It's okay to say both Michigan and MSU are good

A rivalry is meant to be competitive.

One side not giving the other credit for their accomplishments.

That is what makes it a rivalry.

But, if we can all take a second to step back, maybe we can all agree that Michigan and Michigan State are in a good place right now on the basketball floor.

Spartan Fans – Can we admit that the last 12 months have been pretty good for John Beilein and the Wolverines? Similar to you this season, Michigan struggled its way into the postseason last year. However, it found the right formula and took off in the NCAA Tournament, doing something State hasn’t done since 2009, and that is play for the national championship. Combine that with a Big Ten regular season championship this season, and I can understand why it would be frustrating for Spartan fans. However, you have to give credit where it is due.

DON’T PLAY THE INJURY CARD. Yes, MSU has been dealing with injuries all season, but try to look me in the eye and say you expected Michigan to flourish without Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Then try and tell me the same thing when you found out Mitch McGary was basically not going to play all season. You can’t. Michigan did amazing things this season and showed great development in its role players from last season. John Beilein deserves a look at being the National Coach of the Year.

18 GAMES MEAN MORE THAN 3. Michigan State looked great this weekend, but a Big Ten Tournament title doesn’t trump a regular season title. Don’t even try to make that argument, because if the roles were reversed, you would laugh at Michigan fans for trying to claim that. Accept that Michigan swept the regular season and won the regular season title. It happened and it is a big accomplishment for that program.

Michigan Fans – Can we admit that Michigan State looks like the better team today than Michigan? I know the Wolverines won the season series, 2-1, but you can’t deny that Sunday’s Michigan State team is the one many were expecting all season. The Spartans look to be peaking at the right time and they are probably putting the fear in all other teams right now. It doesn’t diminish all that Michigan has done this season. Michigan State should be the better team on paper, which should make your Big Ten regular season title that much sweeter.

MARCH IS KING. Just like a regular season title means more than a conference tournament title, a run in March means more than anything else. The Final Four banner holds supremacy over a league title. If Michigan State makes a run to the Final Four, or even wins the national title, that will be the trump card this season. It was your trump card last season when you reached the title game and MSU lost in the Sweet 16.

YOU NEED BANNERS. In football, Michigan fans teased Michigan State for decades about Big Ten titles and Rose Bowl appearances. Michigan claimed, and rightfully so during a stretch, that it had national aspirations while MSU was a regional program. The same can be said for Michigan basketball. Despite last year’s run, Michigan is still fighting to sustain national success over a period of time. You do that with banners. Michigan winning the Big Ten this season was a big step for the program. It needed that to continue to establish itself as a strong basketball program nationally. Michigan State doesn’t need that right now. While the Spartans always want to win the Big Ten, they have established themselves already. Michigan State has been about March for some time now. Their goals are bigger than the Big Ten when it comes to basketball. Michigan is working toward that point, but they need to string together a few solid postseason runs before they can be a Final Four contender year in and year out.

So, can we all agree?

Who knows, maybe there will be a fourth meeting with everything at stake. That would be something.

Who should have the better 2013-14 season, Michigan or Michigan State?

It appears as if most of the dust has settled when it comes to which Michigan and Michigan State players are entering the NBA Draft.

Though Adreian Payne has yet to make his decision official, most signs point to Payne returning to the Spartans for his senior season.

If that is indeed the case, we can now start to take a look at how the Spartans and Wolverines are shaping up for the 2013-14 season.

The Spartans are largely the same team coming back from this past season, with the exception of the loss of Derrick Nix. Despite the loss of Nix, you can probably expect some development from the likes of Matt Costello and Branden Dawson.

Costello showed some signs of being a capable player once he shook the freshman nerves. Dawson has always been a great athlete, but he struggled this year with his touch on offense. Part of that could have been from coming off the knee injury. With a healthy offseason to improve his shot and work on his touch around the basket, I think Dawson should become a much better player.

The Spartans should also get some improvement out of the likes of Gary Harris, Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine. It is unclear if Keith Appling has hit his peak, but he certainly has shown the ability to be one of the best players in the Big Ten at times.

When it comes to Michigan, the Wolverines have a strong foundation returning with the trio of freshmen starters coming back. Nik Stuaskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary will each need to step up in terms of offensive production with the loss of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.

I was surprised that Hardaway Jr. decided to go pro, just because I think he would have benefited from a year of being “the guy” for Michigan.

Along with the starters, Michigan will have Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan back to help contribute. I think Morgan struggled all year due to his injuries, so a healthy Morgan could have a much greater impact.

The Wolverines will have to rely more on their incoming freshmen class than MSU. Part of that is because the Spartans don’t have much of a class and the other part is that the Wolverines will need help at point guard from Derrick Walton. Zak Irvin could also make an immediate impact at small forward.

Of the two teams, I think the bigger question marks come from Michigan. Will the loss of Burke be too great to overcome? Not only did he handle the ball and do the most scoring, he also did a good job of getting open looks for his teammates. McGary’s strong tournament run was aided by Burke, so it will be interesting to see if McGary can still be an offensive force if he has to create his own shots.

Both teams seem to be set for a good 2013-14 season, but it is unclear just how successful they will be.

Who do you think is primed to have the better 2013-14 season if the teams are built the way they currently are?

Which team is built to have a better 2013-14 basketball season?

Trey Burke to go down as one of Michigan's all-time greats

Nobody is really surprised that Trey Burke is entering the NBA Draft.

It’s almost been a foregone conclusion since midseason.

Burke made his decision to leave Michigan for the NBA Draft official on Sunday afternoon and the country is now deprived of a great player with two years of eligibility left.

Burke, though he played for just two years, will go down as one of the all-time greats to wear a Michigan uniform.

Stats aside, Burke cemented his legacy at Michigan by helping the Wolverines get to the national championship game. There is no question that he didn’t always play his best during the tournament run, but his efforts in the comeback against Kansas were legendary in their own right.

While Burke came up short in getting Michigan the national championship, he does leave the program with a Big Ten title and a Final Four to his credit.

He may not go down as the greatest Wolverine in history, but he has to be close. Burke’s impact has a little more of a greater impact because he was the one to lead Michigan back to a national level of success the program hadn’t had since the Fab Five days.

Michigan is a lot better off as a program with Burke leaving than it was when he arrived. If Michigan is ever able to get back to a national title game, or even win the championship, Burke will deserve some credit for building the foundation of success.

I am not sure what awaits him in the NBA, or how his game will translate to the next level, but I enjoyed watching him compete this past season. You could tell he really left it all on the floor when the game was over.

How hard will Michigan be hit by the 2013 NBA Draft?

It was a great run for Michigan.

I for one didn’t see the Wolverines coming within six points of a national championship at the end of the regular season, but Michigan really played its best basketball at the right time.

There are plenty of ways you can analyze Monday’s game. You can be critical of the coaches or players or the refs, but I am just going to let that all go.

Michigan had a great season and accomplished something big for its program by reaching the national championship game. I didn’t think John Beilein was a coach capable of taking Michigan to that next level, but he proved me wrong and he deserves credit for that. I think he has secured his spot as head coach of the Wolverines for a long time to come.

This season had the makings of being a disappointing one after Michigan failed to win a Big Ten title of any kind, but the Final Four and national championship game appearances made up for all that.

This last month can do a lot for the Michigan program going forward. It should do a lot for recruiting, which is already going well for the Wolverines (three ESPN Top 100 recruits joining the team next season).

Next season will certainly be interesting for Michigan, but the big question heading into the offseason is who will be back for the Wolverines?

Four of Michigan’s starting five all have the potential to leave for the NBA.

It is more than expected that Trey Burke is leaving. The sophomore point guard nearly left after his freshman year, but decided to stay. Now he is the National Player of the Year and doesn’t have any reason to come back outside of wanting to win a national title. I’d be shocked if Burke returned. He is a guaranteed lottery pick.

Junior Tim Hardaway Jr. also seems set to leave. I personally think he could benefit from coming back and being the focal point of the Michigan offense. Hardaway disappeared at times throughout the season and another year to develop his shot would be beneficial in my opinion. His family pedigree helps his draft status, but I am not sure he’s ready.

Glenn Robinson III also has the family background to go pro, but I really think he needs a second year of college. The freshman has good length, at 6-6, but I think he could use another year in a strength and conditioning program to bulk up a little bit. He was frequently out-muscled when playing defense this year and became somewhat of a defensive liability for Michigan. With his athleticism, Robinson III can be a great pro player if he develops his shot. He was just a 32 percent shooting from 3-point land and 67 percent shooter at the free-throw line.

Mitch McGary wasn’t really on the NBA radar entering the tournament, but he certainly is now. I don’t expect him to leave, but his stocker has never been better. He already has pretty good size at 6-10, 250 pounds, and his outside shooting has noticeably improved. McGary also runs the floor well and has great court awareness. I still think it would be wise for him to return to Michigan and work on his post moves and try to develop his scoring inside with both hands. I think McGary could really dominate if he continues to develop. He would be a featured player for Michigan and I think he could be a Player of the Year Candidate with another year of progress.

So, of the four, how many do you think will return. Right now, I think Burke and Hardaway Jr. are leaving. I am on the fence about Robinson III. He may not feel comfortable coming back with the others leaving, or he could embrace the challenge of having to be a featured player. I think McGary will be back for sure, which will help Michigan a great deal.

How many players will leave Michigan for the NBA?

Michigan vs. Louisville National Championship Game Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 1 Louisville

Time: 9:20PM ET

Venue: Georgia Dome

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 31-7; Louisville 34-5

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.5 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.3 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Louisville stat leaders: Points – Russ Smith (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Gorgui Dieng (9.4 rpg); Assists – Peyton Siva (5.7 apg); Steals – Siva (2.2 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W5, Louisville W15

Point Spread: Louisville -4

Prediction: Well, it all comes down to this. On paper, this should be an outstanding game. Both teams like to push the pace on offense and get in transition. Louisville has an aggressive defense, but could be exposed by a team like Michigan that handles the ball well. Michigan’s defense will have its hands full, but the Wolverines should be able to pose some problems for Louisville’s top scorer, Russ Smith. Smith stands just 6-1, which means 6-6 Tim Hardaway Jr. should be able to contest his shots. Smith has scored at least 21 points in all five tournament games. If Michigan can slow him down, it severely hurts Louisville’s chances to win. The Louisville defense has the luxury of having 6-11 center Gorgui Dieng patrolling the paint. Similar to Kansas’ Jeff Withey, Dieng has racked up a lot of blocks this season and he alters a lot of shots with his length. Michigan will have a hard time scoring with dribble penetration when Dieng is on the floor, but that could also setup Mitch McGary to get some easy points if Trey Burke can draw Dieng away from him. Michigan is fully capable of winning this game, but the Wolverines will need a solid 40 minutes to do so. Michigan can’t struggle down the stretch like it did against Syracuse. Louisville will do a better job of capitalizing on Michigan’s mistakes. The Cardinals have also faced plenty of deficits toward the end of the season and still rallied to win. No matter what Michigan does on Monday, Louisville won’t give up. The Cardinals have the better coach in Rick Pitino (in my opinion) and I think that will play a big role in this game. Though Michigan is playing a high level, I picked Louisville to win it all when the field was announced, so I am not backing away from that pick now. Louisville 72, Michigan 69

Michigan vs. Syracuse Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 4 Syracuse

Time: 8:50PM ET

Venue: Georgia Dome

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 30-7; Syracuse 30-9

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.2 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Syracuse stat leaders: Points – C.J. Fair (14.3 ppg); Rebounds – Fair (7.0 rpg); Assists – Michael Carter-Williams (7.4 apg); Steals – Carter-Williams (2.8 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W4, Syracuse W4

Point Spread: Michigan -1.5

Prediction: Similar to the game with VCU, this game is being hyped up as the Michigan offense vs. the Syracuse defense. Instead of “havoc” the Orange will look to slow down Michigan with its 2-3 zone defense. Thus far in the tournament the zone defense has been very impressive for the Orange, holding Indiana to 50 points and Marquette to 39. However, Michigan seems to be clicking on offense and the Wolverines have the ability to beat the zone with its 3-point shooting. However, the key to that is for Michigan to actually hit the shots. The Wolverines can’t expect Nik Stauskas to go 6-for-6 from the 3-point line again, but Tim Hardaway Jr. could heat up and Trey Burke is always a threat to hit from deep. Michigan will also need to continue to get points in the paint from Mitch McGary, who has done a good job of finishing inside in the tournament. The true key to this game could be how Michigan defends Syracuse. The Orange have plenty of athletes and plenty of length. Michigan will have a hard time matching up on defense, so rebounding will again be a key on that end. If Syracuse is able to get multiple chances on the offensive end, it will be able to beat Michigan. We have seen Syracuse go in plenty of offensive funks in games throughout the season, and I think the Orange will fall into a funk at some point in this game. Michigan may not shoot the lights out, but I don’t think it will need to. The Wolverines seem to have it all working right now and I think John Beilein will have the right approach to attacking the zone and Michigan will move on to the national championship. Michigan 66, Syracuse 60

Future uncertain for Michigan State after "disappointing" 2012-13 season

This was an interesting season for the Michigan State basketball team.

There were times where it looked like the Spartans weren’t going to amount to much, then there were times where it looked like MSU might be a national contender.

By standards of most programs, Michigan State had a good season, maybe even a successful one. The Spartans finished second in the most difficult conference, the Big Ten, and reached its fifth Sweet 16 in six years.

But, those aren’t accomplishments worth applauding thanks to the standards of Tom Izzo.

The Spartans didn’t claim any championship this year and didn’t reach a Final Four. Those are the standards Izzo has created for the program through the years.

Michigan State was capable of beating Duke in the Sweet 16, but it didn’t get the job done.

Adding to the sting of the end of the season for Spartan fans is seeing Michigan reach the Final Four for the first time since 1993.

Like it or not, Michigan has made a lot of progress in the in-state rivalry the past few years and the Wolverines have a potential to win the national title, which would give John Beilein as many titles as Izzo.

That’s not to say Beilein is a better coach, but there has to be some concern within the MSU program about where things are heading.

The Spartans could be very good next year if the team stays intact. However, it is not certain that that will be the case.

Derrick Nix is the lone senior and his departure will be felt. He provided strength in the paint and had developed into a nice offensive option this season with his scoring and passing.

The Spartans may get more athletic in the paint next season, but I don’t know that they will have the interior passing presence like they had in Nix this season and Draymond Green prior to that.

ESPN’s NBA Draft guru, Chad Ford, has two Spartans listed as potential first round picks if they elect to leave early.

Freshman guard Gary Harris is currently listed as the 10^th best prospect in this year’s draft. Ford believes Harris is a lock to be a lottery pick if he elects to leave MSU.

Junior forward Adreian Payne is listed as the 40^th-best prospect for the draft by Ford. Payne’s athleticism and size, along with his ability to shoot from the outside, make him an interesting option for NBA teams. Though unpolished, Payne has plenty of upside.

Due to a recruiting class for 2013 that currently features just one player, three-star center Gavin Schilling, Michigan State can’t really afford to see Harris or Payne leave. Harris will likely develop into MSU’s top scoring option for next season and Payne is crucial to keep on the roster with Nix already gone.

If MSU can keep Payne and Harris around, we might be talking about another Final Four run for the Spartans at this time next year. If not, there may be more disappointment to come.

How would you grade MSU's 2012-13 season?

Michigan vs. Florida Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida

Time: 2:20PM ET

Venue: Cowboys Stadium

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 29-7; Florida 29-7

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.1 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Florida stat leaders: Points – Mike Rosario/Erik Murphy (12.6 ppg); Rebounds – Patric Young (6.3 rpg); Assists – Scottie Wilbekin (4.9 apg); Steals – Wilbekin (1.4 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W3, Florida W3

Point Spread: Florida -2.5

Prediction: I am a little surprised Florida is favored. I think Michigan has the momentum on its side with its improbable comeback against Kansas, and Florida hasn’t faced much of a difficult road to get to this game, beating a double-digit seed in every game in the tournament. Florida has been a tough team defensively, but its offense is lacking. The Gators also played in a down SEC conference while Michigan had to battle it out in the Big Ten. I think the Wolverines are more battle tested than the Gators and Michigan has the better athletes. The only way I see Michigan losing this game is if it plays into Florida’s hands with its approach on offense. I do expect the Gators to get some easy baskets along the way, but Michigan will be able to outscore the Gators as long as it takes care of the basketball and shoots reasonably well. I think Michigan gets to its first Final Four since 1993 (first recognized Final Four since 1976). Michigan 69, Florida 62

A second look at Michigan's improbable comeback over Kansas

Friday’s Sweet 16 game between Michigan and Kansas featured one of the more improbable finishes in tournament history and surely was one of the most memorable wins in the history of Michigan’s men’s basketball program.

Things got really crazy with three minutes to go in the game, Kansas leading 70-62. I went back and re-watched the game from this point. Here is what I saw, ultimately knowing the unlikely outcome.

2:52: Kansas’ Jeff Withey puts home a one-handed slam on a nice pass under the basket from Kevin Young. Kansas leads 72-62. That dunk seemed to be the final nail in Michigan’s coffin at the time.

2:25: After Tim Hardaway Jr. misses a pair of shots, including a 3-pointer, Kansas’ Elijah Johnson makes a poor decision on the other end and attacks the paint instead of slowing things down to let time run off the clock. Facing a trap from Hardaway and Trey Burke, he lobs a pass toward the top of the key to Withey, but Glenn Robinson III makes a great play to tip it away. He then tracks the ball down on the other end and slams it home in stride to make it 72-64 and give Michigan new life. It was one of a few key plays down the stretch from Robinson, and one of a few big mistakes from Johnson.

2:03: Johnson makes another poor decision, lazily bringing the ball up the floor after the Robinson dunk. Burke defends him hard and draws a 10-second violation. There was no reason for Johnson to allow this to happen. Two huge turnovers in less than 30 seconds for Johnson and Kansas.

1:52: Burke patiently works his way into the lane, drawing Withey to step up and get vertical. Burke passes under Withey to Mitch McGary, who finishes the easy lay-in. 72-66 Kansas. Four crucial points off the two Johnson turnovers, and those two baskets really seemed to give Michigan the momentum.

1:22: McGary called for a foul when he attempts to block a dunk attempt by Kansas’ Travis Releford. The replay shows a clean block, but it looked bad in live action. Releford hits both free throws. 74-66 Kansas.

1:14: Wasting little time, Burke hits an NBA 3-pointer over Withey to make it 74-69. Michigan with a time out after the score.

0:28.8: Michigan elects not to foul. Kansas gets a good look at the basket with Ben McLemore getting inside the paint, but he misses the off-balanced shot. Jordan Morgan rebounds it and gets it to Burke, who make a great down-court pass to Hardaway, who is wide open on the wing for 3. Hardaway misses again, but in a scramble for the rebound, Robinson gets it and hits a tough reverse lay-in to make it 74-71. Beilein uses his final time out. Robinson again comes up with a big hustle play.

0:21.0: Caris LeVert fouls Johnson. He hits both free throws in a 1&1 situation. 76-71 Kansas.

0:14.0: With Withey not on the floor, Burke quickly attacks the lane and gets a lay-in, 76-73. Michigan then quickly fouls Johnson again.

0:12.6: Johnson misses the first of a 1&1. Hardaway boards and gets it to Burke, which leads to…..

0:04.2: Burke hits drains an amazing 3-pointer, nearly halfway between half court and the 3-point line. We all knew Burke had range, but this shot is incredible. Game tied 76-76. Kansas takes a time out. Young nearly gets a piece of the shot on replay. Kansas really couldn’t have done anything short of fouling Burke before the shot, but I don’t think anyone expected him to launch it from there with 5 seconds left on the clock. That shot will go down in Michigan history. If the Wolverines go on to win a national title, that shot will be the equivalent of the Tayshaun Prince block of Reggie Miller in the Pistons’ 2004 run to the championship.

0:00: Naadir Tharpe misses a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Tharpe had a great look as LeVert oddly playing very far off him. It could have cost Michigan the game. You’d like to see a player challenge defensively and at least make Tharpe take an off-balanced shot. I understand the concern about fouling, but he gave Tharpe far too much room.

Overtime

4:30: Young gets an easy lay-in under the basket. Robinson tried to double up Withey, who was already being well defended by McGary. Robinson got too aggressive and left his man open for the easy 2. 78-76 Kansas.

4:01: Burke hits another NBA 3-pointer at the top of the key. Withey doesn’t step out at all to challenge and Burke is on another planet right now. 79-78 Michigan. First lead for the Wolverines since it was 9-8.

3:47: Releford hits two free throws after a blocking foul. Kansas regains the lead, 80-79.

3:20: Burke does it again, dribbling down McLemore before hitting a long 2 in his face. Nothing but net. Michigan leads, 81-80. Kansas just can’t do anything to stop him at this point.

2:34: After Nik Stauskas misses a wide-open 3-pointer on the baseline, Kansas runs the floor and Young gets a lay-in in transition. Kansas 82-81. It was the final lead for the Jayhawks.

2:15: McGary hits a tough turnaround jumper on the baseline with Withey in his face. One of the better shots I have seen McGary hit. Michigan leads 83-82.

1:04: Burke attempts a one-handed runner that goes long. Withey has the rebounding position, but Robinson again comes up big, tipping the ball out of Withey’s hands. McGary collects it for a quick lay-in. Michigan leads 85-82. Kansas calls a time out.

0:52.1: Robinson comes up big once again. Johnson tries to pass behind himself again and Robinson gets his long arm on the ball and gets fouled before he can breakaway for an easy 2. In a big moment, Robinson hits both free throws to close out the scoring for Michigan. Wolverines lead 87-82.

0:45.0: Johnson hits a 3-pointer from the top of the key. Michigan leads 87-85. Good shot coming off a screen.

0:09.4: Burke unable to put the game away, as Withey gets a piece of his runner. The shot clock expires during a scramble. After a lengthy video review, Kansas gets the ball with 9.4 left.

0:00.0: Johnson goes coast-to-coast and drives to the baseline. It looks like he could have taken a runner from an odd angle to tie the game, but had Morgan following behind him for a possible block. Johnson instead wildly kicks the ball out to Tharpe, who has to throw up a contested one-legged 3-point shot that hits hard off the glass and misses. Michigan wins, 87-85.

There were so many big moments in this final 8 minutes of play. Obviously McGary had a great game and Burke had a legendary second half and overtime, but Robinson III deserves a lot of credit in the comeback. He had a rough game defensively and was out-muscled a number of times by Kansas players, but he came through in a big way. Without his hustle plays, Burke never gets a chance to become a legend.

Michigan vs. Kansas Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 1 Kansas

Time: 7:37PM ET

Venue: Cowboys Stadium

TV: TBS

Records: Michigan 28-7; Kansas 31-5

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.9 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.7 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Kansas stat leaders: Points – Ben McLemore (15.8 ppg); Rebounds – Jeff Withey (8.5 rpg); Assists – Elijah Johnson (4.7 apg); Steals – Travis Releford (1.3 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W2, Kansas W5

Point Spread: Kansas -2

Prediction: This is obviously one of the biggest games, if not the biggest, Michigan has had in quite some time. A spot in the Elite 8 is on the line and the winner of this game could easily be favored to reach the Final Four out of the South Region. Michigan looked fantastic last week at The Palace, but are the Wolverines going to be able to take that show on the road? There is no secret that Michigan struggled away from Ann Arbor toward the end of the season. Kansas will likely have the crowd support for this game and playing in a big stadium like this can sometimes impact a team’s shooting as they get accustomed to the size of the building. Michigan will need to shoot well from the outside. Kansas center Jeff Withey does a great job of defending in the post and altering shots from guards as they try to attack the lane. If Michigan isn’t able to shoot consistently well from the perimeter, I don’t think it can win. Michigan will also need to defend well. Kansas hasn’t shot that well in the first two tournament games, but the Jayhawks can get hot quickly. Ultimately I think Michigan can win, but I need the Wolverines to prove to me they can win away from home in a big game. I just get the sense that some of the young players will go AWOL again and keep Michigan from getting this victory. Kansas 72, Michigan 65

Can MSU and/or Michigan make the Final Four?

We are into the second week of the NCAA tournament and both Michigan and Michigan State are still alive.

Both the Spartans and Wolverines had an impressive weekend at The Palace of Auburn Hills, as each team won both their contests by double digits. While there were a handful of teams that looked impressive this weekend, MSU and U-M are right up there with anyone in the tournament in terms of most impressive weekend.

Now things get a little tougher.

This weekend is what separates the great programs from the good. Michigan and MSU fans should feel good about their programs reaching the Sweet 16 this season. It isn’t an easy task. Expectations for both programs at different times this season were greater than a Sweet 16, but when you look at some of the teams that failed to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, it is an impressive accomplishment.

But, programs are defined on Final Fours. Sure, everyone wants to win the national championship, but reaching a Final Four is often times how programs are defined.

So what is it going to take for MSU and Michigan to win twice this upcoming week?

Michigan State has the toughest road of the two teams. The Spartans start with Duke, arguably the top college basketball program in the country when you look at accomplishments over the last 20 years.

Beating Duke will be hard enough, but if MSU wins, it is possibly looking at a matchup with Louisville, the top overall seed and team that took the Spartans out of last year’s tournament.

MSU will need to be at its best this weekend. Anything less will result in a loss. The Spartans have the horses to win the Midwest region, but we haven’t quite see the team all click at the same time. Keith Appling hasn’t been his best lately, but Gary Harris had a strong weekend. Derrick Nix looked as good as he has all season, but Adreian Payne has been either great or awful. Branden Dawson still looks lost with the basketball on offense, but has played great defense.

When Payne and Nix are clicking in the paint and dominating the glass, the Spartans seem unbeatable. It seems that when Harris is off, Appling is on. If both can find their stroke at the same time, MSU will be just fine. Dawson may never get his shot and finishing around the basket down, but his defense won’t take a step back. His ability to defend all over the floor will be very important against Duke.

Michigan State will also have to make a commitment to defending the perimeter. Duke can light opponents up from 3-point land, so MSU will have to make sure to not get caught trying to trap in the paint.

When it comes to Michigan, the Wolverines have appeared to gotten their swagger back. That was something that was certainly missing from Michigan toward the end of the Big Ten season. The Wolverines didn’t look confident and didn’t play confident. That changed at The Palace.

Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mitch McGary looked as good as they have all season, but a plus for Michigan is that Trey Burke looked about as bad as he has all season. I would expect Burke to have a much better weekend in Dallas, which will come in handy if Hardaway, McGary or Glenn Robinson III aren’t hitting their shots.

Michigan faces an interesting opponent in Kansas. The Jayhawks haven’t looked too good in their two games and have struggled on offense. They had 39 turnovers combined against Western Kentucky and North Carolina. Kansas also shot 5 for 20 from 3-point land in the two games. Despite the offensive struggles, Kansas will pose a defensive challenge to Michigan. Center Jeff Withey has been a force in the paint, averaging 3.9 blocks per game. His long wingspan allows him to get the high number of blocks and alter a lot of shots in the paint. Michigan will have issues trying to attack the paint if Withey is standing there.

Michigan proved on Saturday that it can certainly beat anyone in the country when it gets out in transition and plays downhill. I would expect coaches like Bill Self and Florida’s Billy Donovan look to slow down the Wolverines and force them into becoming a half-court offense. Teams will look to “ugly it up” against Michigan and it will be up to the Wolverines to hit shots, especially from the perimeter.

Can both Michigan and MSU reach the Final Four? Absolutely. Will they? I don’t think so. But, that is just my opinion. What are your thoughts?

Who makes it to the Final Four

VCU vs. Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

No. 5 VCU vs. No. 4 Michigan

Preview story

Time: 12:15PM ET

Venue: The Palace of Auburn Hills

TV: CBS

Records: VCU 27-8; Michigan 27-7

VCU stat leaders: Points – Treveon Graham (15.2 ppg); Rebounds – Juvonte Reddic (8.2 rpg); Assists – Darius Theus (4.9 apg); Steals – Briante Weber (2.7 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.6 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.7 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Current Streaks: VCU W1, Michigan W1

Point Spread: Michigan -3.5

Prediction: I have gone back and forth on this game. I really think it should be a fantastic contest. I think VCU will pose its problems for Michigan with the aggressive press, but I also think the Wolverines will find their fair share of transition baskets thanks to their solid ball handling. Michigan will turn it over more than usual, but it will also get some good looks at the basket in the paint and from 3-point land. With the game being at The Palace, and Michigan getting the support from the crowd, I see it shooting well. The real key will be how well Michigan plays on defense and if it can keep VCU from getting high-percentage looks. In the end, I think Michigan will do just enough to win. Michigan 76, VCU 71

South Dakota State vs. Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

No. 13 South Dakota State vs. No. 4 Michigan

Time: 7:15PM ET

Venue: The Palace of Auburn Hills

TV: CBS

Records: South Dakota State 25-9; Michigan 26-7

South Dakota State stat leaders: Points – Nate Wolters (22.7 ppg); Rebounds – Jordan Dykstra (7.9 rpg); Assists – Wolters (5.8 apg); Steals – Wolters (1.8 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (19.2 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.5 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.7 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Current Streaks: South Dakota State W4, Michigan L1

Point Spread: Michigan -11.5

Prediction: I think this is going to be a reasonably difficult opening game for Michigan. South Dakota State is no joke. The Jackrabbits have tremendous scoring ability and one of the top players in the entire tournament in Nate Wolters. South Dakota State is also in its second straight tournament appearance, so it won’t be overwhelmed by the environment and opponent. Despite all that, I think Michigan will win, because I think the Wolverines will be able to outscore the Jackrabbits. South Dakota State needs Wolters to give them a certain about of points, and if he can’t do that, the Jackrabbits will not be able to win. Michigan is able to survive if Trey Burke isn’t quite his usual self, as long as guys like Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary or Glenn Robinson III step up. With Michigan being close to home and having a solid crowd behind it, I think the Wolverines will play composed and comfortable, and do enough to get the win tonight. Michigan 75, South Dakota State 68

Does Michigan or MSU have the tougher road to the Final Four?

Now that we have all had a day to chew on the NCAA Tournament field, it is time to start really breaking it down.

MSU

I think there isn’t much debate that Michigan State has a tough draw. The Midwest region looks to be the toughest of the four regions. What the Spartans have in their favor is that they play their first two games at the Palace, and then would have to go to Indianapolis for the regional final four.

Valparaiso poses an interesting opening challenge for the Spartans. Valpo is ranked 59^th in the RPI but was 0-2 against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, falling to Saint Louis and New Mexico, both by 13 points. Valpo averages an impressive 71.7 points per game, but struggles in the rebounding department, ranking 248^th in the nation at 32.9 per game.

Should MSU get past Valpo, it will likely encounter Memphis in the round of 32. The Tigers have an impressive resume, winning 30 games and sitting 14^th in the RPI. Memphis went 9-4 against the RPI top 100, but 0-2 against the top 25 in the RPI. The Tigers have an up-tempo offense that could give the Spartans problems, and they also battle in the paint, ranking 39^th in the nation in rebounding.

I think MSU can win both games in Detroit, partly due to the home-crowd support. The real test comes in the second weekend with the potential of having to beat Duke and Louisville to get to the Final Four. Michigan State certainly can beat both teams, but the Spartans will have to come out and play with the intensity it had when it hosted Michigan. I don’t count out Tom Izzo in the NCAA Tournament, but a Final Four appearance doesn’t seem in the cards to me.

Michigan

Michigan faces an intriguing opponent in its first game, as the Wolverines play Summit League champion, South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits sit 63^rd in the RPI rankings and were 4-4 against RPI top 100 teams, including a 70-65 win over New Mexico. SDSU averages 73.9 points per game and is led by one of the top players in the country, Nate Wolters, who averages 22.7 points per game. I think Michigan is okay in this game because the Wolverines have the ability to score with most teams. The Jackrabbits don’t rely on overwhelming defense and physical play to win games, which is what gives Michigan the most trouble.

The real intriguing game comes in the Round of 32 as Michigan will be matched up with VCU or Akron. VCU is the expected opponent as the No. 5 seed. The Rams are 24^th in the RPI and come out of the very-competitive Atlantic 10 conference. VCU has experience of getting to the Final Four under head coach Shaka Smart. The Rams were 12-8 against top 100 RPI teams and 3-3 against Top 25 RPI teams. VCU plays a very aggressive style of basketball, averaging 78 points per game and 11.8 steals per game. The Rams force just under 20 turnovers a game for their opponents. I do think this is a matchup that could be a problem for many teams, but it should be something Michigan can handle. Trey Burke handles the ball well most games and, if Michigan can break the press of VCU, it will get a lot of high-percentage shots.

Like MSU, Michigan has the luxury of playing its first two games at the Palace, which should help settle the nerves of postseason play. I do think Michigan makes it to the second weekend of the tournament, but I see the Wolverines have trouble beating Kansas in the regional semifinal, especially against a pro-Kansas crowd in Dallas. Michigan has the talent to compete with anyone, but we haven’t seen that total team performance on the road in a big game. If Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are able to step up, it could be a very successful tournament run for Michigan.

Who has the tougher road to the Final Four

My Immediate NCAA Tournament Overreactions

Alright, it is finally time to see the NCAA Tournament field. I am sure CBS will drag this out over the next hour. Just hit refresh to get my thoughts as the field is announced.

- Louisville named the No. 1 overall seed. I'd say it's surprising, but winning the Big East regular season and tournament title pushed it ahead of Indiana. The Cardinals will be the top seed in the Midwest Region.

Midwest Region Thoughts
- Tough draw for Oklahoma State to face Oregon in the opener as the 5-12 matchup.
- I really like Saint Louis. They will be a tough out as the No. 4 seed.
- Louisville has a tough draw with Duke as the No. 2 seed in its region. Arguably the best No. 2 paired with the top overall seed.
- MSU the No. 3 seed and playing at the Palace. The Spartans face Valpo in the opening round. No. 6 Memphis facing No. 11 Middle Tennessee & St. Mary's.
- The Spartans will have a tough game against Memphis in the second round if it holds up. That is a 30-win team out of the Conference USA. Memphis is No. 18 in the BPI rankings. The Tigers have lost to Louisville, Minnesota, VCU and Xavier.
- MSU will get its first two games at the Palace, which will help its chances, but the regional Final Four could feature Duke, Louisville and Saint Louis. That will be a tough weekend.

South Region Thoughts
- Kansas gets the top seed in the South region. Not too surprising.
- Possible Kansas-UNC matchup in the second round is intriguing.
- VCU (5) facing Akron (12) at the Palace. That will be a great contest.
- Michigan (4) faces South Dakota State (13) in the opener. SDS is the Summit League champion, which features Oakland.
- The Wolverines really dropped in seeding over the past few weeks, but was able to keep that spot at the Palace, which is big for a team that has struggled away from home.
- Michigan's game will be about Trey Burke vs. Nate Wolters. Two tremendous guards that can score a lot of points.
- VCU may not be a bad matchup for Michigan either. VCU really likes to apply defensive pressure, but Michigan has been known to take care of the ball. VCU also isn't a very big team, but it is deep.
- Overall, I feel the South is not nearly as tough as the Midwest. Kansas and Georgetown are strong, but beatable. Florida is a tough No. 3, but I feel the SEC is a weak conference this year.

East Region Thoughts
- Indiana is the top seed out East. Regional semifinals and finals are at Washington D.C.
- I feel like Indiana and Syracuse (4) have a relatively easy road to the Sweet Sixteen in this bracket.
- I have really wanted to see Indiana vs. Miami this season. The Hurricanes are the No. 2 seed in the East.
- Illinois gets the No. 7 seed in the East. The Illini meet up with No. 10 Colorado. Should be a good opening-round meeting.
- I think the East may be the easiest bracket yet. Indiana and Miami are both solid, but I don't think Syracuse and Marquette (3) have been reliable teams this season. I would argue Syracuse is tougher than Marquette, which makes things easier for Miami to get to the Elite Eight.

West Region Thoughts
- Gonzaga is the No. 1 seed, but might have a tough early meeting with Pitt (8) or Wichita State (9). Both teams are capable of giving Gonzaga all it can handle.
- Wisconsin gets the No. 5 seed. Tough draw for it as it plays Ole Miss (12). Would have thought Wisconsin played up to a No. 4 this weekend.
- Kansas State is the No. 4 seed in this region. Not too scared of the Wildcats.
- Ohio State gets the No. 2 seed in the West. It plays Iona (15).
- Notre Dame (7) has a tough game with Iowa State (10) in the opener. Iowa State has been a tough out this season.
- New Mexico is a team many don't know a ton about, but the Lobos are very strong. Ohio State-New Mexico could be the real game for the Final Four in this region.
- I have no doubt that Wisconsin could beat Gonzaga if it gets a shots at them.
- The West seems to be the weakest overall region. I question Gonzaga being the No. 1 seed. I think Ohio State and New Mexico are solid, but Kansas State is questionable to me.

My Way Too Quick Final Four Picks: Louisville, Kansas, Miami, New Mexico