from Brady Hoke's Weekly Press Conference

Brady Hoke held his weekly press conference in Ann Arbor on Monday. Here are a few notes from it.

- Hoke feels the Wolverines aren’t getting enough pressure on the quarterback despite the recent improvements in the defense overall.

- He isn’t concerned about the lack of production from Fitzgerald Toussaint on Saturday and feels it was Purdue game planning against him after rushing for 170 yards on them a year ago.

- Hoke wasn’t happy with the kickoff coverage. Said the unit missed nine tackles in the game.

- Part of the reason for Michigan’s improvement on defense is due to the defensive linemen getting tighter to the opposing offensive line and opening up space and vision for the linebackers.

- Hoke feels Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is a dangerous player and is healthier now than he was earlier in the season.

- Hoke also said his team should have no issues in staying focused on Illinois despite the Michigan State game being next week.

News & Notes

- According to Mark Snyder of The Detroit Free Press (@Mark_Snyder) Frank Clark has been inserted into starting lineup at DE and Raymon Taylor will start at LCB for Michigan this week. .

- Quarterback Denard Robinson won the Big Ten Co-Offensive Player of the Week Award, the league announced on Monday. He has won this award nine times in his career, which ties him for the most in Big Ten history with former Wisconsin running back Ron Dayne. Robinson shared this week’s honor with Ohio State running back Carlos Hyde.

- The start time of the Michigan State at Michigan game on Oct. 20 will not be announced until after next week’s games. It will be played at noon or 3:30 p.m.

What Indiana, Purdue are saying about MSU, Michigan

As always on Thursday, I turn the focus on the opponents of Michigan and Michigan State. Here is a look at what is going on in Indiana with the Hoosiers and the Boilermakers.

Indiana

We thought Michigan State had issues.

It has been a tough three-week stretch for the Spartans, but that doesn’t compare to the issues in Bloomington.

The Hoosiers are 2-2, having lost to Ball State and Northwestern in their last two games.

Head coach Kevin Wilson is now 3-13 in his career at Indiana, with two wins coming against FCS opponents.

Things are going so well, that this week Henry had to receive a “vote of confidence” from Indiana Athletic Director, Fred Glass.

Terry Hutchens, of the Indiana Star, has more.

“We absolutely have the right guy and absolutely have the right staff," Glass told The Star. “I gave him a seven-year contract and we’re going to stick with him. For a variety of reasons, both voluntarily and involuntarily, we haven’t stuck with a football coach since Bill Mallory.
“Our goal was to find the right guy, give him the resources to be successful and then stick with him so we get the benefit of building something. And I absolutely believe we have the right guy in Kevin Wilson."
Some may see that as the dreaded vote of confidence. Many more coaches seem to lose their jobs than keep them after similar comments from their boss. Wilson has provided reasons for those concerns.

Hutches then lists some of those reasons, which includes cursing in an IU dorm and getting into an argument with the hosts of a nationally syndicated radio program on the air.

Needless to say, the Hoosiers appear to be the right team for Michigan State to be facing this week.

Purdue

The focus in West Lafayette isn’t too surprising.

It is on stopping Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense.

LaMond Pope, of the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, has thoughts from Purdue coach Danny Hope on this week’s challenge.

“They’re a lot to defend, and Denard is a big piece of that equation,” Purdue coach Danny Hope said during his weekly teleconference Tuesday. “He’s a great athlete, great player, great competitor, but he’s surrounded by a ton of good players and a fantastic scheme.”

Robinson leads the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 319.5 yards per game. He is third in the league in rushing (110.2 yards per game) and fourth in passing (209.2 yards per game).

“Obviously you have to do some things, you have to be smart with your rush lanes. If you get out of your rush lanes and he sees a big opening, he sees the seas to part, then he’s going to take off with the ball and then he’s really hard to catch,” Hope said. “He adds a whole new dimension to the ballgame. You have to do some things to make sure that you can try to minimize his production some, but if everything is geared just to stop him, then you disregard their other great players on their offensive football team, and that can really get you in trouble.”

Purdue currently ranks eighth in the Big Ten defensively, as the Boilermakers are giving up 353.3 yards per game. However, Purdue has given up the fewest rushing yards in the conference, allowing only 105.25 yards per game. Purdue also leads the conference in interceptions with eight.

Final thoughts from Week 3

No matter if it was a 50-point win or a 17-point loss, both Michigan and Michigan State seemed disappointed when Saturday concluded.

Here are some closing thoughts from the weekend.

Notre Dame 20, MSU 3

I was quite surprised that Notre Dame won so convincingly. I thought it would be close, because I didn’t think the MSU offense would be able to dominate, but I didn’t see the defense allowing 20 points.

Don’t get me wrong, the defense still played well enough to win, allowing only 300 total yards, but they didn’t apply pressure to the quarterback and allowed a few big runs.

But the defense wasn’t the issue. The issue was the offense, and it was everyone on the offense.

We all knew that there were concerns about quarterback Andrew Maxwell and the inexperienced receivers heading into the season.

What I expected is that the offensive line would make up for some of those issues. However, on Saturday, the line was the big problem. They failed to open up running lanes and protect Maxwell. Then, when the Spartans had to become a passing team, Maxwell wasn’t comfortable.

The receivers dropped some passes and Maxwell seemed rattled, but this team needs the line to be stronger. I know that the Spartans were without Fonoti, but this is an issue that has been consistent this year.

Le’Veon Bell has been getting plenty of carries and has 357 yards rushing, but his ypc is just 4.4. Bell has to do most of the work to get his yardage.

The Spartans appear to be a team that is going to go as far as their offensive line can take them.

Michigan 63, UMass 13

Michigan looked good for the most part, but that was expected in this game.

Still, the mood after the game was disappointment from coach Brady Hoke.

I think Hoke saw what most of us saw. He saw that Michigan wasn’t overpowering UMass on the front lines. The Minutemen had a season-high rushing total against the Wolverines and Michigan didn’t have much success running the ball up the middle.

Denard Robinson was solid rushing the ball again, but some of his rushes came on scrambles and others came from getting outside the tackles.

Fitz Toussaint had 85 yards rushing, but on 15 carries. Against a team like UMass, you would like to see that average (5.7 ypc) a little higher.

What is also standing out is that Michigan is really lacking in playmakers outside of Robinson. Not just on offense, but defense too. I wrote a column about it in today’s Oakland Press

The Wolverines aren’t getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback from their defensive line and the back seven aren’t creating turnovers. The Wolverines still don’t have an interception this season through three games.

Next week should paint the real picture of what “Team 133” is going to be. I think the Wolverines have the speed to deal with Notre Dame’s defense, but the line is going to have to play much better.

It may take another shootout to win, but a win at Notre Dame right now would be the biggest win any team in the state would have this season.

Keys to victory for MSU/Notre Dame, Michigan/UMass

We are just 24 hours away from another busy Saturday of college football. Here is a look at my three keys to victory for Michigan and Michigan State.

3 Keys for Michigan vs. UMass

Start Fast – UMass doesn’t have much to offer in this game, so Michigan needs to put the Minutemen away quickly. This is a game that should provide an opportunity for a lot of backups and underclassmen to get snaps, so it is important for Michigan to not let this game linger on into the second half.

Find Some Confidence On Defense – The Wolverines have not been strong on defense, particularly against the run and on the defensive line. Michigan needs to find a little confidence this week in that regard. The Wolverines should be able to overpower UMass up front and get into the backfield. Brady Hoke said he wants to see his guys do a better job of getting off blocks this week. If they can’t do that against UMass, there may not be a team they will be able to do it against.

Stay Healthy – This isn’t something Michigan has a lot of control over, but in a game like this, you don’t want to have anyone get injured. Don’t have Denard Robinson take too many hits. Give him the opportunity to make plays, but look to establish Fitzgerald Toussaint and other offensive weapons other than Denard. Also, as said before, get the backups some reps in this game when it gets out of hand.

3 Keys for MSU vs. Notre Dame

Test Golson – Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson is playing in his first true road game under the lights. I am sure he will have some nerves and there is a possibility for mistakes to happen for the Notre Dame offense. The Spartans need to pressure Golson early with different blitz packages and make him have to make quick decisions. The MSU secondary is strong enough to play 1-on-1 coverage in this game, so don’t give Golson time to look for openings. If he is rushed into throwing, it should lead to turnovers.

Win The Battle Up Front – This is talking about the offensive line. So far, MSU has been able to run the ball well, but the Spartans aren’t exactly gashing defenses either. Bell has been steady, but is picking up yards in small chunks. The Notre Dame defense has been very strong thus far, but is untested. MSU will need to be able to establish Bell in this game in order to control the tempo and keep Andrew Maxwell from being under fire all contest. The Irish had four sacks last week against Purdue and forced the Boilermakers into just 19 of 37 passing. If the Spartans have to rely on Maxwell to win, he may not be up to the task.

Special Teams Need To Be Special – I expect points to be at a premium in this game, so every yard will count. Field position will play a big role, as will field goals. The Irish have yet to hit a field goal past 40 yards this season, but their coverage units have been strong. Dan Conroy has a 50-yard field goal this season for MSU, but he is 0-2 from 30-49 yards. Conroy will need to be on his game. Return man Nick Hill could also be a big asset for the Spartans. He is averaging over 15 yards per punt return, and a big return could mean the difference between a win and a loss on Saturday.

The games of Week 2 of the college football season are upon us. Here are my picks for the weekend.

MSU at CMU – 3:30 pm.

I will be live at this game and taking part in a live chat if you are interested in sharing your thoughts.

This game should be a victory for Michigan State, and should be a sizeable one.

Regardless of the environment and atmosphere, the fact is the Spartans are a much better team.

The MSU defense has the ability to completely shut down the CMU offense. Their front seven should contain the Chippewa run game and apply pressure to quarterback Ryan Radcliff, which will lead to turnovers.

The Spartan offense can control tempo with its powerful running game, which will open the door for play action passing against a questionable secondary.

I can see the game being within reach for CMU at halftime, but ultimately look for the Spartans to pull away.

Due to the relationship between coaches Mark Dantonio and Dan Enos, I don’t see MSU trying to embarrass the Chippewas.

Prediction – MSU 37, CMU 13

Air Force at Michigan – 3:30 p.m.

I look for Michigan to really try to put on a show today.

The Wolverines need to re-establish themselves after last week’s loss and the Air Force defense can certainly give up some points.

I’d expect Denard Robinson and Fitzgerald Toussaint to pile up the rushing yards, in excess of 200 yards combined. As Air Force commits to the run, it will open things up for Robinson to hit a few lengthy passes.

Defensively, I think Michigan will stumble a few times against the option, but not enough to allow Air Force to score consistently. This game will be somewhat of a scoring race, and the Falcons won’t be able to match the Wolverines score for score.

Prediction – Michigan 45, Air Force 20

Keys to victory for MSU, Michigan in Week 2

3 keys to victory for MSU vs. Central Michigan

Silence the crowd early: The Chippewas are going to look to feed off the emotion of hosting Michigan State. The crowd of around 35,000 should be on fire early on. The Spartans need to quiet that crowd quickly and now allow the Chippewas to feed off that energy. Getting the ball to start and driving right down the field would be the best way to get that done.

Pound Green Pound: Michigan State established a steady run game against Boise State last week. In the early part of this game, the Spartans should do the same. The Spartans need to give Andrew Maxwell a chance to improve, but not at the expense of the team. MSU should use its bigger offensive line and Le’Veon Bell to set the tone early and then let Maxwell attack the CMU secondary.

Be prepared for anything: The Spartans have a tremendous defense, but they can’t get cocky. Central Michigan could unload the playbook offensively, which means MSU needs to play disciplined football. The linebackers will have to stick to their assignments and watch out for misdirection plays. CMU should know it can’t try to push the ball right up the middle of the MSU defense, so it will look to find other ways to move down the field.

3 keys to victory for Michigan vs. Air Force

Forget last week: It has been said plenty of times by Brady Hoke and many Michigan players, but the Wolverines have to forget about last week’s loss. Dwelling on it will cause the Wolverines to start 0-2. This isn’t an easy game by any means, so Michigan needs to take the Falcons seriously.

Open up the playbook: Michigan was criticized for not using Denard Robinson much in the run game last week. That may have been a conservative approach to playing against a physical team in a non-conference game. However, the Michigan offense needs to find some success this week and gain confidence. With Fitzgerald Toussaint back, I expect Michigan to be more aggressive on offense and work Robinson more into the rushing game. If Michigan wants him to pass, start him off with some quick throws to build his confidence.

Stay disciplined on defense: Similar to what I said about MSU, Michigan needs to play disciplined defense against the Air Force option. If the Wolverines stick to their assignments, they shouldn’t have much trouble containing the option. The more Michigan can force Air Force into third-and-long situation, the better the day will be. 

Thoughts on Michigan's loss to Alabama

Alright, it wasn’t pretty.

There isn’t much positive to say about Michigan’s loss to Alabama.

But, all is not lost.

The Crimson Tide would embarrass 99% of the teams in college football. They are just on another level right now.

Regardless, here are three things that stand out from the game.

The Michigan Defense was exposed

Again, I will temper my argument here a little bit, as Alabama has arguably the best offensive line in the country and their sixth string running back could be an All American anywhere else. However, I still expected more from Michigan on defense. I thought the Wolverines would really make it tough for Alabama to move down the field. Michigan showed up on the opening possession, but then got out-muscled the rest of the way. We all knew the defensive line had some question marks, but that has to be a concern going forward.

Toussaint, Clark would have made no difference

The 1997 Michigan team could have been on the field tonight and lost, Alabama is that strong. Toussaint may have made Michigan more dynamic on offense, but he certainly wasn’t going to make up for 27 points. I think had Michigan had Toussaint, Denard Robinson would have been used differently and not been forced to be a pocket passer.

The world is not ending

The loss hurts. The injury to Blake Countess didn’t help either. But, in the end, the majority of the country expected Michigan to lose, and lose by a large margin. There really is nowhere for Michigan to go, but up. The Wolverines won’t face a tougher defense than it did on Saturday (sorry MSU fans) and they won’t face an offense that is stronger up front. This loss can show Michigan where it needs to improve and will make them a better team in the Big Ten. I don’t think this means Michigan can’t contend for the Big Ten title. It simply means that they can’t contend for a national title, which I didn’t think they would in the first place. The opening weekend was tough for a number of good teams, Michigan included. I still think there is a lot to figure out about the Wolverines.

Toussaint, Clark won't play vs. Alabama, Hoke releases statement

Prior to Michigan leaving Ann Arbor for Saturday’s came against Alabama, Michigan coach Brady Hoke announced that RB Fitzgerald Toussaint and DE Frank Clark won’t play in the contest.

Here is Hoke’s statement on the matter through a press release:

Fitzgerald Toussaint and Frank Clark have been suspended for one game and will not make the trip to Dallas for Saturday's game.

The decision was not easy, but I feel it is in the best interest of this program and for these kids, and those always will be my priorities.  We have choices every day, and you have to be accountable to this program, your teammates, your family and the University of Michigan.

These are our sons.  These are real lives, and I think too often many people forget that.  It's not always just about football, or a football decision.  It's about teaching life lessons, and if this helps these kids or someone else make a right decision later, then we've won.  That is ultimately what we are here for, to help them grow and mature to become better sons, fathers, husbands and members of society.

They are good young men who made poor choices, and we will continue to support them as members of our team and family.

I commend Hoke on the decision. I think it sets a good message for the players and the program. Other coaches wouldn’t do the same thing against an opponent the caliber of Alabama.

What do you think Michigan fans? Are you happy with the decision?

Week 1 MSU & Michigan Picks

It’s finally here.

College football is upon us and there may not be a state with more interest in the next two days than Michigan.

Michigan and Michigan State are in the lone games featuring two ranked teams and both games should be intriguing.

Here are my picks for the weekend.

Michigan State vs. Boise State

This game has so many question marks coming into it. How good is Andrew Maxwell? Is the MSU defense as good as advertised? How will Boise State recover from losing so many starters?

I know the Broncos look depleted, but their program has been strong for many years now because of their ability to recruit and develop talent. I have no doubt that Boise State should be very talented when it steps on the field tonight. The big concern of the Broncos is that they lack experience. There could be some miscues that will play right into the Spartans’ hands.

I expect the game to be close most of the way, but look for MSU to make some plays on both sides of the ball toward the end of the game to get the big victory.

Prediction: MSU 21, Boise State 17

Michigan vs. Alabama

I’ve expected Alabama to dominate this game for months, and while I still do expect the Crimson Tide to win handily, I think Michigan has a better shot than I originally felt.

Alabama should have the talent, but since it is a first start for many on the defense, I expect some mistakes to happen on that end for the Tide.

I look for Michigan to get a big play in the first half to keep the game close, but ultimately I see the Wolverines struggling to move the ball consistently without Fitzgerald Toussaint (who I expect not to play).

The Michigan defense should be able to have some success, but over the course of the game, the size and strength of the Alabama offensive line will win out.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Michigan 14

Keys to Week 1

The college football season is set to begin tonight.

It’s an exciting time around the country and high hopes reside on all campuses, especially at Michigan State and Michigan.

With MSU getting underway tomorrow and Michigan starting on Saturday, here are my keys to victory for both teams.

MSU vs Boise State:

- Start Fast: Normally this would be implied to the offense, but I am actually making reference to the defense. Boise State is breaking in a lot of new pieces, including at quarterback. If the MSU defensive front can get to Joe Southwick early, it is likely to lead to some quick turnovers and good field position for Andrew Maxwell and the offense.

- Establish The Running Game: The best way to truly stop the Boise State offense is to keep it off the field. Also, with Maxwell getting his first start, it is best to have a healthy running game. If Le’Veon Bell, Larry Caper and Nick Hill can consistently move the team down the field and make Maxwell only have to make safe throws, it should lead to a strong night for the Spartans.

- Don’t Get Too Tricky: Mark Dantonio hasn’t shied away from trick plays in big games. However, in this game, Michigan State should be the team setting the tempo and winning the line of scrimmage. The Spartans don’t need to try anything radical to win this game and a failed risk could give Boise State the opening it needs to pull off the upset. Keep the strategy simple and sound.

Michigan vs. Alabama:

- Don’t Lose Before Kickoff: Brady Hoke has done a good job of hyping his team up for this game. There is no doubt that Alabama is the favorite to win this game, but Michigan can’t come in with that attitude. Any bit of intimidation from the Wolverines will cost them the game before it even starts. Michigan has to come out with passion, confidence and energy. I know it sounds like a silly thing to say, but not all players take the field believing they can win.

- Play The Run: The Crimson Tide will be big up front and probably look to pound the rock. Michigan is small on the defensive line, but they have a solid group of linebackers. The Wolverines need to commit those linebackers to the run in the early going to try and get the Crimson Tide off the field. Though A.J. McCarron is a returning starter at quarterback for Alabama, he is the weaker option for the Tide’s offense. Michigan would much rather give McCarron the option of beating it rather than letting Alabama run the ball all game long.

- Establish The Run: This one isn’t real difficult either. With or without Fitzgerald Toussaint, the Wolverines need to be able to run the ball effectively and it can’t be up to Denard Robinson to do all the running. Michigan may have to get creative in the way it moves the ball because Alabama will probably plug up a lot of the running lanes. Michigan won’t be able to win this game if Robinson has to convert a lot of third-and-longs with his arm. If Michigan is able to run the ball consistently, it opens the door for a lot of options for the Wolverines and will keep Alabama guessing on defense.

Tuesday's Teleconference Thoughts from Hoke/Dantonio

The first Big Ten Coaches Teleconference took place on Tuesday.

Here is a collection of thoughts from Michigan coach Brady Hoke and MSU coach Mark Dantonio.

Brady Hoke:

- On representing Big Ten against Alabama: “Anytime you are playing games against other conferences, obviously, your school, your team and the people you represent, that’s an important part. At the same time, the Big Ten Conference, we’ve got great academic institutions, great athletic programs and great schools in this conference. There is no question that is part of when you play a team from another league.”

- On how fall camp was impacted by opening with Alabama: “I think (it was) and I think we would say so as a staff. You go into every opener a little bit unsure of what you have as a football team and I think that is something you find out, good and bad. Playing the defending national champions, a very well coached and good football team that has been put together over five or six years of recruiting, we will have our hands full. At the same time, I think you look forward to playing in these kind of games at a different site and playing great football teams.”

- On the challenges Alabama poses at the line of scrimmage: “I think on both sides of the ball. We feel that their offensive line is, if not the best, one of the best offensive lines as a unit. They have four or five starters back and they are physical at the point of attack. They are coached well. They are big. They are a big group and I don’t think we are quite that big of a defensive line. On the other side of it, we have had some holes to fill when you lose Mark Huyge and you lose David Molk. Ricky Barnum has done a nice job at center in the spring and at fall camp. Left guard, Elliott Mealer has done a tremendous job and (Michael) Schofield at right tackle. We are different. Every team is different every year, but we will be excited about what is going on on Saturday.

- On scheduling marquee opponents in non-conference play: “We like it. We like it as a program and I like it personally. I think when you want to be the best and you want to be champions and all those things, you need to play the best and play those programs that are at a high level. We think as a team that that is just going to make us better as a team when we get into the Big Ten. I am very comfortable opening up with Alabama.”

- On what the team needs to improve on this year: “Well, first and foremost, we need to do a better job of taking care of the football. There were times last year where decision making or fundamentals wasn’t as good as it needed to be. Near the end of the year, we needed to do a better job of getting the ball back for our offense and maybe stealing a possession. We are a different team than a year ago, so our defensive front is going to be a part that we are really interested to see how we are all going to react and play. The kicking game and our return games are something we feel we can do a better job with.”

- On Fitzgerald Toussaint’s status for Saturday’s game: “We have not made any decision on what we are going to do. That decision will come before game time, obviously, but right now he’s been practicing and he’s been getting reps and doing all the things that guys do, so we’ll just see.”

- Is Toussaint a game-time decision: “We’ll see.”

- Who would start if Toussaint doesn’t: “Vince Smith has played a lot of football for us. Thomas Rawls played some ball for us a year ago and Justice Hayes….I mean, all three of those guys are capable and available.”

Mark Dantonio:

- On carrying the Big Ten banner in the opener vs. Boise State: “I think collectively we as a group will stand together at the end of the day. But I think more importantly, it’s how we play and how Michigan State plays right now. Everybody is chasing the dream. It starts this weekend for so many different football teams and there is a lot of optimism out there. You really can’t worry about the end result, which conference is stronger at this point and time. You are just trying to be one of those people that gets it going within your own conference. That’s how we take it. We aren’t going out there and representing the Big Ten Conference as much as we are putting on the green and white and representing Michigan State today. But, collectively as a group, we certainly are extremely proud of the heritages and traditions and the strength of the Big Ten Conference.”

- On if Michigan State has become a national power given the last two seasons: “Well I think we are in the conversation, but every year is a new year. We will have to see how we play and play through this. I think that Boise, themselves, have beaten Oregon, (Virginia) Tech and Georgia in the last three years on opening games, so it’s a great challenge for us. It’s a night game here at Spartan Stadium. It will be an exciting atmosphere, but we are going to have to play. We have to play well.”

- On having a premiere opening game to start the season: “I think it was 2008 when our athletic director came to me and asked me if we wanted to play Boise….whenever it was, I can’t remember. It would be a nationally televised game and on a Friday night and all those things. I knew the reputation of Boise State and I knew coach (Chris) Petersen as a person, somewhat, and I knew they had a great program. I thought it would be good for our program, to test us early, and obviously to jump in with both feet. We decided to do that and what it says to the whole ramification of this game is that Boise is going to play anyone, anywhere, and they are going to come to play. Michigan State is not going to back away from a challenge as well. If they want to play, we’ll play. If it was productive for both teams to play and for both universities, we would do this. I have a tremendous amount of respect for how they play and how hard they play.”

- On sophomore defensive end Marcus Rush: “Marcus is a very exciting player to watch. He has a quick body and does a great job with his hands. He runs extremely well. I see him picking up where he left off. He gets himself going before a game. He has a great motor. He is just one of the guys. He was a Freshman All-American. He is one of the guys that was very productive last year, along with some of these other guys you don’t hear as much about. He’s a very good football player and he’s only going to be a redshirt sophomore. He’s a guy that we’re planning on having a great, outstanding year, but again, we are starting over. There is a lot of optimism, but we are all starting over, so we have to earn our spurs.”

The Michigan vs. MSU Checklist

The anxiousness for college football games is growing by the minute.

But the debate never has to end.

Today I will break down each position group for Michigan and Michigan State, sort of like a checklist, to see who comes into the season with the better team on paper.

QUARTERBACKS – This is an easy one. Denard Robinson is in his third season as starter and even the backup, Devin Gardner, has more snaps in live action than MSU’s first-year starter, Andrew Maxwell. Maxwell could be good but it would be very hard to see him being better than Robinson. Advantage Michigan

RUNNING BACKS – This is a tough call, but I think the Wolverines have the edge here. Fitzgerald Toussaint appears to be the best back of the group, but at this time it is unknown how many games he could miss from a suspension. MSU has a good group of backs that could produce more yards this year, but if you factor Robinson’s rushing ability, Michigan should have the stronger rushing attack. Advantage Michigan

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT END – Michigan has the clear edge here. The Spartans don’t have a returning starter at the position and will be playing a lot of underclassmen. Michigan isn’t overly loaded with experience either, but have guys like Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon, who have some chemistry with Robinson. Advantage Michigan

OFFENSIVE LINE – Michigan might have the best single player on the line in Taylor Lewan, but Michigan State has four starters back from a group that allowed just 16 sacks in 2011. Advantage MSU

DEFENSIVE LINE – MSU has the clear edge in this one. William Gholston is one of the top defensive ends in the country and he is joined on the other end by Marcus Rush. Defensive tackle is a question, but the ends should be strong enough to help overcome the issues up the middle. Michigan is lacking in experience up front and now has some depth issues due to injuries and suspensions. Advantage MSU

LINEBACKERS – Both teams should be strong at linebacker, but MSU has a slight edge in my eyes. The Spartans have a pair of 2011 All-Big Ten selections in Denicos Allen and Max Bullough. Michigan returns all three starters, but the trio doesn’t quite have the numbers that the MSU trio does. Advantage MSU

SECONDARY – Again, both should be solid, but I like MSU’s unit over Michigan’s. Johnny Adams has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the country and he is one of three starters back for MSU. For Michigan, three starters are also back, but the Wolverines don’t quite have the same production out of their secondary. Advantage MSU

SPECIAL TEAMS – Got to go with Michigan State here. Dan Conroy struggled with some short kicks, but was 8-for-9 in FG’s between 30-50 yards. Punter Mike Sadler has a better average and more punts inside the 20 than Will Hagerup of Michigan. The Spartans also have better numbers in the return game, led by Nick Hill. Advantage MSU

COACHING – It’s easy for Michigan fans to want to immediately say Brady Hoke is the better coach, but he still has to prove that. One season doesn’t make him better than Mark Dantonio right now. I am not saying he can’t be the better coach over the long haul, but right now, I have to give the nod to Dantonio. Certainly the recruiting is going in Hoke’s favor. If that recruiting translates on the field, Hoke will have the edge soon. Advantage MSU

That puts the tally at 6-3 for Michigan State. However, some of the positions that MSU gets the nod are closer than the ones where Michigan tops MSU. Quarterback and receiver stand out. It appears on paper both teams should be equipped for a strong year, which is what should make this season a great one.

Michigan Season Breakdown

Just like I did yesterday, by breaking down the Michigan State season and giving my prediction for the season, today I do the same for the Michigan Wolverines.

As I make these predictions, keep in mind I can’t assume injuries, and I am expecting Fitzgerald Toussaint and Frank Clark to sit out the season opener with Alabama.

2012 Michigan Schedule & Predictions

Sept. 1 vs. Alabama: Sorry Wolverine fans, I don’t see this going well. It doesn’t mean that Michigan won’t have a good season, it just means the Wolverines aren’t at the Alabama level quite yet. (L, 0-1)

Sept 8 vs. Air Force: There is some potential for trouble here due to the quirky Air Force offense, but I suspect Michigan will be ready to put on a show in the home opener. (W, 1-1)

Sept. 15 vs. UMass: This shouldn’t be much of a game at all. If it is, that is a bad sign. (W, 2-1)

Sept. 22 at Notre Dame: Notre Dame has payback on the mind, but I think that Michigan edges the Irish on the road. The Irish have had problems dealing with Denard Robinson, and I suspect that will continue. (W, 3-1)

Oct. 6 at Purdue: Purdue should be improving, but not enough to beat Michigan this year. The Wolverines should be able to take the Big Ten opener comfortably. (W, 4-1)

Oct. 13 vs. Illinois: With MSU lurking next week, I see the potential for a letdown in this game, but I still think Michigan will pull out the win. Tim Beckman will have a wide-open offense, but I don’t look for the Illinois defense to be able to contain the Wolverines. (W, 5-1)

Oct. 20 vs. Michigan State: If you read my MSU breakdown already, there is no surprise here. I think Michigan ends the losing streak to the Spartans in a hard-fought game that will come down to a few big plays. (W, 6-1)

Oct. 27 at Nebraska: Michigan handled Nebraska last year at home, but the Cornhuskers are much tougher in Lincoln. After beating MSU, I see Michigan having an off day and getting their first Big Ten loss. (L, 6-2)

Nov. 3 at Minnesota: The loss to Nebraska will be a wake-up call for the Wolverines and they will come into Minnesota and make a statement on the Gophers. (W, 7-2)

Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern: Northwestern can be a problem for teams, but the Wildcats are too inconsistent to pull the upset in this one. (W, 8-2)

Nov. 17 vs. Iowa: Iowa is a team that has given Michigan problems in recent history and I expect the same thing in this game. Look for this game to come down to the wire once again, only Michigan finds the way to win in the home finale. (W, 9-2)

Nov. 24 at Ohio State: I don’t see Michigan getting this one. The Buckeyes still have some issues, but with the postseason ban, this is their national title game. Urban Meyer has been very open with his passion for this game and he will have his team, and the home crowd, ready to go to war with Michigan. The Wolverines will be in the game until the end, but come up short. (L, 9-3)

Dec. 1 vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Championship): Despite 2 Big Ten losses, I see Michigan, MSU, Nebraska, and Iowa all huddled up in the Legends Division race. Michigan will get the nod on a tiebreaker. In this game, I see the Badgers having the edge. They will have an easier road to get to the title game and the experience of being in the game last year. I think Wisconsin has the steadier offense that can keep Denard off the field for long periods of time. (L, 9-4)

So, 9-4. I know Michigan fans will feel bittersweet about this. They will like beating MSU and making the championship game, but probably disagree about losses to Nebraska and Ohio State, and maybe even to Wisconsin. I think this schedule is too tough for Michigan, much tougher than last year. To me, if Michigan makes it to the title game, it is a much bigger accomplishment than the 11-2 record of last year.

Hoke with a tough call on Toussaint

In the world of college football there is a loose interpretation of the term “doing what is right.”

There isn’t a program in the country that doesn’t have “off the field issues” involving players.

Some more serious than others.

Some involving more talented players than others.

The conundrum always comes with handing out punishment. It is a tight spot for the coaches of the program because their decisions are reflected in two key ways.

1. If you punish a big star, it could result in losses, which ultimately impacts the coach’s job.

2. If you fail to hold a big star accountable, it sends the message to the other players that they can get away with making mistakes as long as they produce on the field.

Brady Hoke finds himself is this very spot right now as running back Fitzgerald Toussaint is suspended from the team currently due to a DUI arrest in the offseason. Defensive end Frank Clark is also suspended from the team after being charged with second-degree home invasion. Clark has some promise and can help the team, but Toussaint is really the focus here.

If Michigan is to be successful, it is believed that Toussaint will be a big part of that. He rushed for 1,041 yards and nine touchdowns last season and took a lot of the pressure of Denard Robinson in both the run and pass game.

Toussaint will also be very valuable and necessary if Michigan hopes to contend with Alabama in the season opener. Even if he is on the field, it will be a big uphill climb for the Wolverines to win.

So, the question is, what does Hoke do? Do you keep Toussaint from playing the season opener, or perhaps even longer? Or, does missing some of training camp equate to a worthy punishment?

Hoke sent a big message last year by redshirting Darryl Stonum for the 2011 season following his second DUI arrest. Many applauded the move and I also feel it sent a good message to his players about being accountable (Stonum ultimately would be dismissed from the team for good in January for another incident off the field).

But now, Hoke’s punishment of Stonum must equate properly to the likes of Toussaint and Clark. I am not saying Toussaint should sit the year. It was a first offense. But, I am not sure missing just one game sends a clear message.

What Hoke does with Toussaint will go a long way in defining his character. Given his track record, I expect Hoke will do the right thing, and not just in a figurative sense.