Who should have the better 2013-14 season, Michigan or Michigan State?

It appears as if most of the dust has settled when it comes to which Michigan and Michigan State players are entering the NBA Draft.

Though Adreian Payne has yet to make his decision official, most signs point to Payne returning to the Spartans for his senior season.

If that is indeed the case, we can now start to take a look at how the Spartans and Wolverines are shaping up for the 2013-14 season.

The Spartans are largely the same team coming back from this past season, with the exception of the loss of Derrick Nix. Despite the loss of Nix, you can probably expect some development from the likes of Matt Costello and Branden Dawson.

Costello showed some signs of being a capable player once he shook the freshman nerves. Dawson has always been a great athlete, but he struggled this year with his touch on offense. Part of that could have been from coming off the knee injury. With a healthy offseason to improve his shot and work on his touch around the basket, I think Dawson should become a much better player.

The Spartans should also get some improvement out of the likes of Gary Harris, Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine. It is unclear if Keith Appling has hit his peak, but he certainly has shown the ability to be one of the best players in the Big Ten at times.

When it comes to Michigan, the Wolverines have a strong foundation returning with the trio of freshmen starters coming back. Nik Stuaskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary will each need to step up in terms of offensive production with the loss of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.

I was surprised that Hardaway Jr. decided to go pro, just because I think he would have benefited from a year of being “the guy” for Michigan.

Along with the starters, Michigan will have Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan back to help contribute. I think Morgan struggled all year due to his injuries, so a healthy Morgan could have a much greater impact.

The Wolverines will have to rely more on their incoming freshmen class than MSU. Part of that is because the Spartans don’t have much of a class and the other part is that the Wolverines will need help at point guard from Derrick Walton. Zak Irvin could also make an immediate impact at small forward.

Of the two teams, I think the bigger question marks come from Michigan. Will the loss of Burke be too great to overcome? Not only did he handle the ball and do the most scoring, he also did a good job of getting open looks for his teammates. McGary’s strong tournament run was aided by Burke, so it will be interesting to see if McGary can still be an offensive force if he has to create his own shots.

Both teams seem to be set for a good 2013-14 season, but it is unclear just how successful they will be.

Who do you think is primed to have the better 2013-14 season if the teams are built the way they currently are?

Which team is built to have a better 2013-14 basketball season?

How hard will Michigan be hit by the 2013 NBA Draft?

It was a great run for Michigan.

I for one didn’t see the Wolverines coming within six points of a national championship at the end of the regular season, but Michigan really played its best basketball at the right time.

There are plenty of ways you can analyze Monday’s game. You can be critical of the coaches or players or the refs, but I am just going to let that all go.

Michigan had a great season and accomplished something big for its program by reaching the national championship game. I didn’t think John Beilein was a coach capable of taking Michigan to that next level, but he proved me wrong and he deserves credit for that. I think he has secured his spot as head coach of the Wolverines for a long time to come.

This season had the makings of being a disappointing one after Michigan failed to win a Big Ten title of any kind, but the Final Four and national championship game appearances made up for all that.

This last month can do a lot for the Michigan program going forward. It should do a lot for recruiting, which is already going well for the Wolverines (three ESPN Top 100 recruits joining the team next season).

Next season will certainly be interesting for Michigan, but the big question heading into the offseason is who will be back for the Wolverines?

Four of Michigan’s starting five all have the potential to leave for the NBA.

It is more than expected that Trey Burke is leaving. The sophomore point guard nearly left after his freshman year, but decided to stay. Now he is the National Player of the Year and doesn’t have any reason to come back outside of wanting to win a national title. I’d be shocked if Burke returned. He is a guaranteed lottery pick.

Junior Tim Hardaway Jr. also seems set to leave. I personally think he could benefit from coming back and being the focal point of the Michigan offense. Hardaway disappeared at times throughout the season and another year to develop his shot would be beneficial in my opinion. His family pedigree helps his draft status, but I am not sure he’s ready.

Glenn Robinson III also has the family background to go pro, but I really think he needs a second year of college. The freshman has good length, at 6-6, but I think he could use another year in a strength and conditioning program to bulk up a little bit. He was frequently out-muscled when playing defense this year and became somewhat of a defensive liability for Michigan. With his athleticism, Robinson III can be a great pro player if he develops his shot. He was just a 32 percent shooting from 3-point land and 67 percent shooter at the free-throw line.

Mitch McGary wasn’t really on the NBA radar entering the tournament, but he certainly is now. I don’t expect him to leave, but his stocker has never been better. He already has pretty good size at 6-10, 250 pounds, and his outside shooting has noticeably improved. McGary also runs the floor well and has great court awareness. I still think it would be wise for him to return to Michigan and work on his post moves and try to develop his scoring inside with both hands. I think McGary could really dominate if he continues to develop. He would be a featured player for Michigan and I think he could be a Player of the Year Candidate with another year of progress.

So, of the four, how many do you think will return. Right now, I think Burke and Hardaway Jr. are leaving. I am on the fence about Robinson III. He may not feel comfortable coming back with the others leaving, or he could embrace the challenge of having to be a featured player. I think McGary will be back for sure, which will help Michigan a great deal.

How many players will leave Michigan for the NBA?

Michigan vs. Louisville National Championship Game Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 1 Louisville

Time: 9:20PM ET

Venue: Georgia Dome

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 31-7; Louisville 34-5

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.5 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.3 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Louisville stat leaders: Points – Russ Smith (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Gorgui Dieng (9.4 rpg); Assists – Peyton Siva (5.7 apg); Steals – Siva (2.2 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W5, Louisville W15

Point Spread: Louisville -4

Prediction: Well, it all comes down to this. On paper, this should be an outstanding game. Both teams like to push the pace on offense and get in transition. Louisville has an aggressive defense, but could be exposed by a team like Michigan that handles the ball well. Michigan’s defense will have its hands full, but the Wolverines should be able to pose some problems for Louisville’s top scorer, Russ Smith. Smith stands just 6-1, which means 6-6 Tim Hardaway Jr. should be able to contest his shots. Smith has scored at least 21 points in all five tournament games. If Michigan can slow him down, it severely hurts Louisville’s chances to win. The Louisville defense has the luxury of having 6-11 center Gorgui Dieng patrolling the paint. Similar to Kansas’ Jeff Withey, Dieng has racked up a lot of blocks this season and he alters a lot of shots with his length. Michigan will have a hard time scoring with dribble penetration when Dieng is on the floor, but that could also setup Mitch McGary to get some easy points if Trey Burke can draw Dieng away from him. Michigan is fully capable of winning this game, but the Wolverines will need a solid 40 minutes to do so. Michigan can’t struggle down the stretch like it did against Syracuse. Louisville will do a better job of capitalizing on Michigan’s mistakes. The Cardinals have also faced plenty of deficits toward the end of the season and still rallied to win. No matter what Michigan does on Monday, Louisville won’t give up. The Cardinals have the better coach in Rick Pitino (in my opinion) and I think that will play a big role in this game. Though Michigan is playing a high level, I picked Louisville to win it all when the field was announced, so I am not backing away from that pick now. Louisville 72, Michigan 69

A second look at Michigan's improbable comeback over Kansas

Friday’s Sweet 16 game between Michigan and Kansas featured one of the more improbable finishes in tournament history and surely was one of the most memorable wins in the history of Michigan’s men’s basketball program.

Things got really crazy with three minutes to go in the game, Kansas leading 70-62. I went back and re-watched the game from this point. Here is what I saw, ultimately knowing the unlikely outcome.

2:52: Kansas’ Jeff Withey puts home a one-handed slam on a nice pass under the basket from Kevin Young. Kansas leads 72-62. That dunk seemed to be the final nail in Michigan’s coffin at the time.

2:25: After Tim Hardaway Jr. misses a pair of shots, including a 3-pointer, Kansas’ Elijah Johnson makes a poor decision on the other end and attacks the paint instead of slowing things down to let time run off the clock. Facing a trap from Hardaway and Trey Burke, he lobs a pass toward the top of the key to Withey, but Glenn Robinson III makes a great play to tip it away. He then tracks the ball down on the other end and slams it home in stride to make it 72-64 and give Michigan new life. It was one of a few key plays down the stretch from Robinson, and one of a few big mistakes from Johnson.

2:03: Johnson makes another poor decision, lazily bringing the ball up the floor after the Robinson dunk. Burke defends him hard and draws a 10-second violation. There was no reason for Johnson to allow this to happen. Two huge turnovers in less than 30 seconds for Johnson and Kansas.

1:52: Burke patiently works his way into the lane, drawing Withey to step up and get vertical. Burke passes under Withey to Mitch McGary, who finishes the easy lay-in. 72-66 Kansas. Four crucial points off the two Johnson turnovers, and those two baskets really seemed to give Michigan the momentum.

1:22: McGary called for a foul when he attempts to block a dunk attempt by Kansas’ Travis Releford. The replay shows a clean block, but it looked bad in live action. Releford hits both free throws. 74-66 Kansas.

1:14: Wasting little time, Burke hits an NBA 3-pointer over Withey to make it 74-69. Michigan with a time out after the score.

0:28.8: Michigan elects not to foul. Kansas gets a good look at the basket with Ben McLemore getting inside the paint, but he misses the off-balanced shot. Jordan Morgan rebounds it and gets it to Burke, who make a great down-court pass to Hardaway, who is wide open on the wing for 3. Hardaway misses again, but in a scramble for the rebound, Robinson gets it and hits a tough reverse lay-in to make it 74-71. Beilein uses his final time out. Robinson again comes up with a big hustle play.

0:21.0: Caris LeVert fouls Johnson. He hits both free throws in a 1&1 situation. 76-71 Kansas.

0:14.0: With Withey not on the floor, Burke quickly attacks the lane and gets a lay-in, 76-73. Michigan then quickly fouls Johnson again.

0:12.6: Johnson misses the first of a 1&1. Hardaway boards and gets it to Burke, which leads to…..

0:04.2: Burke hits drains an amazing 3-pointer, nearly halfway between half court and the 3-point line. We all knew Burke had range, but this shot is incredible. Game tied 76-76. Kansas takes a time out. Young nearly gets a piece of the shot on replay. Kansas really couldn’t have done anything short of fouling Burke before the shot, but I don’t think anyone expected him to launch it from there with 5 seconds left on the clock. That shot will go down in Michigan history. If the Wolverines go on to win a national title, that shot will be the equivalent of the Tayshaun Prince block of Reggie Miller in the Pistons’ 2004 run to the championship.

0:00: Naadir Tharpe misses a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Tharpe had a great look as LeVert oddly playing very far off him. It could have cost Michigan the game. You’d like to see a player challenge defensively and at least make Tharpe take an off-balanced shot. I understand the concern about fouling, but he gave Tharpe far too much room.

Overtime

4:30: Young gets an easy lay-in under the basket. Robinson tried to double up Withey, who was already being well defended by McGary. Robinson got too aggressive and left his man open for the easy 2. 78-76 Kansas.

4:01: Burke hits another NBA 3-pointer at the top of the key. Withey doesn’t step out at all to challenge and Burke is on another planet right now. 79-78 Michigan. First lead for the Wolverines since it was 9-8.

3:47: Releford hits two free throws after a blocking foul. Kansas regains the lead, 80-79.

3:20: Burke does it again, dribbling down McLemore before hitting a long 2 in his face. Nothing but net. Michigan leads, 81-80. Kansas just can’t do anything to stop him at this point.

2:34: After Nik Stauskas misses a wide-open 3-pointer on the baseline, Kansas runs the floor and Young gets a lay-in in transition. Kansas 82-81. It was the final lead for the Jayhawks.

2:15: McGary hits a tough turnaround jumper on the baseline with Withey in his face. One of the better shots I have seen McGary hit. Michigan leads 83-82.

1:04: Burke attempts a one-handed runner that goes long. Withey has the rebounding position, but Robinson again comes up big, tipping the ball out of Withey’s hands. McGary collects it for a quick lay-in. Michigan leads 85-82. Kansas calls a time out.

0:52.1: Robinson comes up big once again. Johnson tries to pass behind himself again and Robinson gets his long arm on the ball and gets fouled before he can breakaway for an easy 2. In a big moment, Robinson hits both free throws to close out the scoring for Michigan. Wolverines lead 87-82.

0:45.0: Johnson hits a 3-pointer from the top of the key. Michigan leads 87-85. Good shot coming off a screen.

0:09.4: Burke unable to put the game away, as Withey gets a piece of his runner. The shot clock expires during a scramble. After a lengthy video review, Kansas gets the ball with 9.4 left.

0:00.0: Johnson goes coast-to-coast and drives to the baseline. It looks like he could have taken a runner from an odd angle to tie the game, but had Morgan following behind him for a possible block. Johnson instead wildly kicks the ball out to Tharpe, who has to throw up a contested one-legged 3-point shot that hits hard off the glass and misses. Michigan wins, 87-85.

There were so many big moments in this final 8 minutes of play. Obviously McGary had a great game and Burke had a legendary second half and overtime, but Robinson III deserves a lot of credit in the comeback. He had a rough game defensively and was out-muscled a number of times by Kansas players, but he came through in a big way. Without his hustle plays, Burke never gets a chance to become a legend.

Saturday's NCAA tournament coverage

Click on the links for each story.

Pat Caputo column on Michigan breaking out of its tournament funk with Saturday's win

Pat Caputo column on MSU passing the opening weekend of the tournament with flying colors

Story on Michigan's Mitch McGary and his fullback-like mindset on the floor

Story on MSU's Adreian Payne and his impact in the second half of Saturday's win over Memphis

MSU notebook, headlined by Keith Appling's interesting day

Michigan notebook, led with the Wolverines now leaving the comforts of home

Story on Oakland University's reaction to hosting this weekend's games

Michigan at Michigan State Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State

Time: 9 p.m.

Venue: Breslin Center

TV: ESPN

Records: Michigan 21-3, 8-3 Big Ten; Michigan State 20-4, 9-2

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.2 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.1 rpg); Assists – Burke (7.1 apg); Steals – Burke (1.4 spg).

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (14.1 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (6.8 rpg); Assists – Appling (4.1 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.8 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan L1, Michigan State W3

Point Spread: Michigan -1

Prediction: This game is all someone like me can hope for. I don’t have an affiliation to either team, but know that when both teams are playing at a high level, it makes the rivalry that much better. This game is one of the biggest regular-season meetings between these two programs. The Big Ten title implications for this game are massive and you can feel the anticipation in the air. I would be disappointed if this was anything other than a great game. I expect it to be close throughout and come down to the final few possessions. I am sure the atmosphere at the Breslin Center will be tremendous. When it comes to the game, I think Michigan State can find plenty of points in the paint if they choose to be aggressive on offense. Mitch McGary has improved, but he is going to be tested trying to keep Derrick Nix out of the lane. Adreian Payne can be a tough matchup for the Wolverines as well because of his outside shooting and athleticism. For Michigan, the Wolverines need all hands on deck. In the road losses, there have been key players that have went missing. For the most part, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III have been the biggest culprits for disappearing in the big games. If Michigan can get the whole starting five involved, it can win tonight. However, it has been a trend for the Wolverines to have key players disappear, and I think that will happen again tonight. I have to pick against Michigan until it proves to me that it can win one of these big road games. I think Michigan has more talent, but they just haven’t been able to grind out a big win on the road. Michigan State is unbeaten at home for a reason and they have the better coach on the sidelines. Michigan State 69, Michigan 66

Michigan at Minnesota Breakdown & Prediction

No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 9 Minnesota

Time: 7 p.m.

Venue: Williams Arena

TV: ESPN

Records: Michigan 16-1, 3-1 Big Ten; Minnesota 15-2, 3-1

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.0 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.9 rpg); Assists – Burke (7.1 apg); Steals – Burke (1.2 spg).

Minnesota stat leaders: Points – Andre Hollins (14.4 ppg); Rebounds – Trevor Mbakwe (8.1 rpg); Assists – Andre Hollins (3.6 apg); Steals – Austin Hollins (2.0 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan L1; Minnesota L1

Point Spread: Minnesota -3.5

Prediction: You would expect that Michigan learned a few lessons in last Sunday’s loss to Ohio State. The Wolverines have to show better composure in the beginning of this game and learn from what went well against the Buckeyes. Michigan was able to overcome a large deficit to Ohio State with defense and aggressive offense. If Michigan hopes to win tonight, the Wolverines need to do more of the same against the Gophers. The issue is, Minnesota is coming off a tough loss at Indiana and has been very impressive at home. Both teams need this win, but Minnesota has the home-court advantage. I think the Wolverines will play better than they did last Sunday, but they are also facing a better team. Minnesota 72, Michigan 70

Early thoughts on Michigan's basketball season

Michigan has gotten off to an 8-0 start this basketball season and the Wolverines have looked pretty good in the process.

The Wolverines haven’t faced the toughest competition, but they also haven’t played a cake schedule. In recent years, wins over Pittsburgh and Kansas State would carry more weight than they do this year. N.C. State was ranked 18^th at the time, so that still is a good win, relatively speaking.

Everyone knew what Michigan had in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Those two have lived up to expectations thus far, with Burke average 17 points and 7.1 assists per game and Hardaway chipping in with 15.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game.

Many also knew of Michigan’s talented freshmen that were coming in, led by Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary.

What has been somewhat surprising is the play of another freshman, Nik Stasukas.

Stauskas is currently third on the team in scoring at 13.9 points per game and he is shooting an amazing 63.6% from 3-point land (21 of 33).

With McGary being a little slow out of the gates, Stauskas has picked up the slack and made Michigan into more of a dangerous team that first projected.

We have to assume that Stauskas will cool off at some point, but we can also expect McGary to improve. The key, either way, is that Michigan has a lot of scoring options this year.

With Robinson III’s 13.9 points per game, Michigan has four players averaging double figures in scoring. Outside of those four players, the Wolverines still have contributors like Jordan Morgan and McGary.

Right now the Wolverines are third in the nation in shooting at 52.1 percent. It would be hard to see them continuing to shoot that well. But, unlike past seasons, it appears Michigan won’t have to rely on shooting well from the outside to win games, which is why it is fair to call Michigan one of the best teams in the country right now.