Michigan State at Northwestern Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan State at Northwestern

Time: 7PM ET

Venue: Welsh-Ryan Arena

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Michigan State 15-1, 4-0 Big Ten; Northwestern 8-9, 1-3

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Garry Harris (17.8 ppg); Rebounds – Branden Dawson (8.7 rpg); Assists – Keith Appling (4.6 apg); Steals – Harris (1.8 spg).

Northwestern stat leaders: Points – Drew Crawford (15.6 ppg); Rebounds – Crawford (7.0 rpg); Assists – Dave Sobolewski (3.2 apg); Steals – JerShon Cobb/Sanjay Lumpkin (0.9 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan State W8, Northwestern W1

Point Spread: Not available (due to injuries)

Prediction: This game could be a tough test given Adreian Payne is doubtful with his foot injury and Branden Dawson’s status is unknown due to a virus. Northwestern is coming off a win over Illinois, so its confidence should be high at home. The Spartans can win this game by just playing solid defense. The Wildcats are among the worst in the nation in scoring and don’t have a great scoring presence inside outside of Crawford, but he is just a 6-5 combo guard/forward. Northwestern would be wise to be aggressive tonight with the injury issues inside for the Spartans, but the Wildcats will still have their hands full defending the likes of Keith Appling and Gary Harris. Look for a lower-scoring game, but MSU stays unbeaten in Big Ten play. Michigan State 68, Northwestern 58

Northwestern at Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

Northwestern at Michigan

Time: Noon ET

Venue: Crisler Center

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Northwestern 7-7, 0-1 Big Ten; Michigan 9-4, 1-0 Big Ten

Northwestern stat leaders: Points – Drew Crawford (15.9 ppg); Rebounds – Crawford (7.7 rpg); Assists – Dave Sobolewski (3.2 apg); Steals – Sobolewski/Sanjay Lumpkin (0.9 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Nik Stauskas (17.8 ppg); Rebounds – Glenn Robinson III (4.7 rpg); Assists – Stauskas (3.3 apg); Steals – Robinson III/Caris LeVert (1.2 spg).

Current Streaks: Northwestern L2, Michigan W3

Point Spread: Michigan -15

Prediction: Northwestern isn’t looking too good so far this season and Michigan is coming off a nice win on the road. The Wolverines didn’t always look their best against Minnesota but the play of Stauskas and Horford should help boost the team going forward without McGary coming back any time too soon. I think Michigan wins this game comfortably, as Northwestern will have enough trouble finding conference wins at home, let alone on the road. Michigan will shoot its way to a quick lead and then slowly pull away. Michigan 78, Northwestern 62

Predictions for MSU vs. Northwestern and Michigan vs. Iowa

No. 13 Michigan State at Northwestern

I don’t know that this will be a walk in the park for Michigan State, but the Spartans will get the win. Partly because the Spartans are the better team, and partly because Northwestern appears cursed this season. Michigan State should continue to ride the legs of Jeremy Langford and control the tempo of the game with its offense. Defensively, Northwestern isn’t likely to beat Michigan State’s one-on-one coverage. The Wildcats will have to run the ball to win, and I don’t seem them being able to do that consistently. Northwestern will go into the second half of the game within reach of MSU, but ultimately the Spartans will pull away and lock up the Legends Division.

Prediction: Michigan State 30, Northwestern 13

Michigan at Iowa

Some might think that Michigan’s win on the road last week might give the Wolverines a spark. I am not of that mindset. Michigan’s offense could only put up 9 points on Northwestern in regulation. The unit is still struggling and not able to win at the line of scrimmage. This week, the offense runs into a tough Iowa defense that will cause it all sorts of problems. Michigan may be able to win this game if its defense can dominate a below average Iowa offense, but the Hawkeyes are playing in their home finale. That’s not to say the Iowa offense will put up a lot of points, but they won’t need to. I see the Hawkeyes scoring just enough to beat Michigan, which will continue to struggle with the football.

Prediction: Iowa 17, Michigan 13

Predictions for MSU vs. Nebraska/Michigan vs. Northwestern

Michigan State at Nebraska

With Taylor Martinez out, I am not sure how Nebraska’s offense can consistently post points on Michigan State. The MSU defense should be able to contain Ameer Abdullah and the duo of Nebraska quarterbacks likely won’t be able to successfully hit the big throws downfield. The MSU offense isn’t anything special, but the Spartans have been stronger on the road than they have been at home. I think Connor Cook will play well enough to combine with the run game to produce some points. Michigan State has a lot to play for and should come out motivated. Look for the Spartans to win somewhat comfortably.

Michigan State 24, Nebraska 14

Michigan at Northwestern

I don’t feel great about this, but I am picking Michigan to win. The Wolverines eventually have to show some heart during this losing period and this would be a good game to do so. Northwestern’s defense isn’t very good, which should allow the Wolverines to move the ball again. Michigan’s defense will probably allow some big plays in the process, but not enough to win. Despite Michigan’s problems, Northwestern has been an even bigger mess this year. Look for the Wolverines to pick up a tough win. If they don’t, they may not see another win this season.

Michigan 27, Northwestern 24

Michigan's final five may keep it from a Big Ten title in 2013

The college football season is just around the corner and the anticipation for the 2013 season is great for both Michigan and Michigan State.

The Wolverines have high hopes to make a run at the Big Ten title and the Spartans are hopeful to get back in the mix after a disappointing 2012.

Putting MSU aside for today, one thing that really looks like it could stand in the way of Michigan’s chances to win the Big Ten this season is its schedule, mainly its final five games.

The Wolverines will play five consecutive weeks of challenging games to end the season, then have to play the following week in the Big Ten Championship, if it hopes to win a conference crown this year.

Here is what the final five games look like for Michigan:

Nov. 2 at Michigan State

Nov. 9 vs. Nebraska

Nov. 16 at Northwestern

Nov. 23 at Iowa

Nov. 30 vs. Ohio State

Let’s start with the first game against MSU in East Lansing. The Wolverines have lost their last two meetings with the Spartans on the road and Michigan hasn’t won by more than a touchdown at Spartan Stadium since 1997. Win or lose, this game will be a physical battle and the Spartans will be treating it like their biggest game of the year. It will be a very tough start to a tough stretch.

Then Michigan heads home to face Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are arguably right there with Michigan in regards to winning the Legends Division in 2013. This will be the toughest game Nebraska has on its schedule. The home team has dominated both meetings, but the Cornhuskers come in with a veteran offense and one of the top playmakers in the Big Ten, quarterback Taylor Martinez.

Next up is Northwestern. The Wildcats will be coming off a bye week and eager to get a shot at Michigan after last season’s 38-31 loss in overtime at The Big House. Northwestern hasn’t exactly been a problem for Michigan in the past, but the Wildcats look to have a promising team this season. Beating the Wildcats at home could be a problem.

Following that tough road game, Michigan then heads to Iowa the following week. The Hawkeyes have won three of their last four against the Wolverines, and winning in Iowa City hasn’t been an easy task for the Wolverines as of late. Iowa may be the worst team on paper in the group, but beating the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium is no small feat. Prior to last season, Iowa was 23-5 at home from 2008-2011.

The schedule closes with the big rivalry game against Ohio State at home. Certainly anything can happen in this game and Michigan will definitely be ready, but there isn’t much arguing that Ohio State comes into the season as the Big Ten favorite. Braxton Miller looks to be the Big Ten’s top player and quarterback this season and Urban Meyer has the most success of any coach in the conference. It will take everything Michigan has to win this game, and even if it does, can it possibly have anything left to win another game the following week, especially if the Wolverines face the Buckeyes again?

I think when you look at each game on paper, you can argue that Michigan can win each game. But winning all five in consecutive weeks seems like too great of a challenge.

How do you think Michigan will do in its final five games of the season?

What will Michigan's record be over its final five games?

Northwestern at Michigan State Breakdown & Prediction

Northwestern at No. 10 Michigan State

Time: 6 p.m.

Venue: Breslin Center

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Northwestern 13-17, 4-13 Big Ten; Michigan State 23-7, 12-5

Northwestern stat leaders: Points – Drew Crawford (13.5 ppg); Rebounds – Jared Swopshire (6.7 rpg); Assists – Dave Sobolewski (3.9 apg); Steals – Reggie Hearn (1.2 spg).

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (13.4 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (7.6 rpg); Assists – Keith Appling (3.7 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.6 spg).

Current Streaks: Northwestern L7, Michigan State W1

Point Spread: Michigan State -19.5

Prediction: Michigan State could have everything to play for tonight if Michigan takes care of business against Indiana. If the Indiana-Michigan game is close, the Spartans won’t know for sure what the Big Ten situation looks like at the tip of its game, so they should go in with the attitude that this game is for the title. Northwestern has been a mess the last month and the Wildcats are probably looking to get the regular season over with quickly. With it being senior day for MSU, I don’t see the Spartans lacking energy on the floor. They should be able to take care of business right from the start. I don’t feel comfortable saying MSU will cover this lofty spread, but I do see it winning comfortably. Michigan State 62, Northwestern 47

Northwestern at Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

Northwestern at No. 1 Michigan

Time: 6:30 p.m.

Venue: Crisler Center

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Northwestern 12-9, 3-5 Big Ten; Michigan 19-1, 6-1

Northwestern stat leaders: Points – Reggie Hearn (14.0 ppg); Rebounds – Jared Swopshire (6.6 rpg); Assists – Dave Sobolewski (4.3 apg); Steals – Hearn (1.3 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (17.9 ppg); Rebounds – Glenn Robinson III (6.0 rpg); Assists – Burke (7.1 apg); Steals – Burke (1.4 spg).

Current Streaks: Northwestern L1, Michigan W3

Point Spread: Michigan -18

Prediction: I can’t say I expect Northwestern to put up too much of a fight, but I do think that Michigan could be looking ahead to Saturday’s game at Indiana a little bit. The Wolverines haven’t been overly impressive in their last few home games against lesser teams and the Wildcats will come out motivated after the thrashing they took at home to the Wolverines to open conference play. Michigan will win comfortably, but I think Northwestern will cover the 18-point spread. Michigan 75, Northwestern 60

Roushar the easy target for MSU's struggles

There is plenty of blame to go around at Michigan State this season for the Spartans’ current 5-6 record.

Of all of the blame that is getting passed out, it seems the most is going on second-year offensive coordinator, Dan Roushar.

It seems fair to say that the MSU defense has played better than the 5-6 record this year, which means that the offense is coming up short.

When you look at where the Spartans fit in the Big Ten picture, they currently rank 11^th in scoring (19.7 ppg), ninth in yards (365.7 ypg), fourth in passing (2,482 yards) and ninth in rushing (1,541 yards).

In the national aspect, MSU ranks 110^th in the nation in scoring, 70^th in passing and 89^th in rushing.

Another big stat working against Roushar this year is scoring in the red zone. The Spartans have scored at least a field goal in 32 of 39 red zone appearances this year, but have just 20 touchdowns in those 39 opportunities.

Settling for field goals instead of touchdowns has been a crucial reason for why Michigan State has come up short, especially when you consider its five Big Ten losses have come by a combined 13 points.

Roushar is just the play caller, and it takes the players to execute the plays that are called. But when the same issues come up week after week, someone has to shoulder the responsibility.

Against Northwestern, the Spartans fumbled in the red zone on a third and one, and later, were stopped on a fourth and goal from the 1-yard line as Le’Veon Bell was hit for a 3-yard loss as soon as he touched the ball.

The Spartans have had injury issues this year and have worked in a lot of new pieces at receiver, and certainly at quarterback with Andrew Maxwell replacing Kirk Cousins.

But the numbers have taken a dramatic dip from last year as MSU averaged 31 points per game.

So, should the blame be on Roushar, or should it be on the likes of Maxwell and the offensive players?

MSU head coach Mark Dantonio says the blame should be on him. He pointed that out during his weekly press conference on Tuesday saying:

“The responsibility for how we play, falls on me. That’s how it’s got to be. Everybody is soul searching, but it has to start at the top and trickle down, and that’s with me.”

Dantonio also said that evaluating his assistants is about a lot more than just what happens on the field.

Dantonio has always been a loyal guy and protective of his staff and players. Roushar has been with MSU since Dantonio has been head coach and the two were together for two years at Cincinnati. It would be surprising to see Dantonio fire Roushar after one bad season, but the pressure will be on Roushar next season to improve the offensive numbers and help improve the win total.

Predictions for Michigan/Iowa & MSU/Northwestern

Another Saturday of college football is upon us. Here are my predictions for the two games taking place.

Iowa at Michigan

I think this is a game Michigan can win with some ease. The Hawkeyes are a mess right now, having lost four straight. The Michigan defense shouldn’t break much of a sweat to keep the Iowa offense in check and the Wolverines should continue to build off their offensive performances of the last two weeks. Devin Gardner has played well thus far at quarterback and I expect that to continue. If Denard Robinson is given his shot to play in what is his final home game, I think he will come through with some big plays. Essentially, anything less than a comfortable win would be surprising to me. Michigan needs to carry some momentum into next week against Ohio State and Iowa is a perfect opponent for that to happen.

Michigan 31, Iowa 13

Northwestern at Michigan State

Despite MSU’s strength against the run defensively, I still expect Northwestern to be able to move the ball on the ground. The Wildcats have found a way to be competitive in every game this year and I don’t see that changing against the Spartans. For the MSU offense, I expect a solid showing, as the Wildcats are giving up nearly 400 yards per game. Le’Veon Bell will get his chance to shine, but I think it will be the MSU passing game that ultimately guides it to a victory. We have seen the Wildcats give up big plays in the secondary recently and Michigan State should look to attack them deep. I do think this game will be close and come down to the end, but I see the Spartans edging the Wildcats to become bowl eligible.

Michigan State 24, Northwestern 20

Is a win for MSU on Saturday worth celebrating?

As Michigan still fights for a potential spot in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday against Iowa, Michigan State finds itself with an important game as well, though the rewards are not nearly as sweet.

A win over Northwestern at home on Senior Day will make the Spartans bowl eligible.

I think it is fair to say that few expected it to take to Game 11 for Michigan State to get bowl eligible this year.

Coming into the season, expectations were high for the Spartans. Whether it be a Big Ten Championship or a 10-win season, few saw MSU doing all it could to have winning record at the end of the year.

Saturday will be telling for Michigan State for a few reasons.

The first will be if the Spartans can beat an above-average Northwestern team.

The Wildcats proved last week that they aren’t to be overlooked and certainly Michigan State hasn’t proven it can look past anyone. If you can’t beat Iowa at home, you can’t just step on the field at Spartan Stadium and expect to walk through Northwestern.

However, if Michigan State wants to remain a program that has some high expectations, it has to win this game.

The second reason this game will be telling is on how the Spartans (players and fans) celebrate if they do win.

Is getting bowl eligible a big enough accomplishment for the program?

Mark Dantonio has led MSU to a bowl in each of his five seasons as coach. That is an accomplishment to be proud of given the Spartans were shutout of the bowl season three straight years before his arrival.

However, Dantonio had been building Michigan State into something more than just a bowl team, as MSU had been at the forefront of the Big Ten title picture the last two seasons.

As an outsider, I consider this to be a disappointing season for Michigan State. The Spartans should have expected more and shouldn’t be satisfied with a 6-or-7-win season.

When you consider the talent on the defensive side of the ball, this was a prime opportunity for Michigan State to contend for the Big Ten title.

Ohio State is unable to contend for the title and Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin have all arguably played below expectations.

You can also expect all four of those teams to keep getting better, which may leave the Spartans as the odd team out in the Big Ten picture for the future.

It’s not crazy to think most of the top talent on MSU’s team this year could be gone next year. Le’Veon Bell and William Gholston have to consider moving on to the NFL when you think of the injury risks that come with going through another season.

Should Spartan fans just be happy with making a bowl game year-in and year-out, or should it expect to win a Big Ten Championship and play in the Rose Bowl once every handful of years?

MSU needs to define its expectations and decide if it wants to be an average program or if it wants to be a force in the Big Ten.

Last year when the Detroit Lions made the playoffs, head coach Jim Schwartz said “There's going to come a time when we don't celebrate going to the playoffs, or getting into the playoffs. It's not going to be tonight.”

Tomorrow (if MSU wins) will not be a time for celebrating. If the Spartans really want to be considered in the same discussion as Michigan as a football program, you don’t celebrate just making a bowl.

Making a bowl should be the first in a long list of goals and expectations each year if you are going to be a great program.

The Wolverines have already locked up a bowl win, but their fan base is still largely upset with the season because Michigan doesn’t control its own destiny in the Big Ten race with two games left.

I know this comes off like a Michigan fan belittling Michigan State, but it’s not.

The Wolverines were awful during the Rich Rodriguez era and I wasn’t sure Michigan’s expectations would ever get back to where they were when Lloyd Carr was coach.

But, Brady Hoke arrived, won 11 games last year and is in contention to win 10 this season if it wins out.

Hoke has essentially created his own monster because now Michigan fans won’t tolerate a letdown season. He must get to nine wins or more each year, and even some won’t accept that.

So, to get back to my point, will MSU fans accept this season? Is it okay for Mark Dantonio to have this team win just six or seven games? Should he feel some pressure going into next season if he can’t get MSU back to 8-to-10 wins?

It’s a thin line, but what side you stand on in this argument defines your expectations for what the MSU program should be.

Is becoming bowl eligible an accomplishment in college football