Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Prediction

Michigan State returns to the football field Saturday night to face TCU in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

This game is actually quite meaningful for both teams, as each has had a disappointing year, and a bowl victory would put a little positive spin to it heading into spring football for the 2013 season.

I expect the game to be low scoring, like most Michigan State games. Both teams are stronger on defense than they are on offense and I suspect neither offense will come out with a completely different look that the opposing team wasn’t ready for.

With MSU’s defense banged up a little bit in the secondary, as Johnny Adams may not play due to turf toe, that opens the door for TCU to be aggressive in the passing game. The Spartans will need to get pressure on TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin and not allow the Horned Frogs to develop deep passing plays.

I don’t expect Le’Veon Bell to be able to take over the game. He should be about as fresh as he can be, but the Spartans still have issues on the offensive line. The game will ride on Andrew Maxwell’s arm, and I thought he was regressing as the season went on. I don’t know that a month of preparation will do enough to make Maxwell into an improved quarterback. He will get his chance to win the game in the fourth quarter, as he has had in most games all season, but I see him coming up short again.

Prediction: TCU 16, Michigan State 13

News and Notes from Dantonio's weekly presser

Mark Dantonio held his weekly press conference on Tuesday. Here are some news and notes to come out of that.

Depth Chart Notes

- Tight end Dion Sims is not listed on this week’s depth chart. Dantonio said that Sims won’t play this week but will test out the ankle in the next few days to determine just how long he could be out. Paul Lang, Andrew Gleichert and Derek Hoebing are all listed as possible starters at tight end.

- Nick Hill is no longer the starter at punt returner. MSU lists Andre Sims Jr. and Le’Veon Bell as the possible starters. Dantonio wanted to take the stress off Hill, but he still has confidence in him to catch a punt.

- At the Star Linebacker position, MSU lists Chris Norman OR Tawian Jones as the starter.

- Lawrence Thomas OR Niko Palazeti will start at fullback.

- R.J. Williams OR Kurtis Drummond at listed at starters at free safety.

- Aaron Burbridge holds his starting spot at receiver after his impressive showing at Indiana.

Dantonio thoughts

- Felt the Indiana game was a tale of two halves. He thought the team didn’t do very well the first half but played extremely well the second half.

- Felt the team was going to make a statement in the second half, good or bad. They made it a good one by coming back to win.

- He singled out the play of Max Bullough, Burbridge, Bennie Fowler and Bell as to who stepped up in the win.

- When asked about Johnny Adams, Dantonio said he should have had some help on the deep balls he was beat on. Pointed to missed assignments from the safety that left Adams in a tough spot. He is sticking with Adams.

- He felt the team was ready to play on Saturday but they got gassed and disoriented early on. Said it was tough to simulate Indiana’s style of play.

- Dantonio said that teams are never as bad as people say and never as good either. Felt that two losses to undefeated teams, with one of them by just one point, is no cause for too much concern. Had they beat Ohio State, Dantonio feels people would be singing a different tune.

- Said the positives of the situation is that they have raised expectations at MSU. The negative that comes with that is the additional pressure. He said pressure is good, but stress is not and they won’t stress about what they can’t control.

- Dantonio feels Andrew Maxwell is growing as a quarterback and that he has great command of the huddle. Said in the growing process you can take a step back and then take two steps forward. Felt after the first quarter at Indiana, Maxwell played very well. Dantonio would like to see Maxwell do a better job of turning the bad plays into good plays when something breaks down.

- When it comes to the offensive line, the coaches realized Blake Treadwell wasn’t ready to play after the first quarter at Indiana. Not sure if he will be ready to go on Saturday. He could start which would impact both the guard and center positions with Jack Allen in the mix at both spots.

- On the personal fouls, Dantonio didn’t agree on all the calls on Saturday. He said there is a huge emphasis on protecting players these days and that makes it difficult for the refs. Some of the calls were obvious, but not all of them.

- Thomas is a player that could see more action in the passing game as the fullback. Dantonio feels that he has a similar look and style to Sims.

Final thoughts from Week 6 games

For just the second time this year both Michigan and Michigan State won on the same day.

Despite both coming out victorious on Saturday, the moods of both teams have to be very different.

Michigan picked up an impressive 44-13 win at Purdue while Michigan State continues to look unimpressive in its 31-27 win at Indiana. Here are my closing thoughts on both contests.

MSU at Indiana

Let’s start with the bad.

Michigan State won, but did little to inspire hope for the future.

After three weeks of sloppy football, the Spartans once again came out flat against the Hoosiers. They once again dropped passes. They once again committed undisciplined penalties. They once again struggled to open up running lanes for Le’Veon Bell. They once again gave up big plays on defense.

I think that about covers it.

Indiana came out right in the beginning of the game and took it to the MSU defense. The Hoosiers had absolutely no respect for Johnny Adams, as they threw it deep, and succeeded, against him many times.

The offense can’t get into rhythm because the offensive line is playing so poorly. Injuries surely play a part in that, but the Spartans should have the depth on the line to move the ball against a team like Indiana.

Le’Veon Bell had 121 yards, but it took 37 carries again. The Spartans could barely get 1 yard when it had to, and they usually did because Bell fought his way to fall forward.

Pass protection wasn’t very strong, and when it was, it seemed like Andrew Maxwell was getting happy feet in the pocket because he was anticipating a rush that wasn’t there.

The only thing MSU can take from Saturday’s game is that it overcame a 17-point deficit, but I truly question whether it had more to do with what the Spartans did or because Indiana went completely conservative in the second half.

The Hoosiers that took the first in the first half didn’t show up in the second half. They made it very easy for Michigan State to get the comeback victory.

I thought Aaron Burbridge played well in his first start at receiver, but even he had a key drop on a third down. He made up for it, making some tough catches late, and I suspect he will be a strong player for the Spartans going forward.

Burbridge will have to step up, along with everyone else, if tight end Dion Sims is seriously hurt.

Saturday’s win felt similar to the Eastern Michigan victory. It didn’t feel like it was even a win, more like a tie.

We keep waiting for Michigan State to turn things around and improve, but perhaps this is just what the Spartans are this season.

Michigan at Purdue

I thought Michigan would have a much tougher time than it did.

Saturday’s 44-13 win at Purdue was a good sign for the Wolverines.

The Michigan defense continued to play strong, holding Purdue to just 213 yards, while the offense racked up 408 yards and Denard Robinson was the Denard Robinson we have been accustomed to watching these past three years.

If I am being picky, I would say Michigan had a chance to put the game away sooner in the second half, but settled for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Coming into the game, I said that Michigan needed to be smart with its play calling and the Wolverines were. They didn’t put Robinson in a position to have to force tough throws. They let the running game dictate the game and used it to set up some big pass plays.

Michigan should be able to play that same style of offense against most Big Ten teams. If the defense can continue to get better, it makes the Wolverines a legit Big Ten contender.

Though Michigan didn’t pass for many yards, Devin Gardner and Devin Funchess made some nice receiving plays and it appears that the Wolverines are starting to get some playmakers other than Robinson.

Michigan State is a team that seems to be regressing, or at the very best, staying the same. Michigan, on the other hand, is a team that looks as if it is getting better, especially on defense. 

Keys to victory for MSU vs. Indiana & Michigan vs. Purdue

Michigan and Michigan State hit the road for Big Ten play on Saturday. Here is a look at some key to victory for both teams.

MSU at Indiana, Noon

Avoid the big play on defense – The Michigan State defense has been good, but not as good as many of us expected. Its big flaw is allowing the big play, especially in the passing game. The Hoosiers surprisingly come into Saturday’s game as the top passing offense in the Big Ten. While you can’t expect Indiana to light up the air against the Spartans, the Hoosiers may only need to connect on a few big throws to win the game. The secondary must avoid that and not get beat deep.

Be a quick-strike offense – That doesn’t mean big plays. What I mean by this is get the ball out of Andrew Maxwell’s hands quickly in the passing game. Use bubble screens, swing passes and slant routes to attack the Indiana secondary. With the injuries to the offensive line, you can’t expect there to be a lot of time for pass protection. Getting short, quick passes early will build some confidence in Maxwell and the receivers and open the door for long passes later in the game. Indiana also has a poor rushing defense, so the opportunity for Le’Veon Bell to have a big game will be there. Make things easy on Maxwell and the line by getting the ball outside the tackles in both the running and passing games.

Win the turnover battle – Michigan State’s defense has given up the big play and not been creating them. For having a hyped defense, the Spartans have not been great at getting to the quarterback and intercepting passes. The front four has to pressure the quarterback, get sacks and force fumbles. The secondary needs to make plays when they get the opportunity. The defense can make life a lot easier for the offense by giving them the ball with good field position thanks to a turnover.

Michigan at Purdue, 4 p.m.

Stick with your strength – Obviously the issue in the loss to Notre Dame was turnovers. The offense was able to continually move the ball down field, but turned the ball over before getting points. Purdue comes into Saturday’s game as the top rushing defense in the Big Ten, but the Boilermakers haven’t exactly faced offensive juggernauts this year. Michigan needs to do what works and that is run the football. If Michigan can’t run the ball consistently, it is going to be a problem. I am not saying avoid the passing game, but be smart about it, especially in the red zone. Three points are still better than none.

Avoid mistakes early – This is similar to my first point, but with this being the first Big Ten road game for Michigan, it needs to do what it can to control the atmosphere early on. That makes the opening offensive drives all that more important. Don’t give Purdue, or its fans, any reason to really get into the game by giving up a big play offensively. The Boilermakers have three interception returns for touchdowns already this year. If Robinson forces a bad pass or Michigan decides to be overly aggressive, it could lead to a big play for the Boilermakers and put the Wolverines in an uphill climb all game.

Get off the field on Third Down – The Michigan defense took a step forward against Notre Dame and gave the Wolverine fans some hope moving forward. Purdue appears to have a better overall offense than Notre Dame, as the Boilermakers average 42.5 points and 463.5 yards per game. The big key to Purdue’s offense this season has been third down conversion. The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten in that stat, converting on 58.5% of their attempts. If Michigan wants to win this game, the Wolverines need to get off the field on third down and now allow Purdue to systematically move down the field.

The Michigan vs. MSU Checklist

The anxiousness for college football games is growing by the minute.

But the debate never has to end.

Today I will break down each position group for Michigan and Michigan State, sort of like a checklist, to see who comes into the season with the better team on paper.

QUARTERBACKS – This is an easy one. Denard Robinson is in his third season as starter and even the backup, Devin Gardner, has more snaps in live action than MSU’s first-year starter, Andrew Maxwell. Maxwell could be good but it would be very hard to see him being better than Robinson. Advantage Michigan

RUNNING BACKS – This is a tough call, but I think the Wolverines have the edge here. Fitzgerald Toussaint appears to be the best back of the group, but at this time it is unknown how many games he could miss from a suspension. MSU has a good group of backs that could produce more yards this year, but if you factor Robinson’s rushing ability, Michigan should have the stronger rushing attack. Advantage Michigan

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT END – Michigan has the clear edge here. The Spartans don’t have a returning starter at the position and will be playing a lot of underclassmen. Michigan isn’t overly loaded with experience either, but have guys like Roy Roundtree and Jeremy Gallon, who have some chemistry with Robinson. Advantage Michigan

OFFENSIVE LINE – Michigan might have the best single player on the line in Taylor Lewan, but Michigan State has four starters back from a group that allowed just 16 sacks in 2011. Advantage MSU

DEFENSIVE LINE – MSU has the clear edge in this one. William Gholston is one of the top defensive ends in the country and he is joined on the other end by Marcus Rush. Defensive tackle is a question, but the ends should be strong enough to help overcome the issues up the middle. Michigan is lacking in experience up front and now has some depth issues due to injuries and suspensions. Advantage MSU

LINEBACKERS – Both teams should be strong at linebacker, but MSU has a slight edge in my eyes. The Spartans have a pair of 2011 All-Big Ten selections in Denicos Allen and Max Bullough. Michigan returns all three starters, but the trio doesn’t quite have the numbers that the MSU trio does. Advantage MSU

SECONDARY – Again, both should be solid, but I like MSU’s unit over Michigan’s. Johnny Adams has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the country and he is one of three starters back for MSU. For Michigan, three starters are also back, but the Wolverines don’t quite have the same production out of their secondary. Advantage MSU

SPECIAL TEAMS – Got to go with Michigan State here. Dan Conroy struggled with some short kicks, but was 8-for-9 in FG’s between 30-50 yards. Punter Mike Sadler has a better average and more punts inside the 20 than Will Hagerup of Michigan. The Spartans also have better numbers in the return game, led by Nick Hill. Advantage MSU

COACHING – It’s easy for Michigan fans to want to immediately say Brady Hoke is the better coach, but he still has to prove that. One season doesn’t make him better than Mark Dantonio right now. I am not saying he can’t be the better coach over the long haul, but right now, I have to give the nod to Dantonio. Certainly the recruiting is going in Hoke’s favor. If that recruiting translates on the field, Hoke will have the edge soon. Advantage MSU

That puts the tally at 6-3 for Michigan State. However, some of the positions that MSU gets the nod are closer than the ones where Michigan tops MSU. Quarterback and receiver stand out. It appears on paper both teams should be equipped for a strong year, which is what should make this season a great one.