Connecticut vs. Michigan State Breakdown & Prediction

No. 7 Connecticut vs. No. 4 Michigan State

Time: 2:20PM ET

Venue: Madison Square Garden

TV: CBS

Records: Connecticut 29-8; Michigan State 29-8

Connecticut stat leaders: Points – Shabazz Napier (17.9 ppg); Rebounds – Napier (5.9 rpg); Assists – Napier (4.9 apg); Steals – Napier (1.8 spg).

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Garry Harris (16.6 ppg); Rebounds – Branden Dawson (8.3 rpg); Assists – Keith Appling (4.5 apg); Steals – Harris (1.9 spg).

Current Streaks: Connecticut W3, Michigan State W6

Point Spread: Michigan State -5.5

Prediction: I like the Spartans in this one because MSU has the capability to slow down Napier with a concentrated defensive effort. I am sure most teams focus on Napier, but MSU actually has the athletes and depth to carry out the game plan. DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright can cause problems, but MSU should take the risk of having those two beat them as opposed to Napier. Napier is aggressive, but that just means that the Spartans need to make him earn his points. Give him a hard foul when he attacks or make him spend energy when dribbling around the perimeter. Tom Izzo is an old school coach and I am sure he is going to have a plan to slowly tire Napier out with physicality and energy. Offensively, Michigan State will feel be very happy to not see Virginia again on the other side, which should open up the offense. Transition opportunities will be there and I suspect Gary Harris will have a big game coming off a quite performance against Virginia. The reason State has been successful as of late is because of the play of Dawson and Payne, but today I see the game going to Harris. The Spartans just have more offensive weapons than UConn and I think that is the difference in the game. Michigan State 73, Connecticut 65

Michigan State vs. Virginia Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Virginia

Time: 9:57PM ET

Venue: Madison Square Garden

TV: TBS

Records: Michigan State 28-8; Virginia 30-6

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Garry Harris (16.9 ppg); Rebounds – Branden Dawson (8.3 rpg); Assists – Keith Appling (4.6 apg); Steals – Harris (1.9 spg).

Virginia stat leaders: Points – Malcolm Brogdon (12.6 ppg); Rebounds – Akil Mitchell (7.0 rpg); Assists – London Perrantes (3.8 apg); Steals – Brogdon (1.1 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan State W5, Virginia W5

Point Spread: Michigan State -2

Prediction: This game should be interesting. There is no doubt it is likely to be a physical contest. Virginia brings in one of the best defenses in the country and Michigan State counters with one of the most talented offenses in the nation. On the flip side, Virginia is average on offense, and Michigan State lacks focus on defense at times. It will be important for MSU to match Virginia’s defensive intensity. The Spartans can win this game with defense. Virginia isn’t going to run wild on offense and light it up from 3-point land unless the Spartans allow them to. Strong defense can also lead to transition opportunities on offense, which will be the Spartans’ best chance to attack the Cavaliers’ defense. The refs could play a big role in this game. It is sure to be physical in the paint and MSU can’t afford to have Payne and Dawson get into foul trouble. Both have been key in the tournament run. I still feel strongly that a good offense will beat a good defense in college basketball. Obviously the offense has to shoot well, but I think MSU has such a variety of weapons that it will find the hot hand throughout the game. Virginia is going to have to have one of its best nights offensively to win this game, and I don’t see that happening. The Spartans should be mentally ready for this game and be able to win. Michigan State 70, Virginia 63

Updated Final Four & National Championship Picks

My initial NCAA Tournament predictions haven’t been too bad.

Six of my Elite 8 picks are still alive, as are all four of my Final Four picks.

Still, there were some bumps in the road.

As Sweet 16 play begins tomorrow, I thought I would update my predictions.

South Region: I expected Florida to take on Syracuse or Kansas in the Elite 8, but the bottom half of this bracket has been upset after upset. I like the Gators to get past UCLA and Stanford to beat Dayton. Really, I don’t see any of the three teams getting past Florida. The Gators’ defense has really been clicking and should be strong enough to limit any of these three offenses. Florida won’t be truly pushed until the Final Four.

West Region: I am sticking with my original pick of Arizona vs. Wisconsin in the Elite 8 with the Wildcats getting the win. Baylor could be a real problem for the Badgers. The Bears have finally been playing like the team many expected them to be in the preseason. I think Arizona’s defense will outshine San Diego State’s and the Wildcats will ultimately bee too much for the Badgers on Saturday.

East Region: This is one of the few regions that I had nearly perfect. The lone game I missed was Harvard upsetting Cincinnati. I am looking for Michigan State to beat Virginia in a close game. The Cavaliers have been great on defense, but they also haven’t seen an offense like MSU’s. If the Spartans bring some effort to the defensive side of the court, they should be able to win this game. Despite the injury to Georges Niang, I still like Iowa State over Connecticut. The Cyclones have a lot of talent on offense and I don’t trust the Huskies to continue their strong play. In the Elite 8, MSU will be able to get past Iowa State as the Spartans have more talent, especially with Niang out. MSU should be able to score at will and make enough stops on defense to outscore ISU.

MidWest Region: I had Duke reaching the Elite 8 but certainly wasn’t shedding a tear when it lost to Mercer. Things have opened up for Michigan in this region, but the Wolverines have a tough matchup with a surging Tennessee team that has the bodies to pose a problem for Michigan. Tennessee can rebound, but so could Texas. Though Michigan was outrebounded 41-30 by Texas, it had no impact on the game. Michigan can beat anyone if it shoots well and can lose to anyone if it shoots poorly. I see the Wolverines beating the Vols. Playing in a big stadium like Lucas Oil will have no impact on Michigan, but it could have a major impact on Tennessee. Louisville and Kentucky should be a great game. There is already the rivalry feel and Kentucky is playing more like a 1 seed than an 8. I am sticking with Louisville as my pick, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Kentucky win. In the regional final, I am keeping my original pick of Louisville. The Cardinals were able to beat Michigan last year with a great second half in the title game and Pitino will know the right way to play the Wolverines.

Final Four: Sticking with MSU over Florida and Louisville over Arizona. Don’t feel as strongly about Louisville as I once did, though.

National Championship: Sticking with MSU over Louisville. If the Spartans reach the Final Four, I really think they win. Florida could get in their way, but I think this weekend is really where it will be won or lost. They will potentially face a great defense (Virginia) and a great offense (Iowa State). Two very different teams. If they can’t handle what a team like Florida would bring, I think that would be exposed against Virginia on Friday and ultimately lead to a loss.