Kentucky vs. Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Michigan

Time: 5:05PM ET

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

TV: CBS

Records: Kentucky 27-10; Michigan 28-8

Kentucky stat leaders: Points – Julius Randle (15.1 ppg); Rebounds – Randle (10.7 rpg); Assists – Andrew Harrison (3.9 apg); Steals – Aaron Harrison (1.1 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Nik Stauskas (17.3 ppg); Rebounds – Jordan Morgan (5.0 rpg); Assists – Stauskas (3.3 apg); Steals – Caris LeVert (1.2 spg).

Current Streaks: Kentucky W3, Michigan W3

Point Spread: Kentucky -2

Prediction: This should be a heck of a basketball game. Both teams have tremendous talent that should play in the NBA and both teams are obviously playing at a high level. The loss of Willie Cauley-Stein will be big for Kentucky, but the Wildcats can still win without him. If Michigan is going to win, it is going to have to show a better defensive effort than it typically does. Kentucky has the athletes to get into a shootout with the Wolverines and win. Jordan Morgan will again play a key role, dealing with Julius Randle, who has been playing as well as anyone in the tournament. If Morgan continues to play as well as he has, I think Michigan wins. He has done a good job of keeping the bigger bodies out of the paint when they get the ball and making them work hard for their shots. Offensively, Michigan will need to continue to shoot well. I am not sure the Wolverines can continue to hit their 3-point shots like they have, but today is not a good day for that to change. I am not sure what to expect with Kentucky’s perimeter defense. They have the capability to defend well, but get too relaxed at times. I am going to pick Michigan to win, but to me, this game is a toss-up. I could see it coming down to the last shot, but I could also see each team winning by a lot if the other goes cold on offense. Hopefully we see a classic. Michigan 76, Kentucky 75

Updated Final Four & National Championship Picks

My initial NCAA Tournament predictions haven’t been too bad.

Six of my Elite 8 picks are still alive, as are all four of my Final Four picks.

Still, there were some bumps in the road.

As Sweet 16 play begins tomorrow, I thought I would update my predictions.

South Region: I expected Florida to take on Syracuse or Kansas in the Elite 8, but the bottom half of this bracket has been upset after upset. I like the Gators to get past UCLA and Stanford to beat Dayton. Really, I don’t see any of the three teams getting past Florida. The Gators’ defense has really been clicking and should be strong enough to limit any of these three offenses. Florida won’t be truly pushed until the Final Four.

West Region: I am sticking with my original pick of Arizona vs. Wisconsin in the Elite 8 with the Wildcats getting the win. Baylor could be a real problem for the Badgers. The Bears have finally been playing like the team many expected them to be in the preseason. I think Arizona’s defense will outshine San Diego State’s and the Wildcats will ultimately bee too much for the Badgers on Saturday.

East Region: This is one of the few regions that I had nearly perfect. The lone game I missed was Harvard upsetting Cincinnati. I am looking for Michigan State to beat Virginia in a close game. The Cavaliers have been great on defense, but they also haven’t seen an offense like MSU’s. If the Spartans bring some effort to the defensive side of the court, they should be able to win this game. Despite the injury to Georges Niang, I still like Iowa State over Connecticut. The Cyclones have a lot of talent on offense and I don’t trust the Huskies to continue their strong play. In the Elite 8, MSU will be able to get past Iowa State as the Spartans have more talent, especially with Niang out. MSU should be able to score at will and make enough stops on defense to outscore ISU.

MidWest Region: I had Duke reaching the Elite 8 but certainly wasn’t shedding a tear when it lost to Mercer. Things have opened up for Michigan in this region, but the Wolverines have a tough matchup with a surging Tennessee team that has the bodies to pose a problem for Michigan. Tennessee can rebound, but so could Texas. Though Michigan was outrebounded 41-30 by Texas, it had no impact on the game. Michigan can beat anyone if it shoots well and can lose to anyone if it shoots poorly. I see the Wolverines beating the Vols. Playing in a big stadium like Lucas Oil will have no impact on Michigan, but it could have a major impact on Tennessee. Louisville and Kentucky should be a great game. There is already the rivalry feel and Kentucky is playing more like a 1 seed than an 8. I am sticking with Louisville as my pick, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Kentucky win. In the regional final, I am keeping my original pick of Louisville. The Cardinals were able to beat Michigan last year with a great second half in the title game and Pitino will know the right way to play the Wolverines.

Final Four: Sticking with MSU over Florida and Louisville over Arizona. Don’t feel as strongly about Louisville as I once did, though.

National Championship: Sticking with MSU over Louisville. If the Spartans reach the Final Four, I really think they win. Florida could get in their way, but I think this weekend is really where it will be won or lost. They will potentially face a great defense (Virginia) and a great offense (Iowa State). Two very different teams. If they can’t handle what a team like Florida would bring, I think that would be exposed against Virginia on Friday and ultimately lead to a loss.

Michigan vs. Florida Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida

Time: 2:20PM ET

Venue: Cowboys Stadium

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 29-7; Florida 29-7

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.1 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Florida stat leaders: Points – Mike Rosario/Erik Murphy (12.6 ppg); Rebounds – Patric Young (6.3 rpg); Assists – Scottie Wilbekin (4.9 apg); Steals – Wilbekin (1.4 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W3, Florida W3

Point Spread: Florida -2.5

Prediction: I am a little surprised Florida is favored. I think Michigan has the momentum on its side with its improbable comeback against Kansas, and Florida hasn’t faced much of a difficult road to get to this game, beating a double-digit seed in every game in the tournament. Florida has been a tough team defensively, but its offense is lacking. The Gators also played in a down SEC conference while Michigan had to battle it out in the Big Ten. I think the Wolverines are more battle tested than the Gators and Michigan has the better athletes. The only way I see Michigan losing this game is if it plays into Florida’s hands with its approach on offense. I do expect the Gators to get some easy baskets along the way, but Michigan will be able to outscore the Gators as long as it takes care of the basketball and shoots reasonably well. I think Michigan gets to its first Final Four since 1993 (first recognized Final Four since 1976). Michigan 69, Florida 62

A second look at Michigan's improbable comeback over Kansas

Friday’s Sweet 16 game between Michigan and Kansas featured one of the more improbable finishes in tournament history and surely was one of the most memorable wins in the history of Michigan’s men’s basketball program.

Things got really crazy with three minutes to go in the game, Kansas leading 70-62. I went back and re-watched the game from this point. Here is what I saw, ultimately knowing the unlikely outcome.

2:52: Kansas’ Jeff Withey puts home a one-handed slam on a nice pass under the basket from Kevin Young. Kansas leads 72-62. That dunk seemed to be the final nail in Michigan’s coffin at the time.

2:25: After Tim Hardaway Jr. misses a pair of shots, including a 3-pointer, Kansas’ Elijah Johnson makes a poor decision on the other end and attacks the paint instead of slowing things down to let time run off the clock. Facing a trap from Hardaway and Trey Burke, he lobs a pass toward the top of the key to Withey, but Glenn Robinson III makes a great play to tip it away. He then tracks the ball down on the other end and slams it home in stride to make it 72-64 and give Michigan new life. It was one of a few key plays down the stretch from Robinson, and one of a few big mistakes from Johnson.

2:03: Johnson makes another poor decision, lazily bringing the ball up the floor after the Robinson dunk. Burke defends him hard and draws a 10-second violation. There was no reason for Johnson to allow this to happen. Two huge turnovers in less than 30 seconds for Johnson and Kansas.

1:52: Burke patiently works his way into the lane, drawing Withey to step up and get vertical. Burke passes under Withey to Mitch McGary, who finishes the easy lay-in. 72-66 Kansas. Four crucial points off the two Johnson turnovers, and those two baskets really seemed to give Michigan the momentum.

1:22: McGary called for a foul when he attempts to block a dunk attempt by Kansas’ Travis Releford. The replay shows a clean block, but it looked bad in live action. Releford hits both free throws. 74-66 Kansas.

1:14: Wasting little time, Burke hits an NBA 3-pointer over Withey to make it 74-69. Michigan with a time out after the score.

0:28.8: Michigan elects not to foul. Kansas gets a good look at the basket with Ben McLemore getting inside the paint, but he misses the off-balanced shot. Jordan Morgan rebounds it and gets it to Burke, who make a great down-court pass to Hardaway, who is wide open on the wing for 3. Hardaway misses again, but in a scramble for the rebound, Robinson gets it and hits a tough reverse lay-in to make it 74-71. Beilein uses his final time out. Robinson again comes up with a big hustle play.

0:21.0: Caris LeVert fouls Johnson. He hits both free throws in a 1&1 situation. 76-71 Kansas.

0:14.0: With Withey not on the floor, Burke quickly attacks the lane and gets a lay-in, 76-73. Michigan then quickly fouls Johnson again.

0:12.6: Johnson misses the first of a 1&1. Hardaway boards and gets it to Burke, which leads to…..

0:04.2: Burke hits drains an amazing 3-pointer, nearly halfway between half court and the 3-point line. We all knew Burke had range, but this shot is incredible. Game tied 76-76. Kansas takes a time out. Young nearly gets a piece of the shot on replay. Kansas really couldn’t have done anything short of fouling Burke before the shot, but I don’t think anyone expected him to launch it from there with 5 seconds left on the clock. That shot will go down in Michigan history. If the Wolverines go on to win a national title, that shot will be the equivalent of the Tayshaun Prince block of Reggie Miller in the Pistons’ 2004 run to the championship.

0:00: Naadir Tharpe misses a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Tharpe had a great look as LeVert oddly playing very far off him. It could have cost Michigan the game. You’d like to see a player challenge defensively and at least make Tharpe take an off-balanced shot. I understand the concern about fouling, but he gave Tharpe far too much room.

Overtime

4:30: Young gets an easy lay-in under the basket. Robinson tried to double up Withey, who was already being well defended by McGary. Robinson got too aggressive and left his man open for the easy 2. 78-76 Kansas.

4:01: Burke hits another NBA 3-pointer at the top of the key. Withey doesn’t step out at all to challenge and Burke is on another planet right now. 79-78 Michigan. First lead for the Wolverines since it was 9-8.

3:47: Releford hits two free throws after a blocking foul. Kansas regains the lead, 80-79.

3:20: Burke does it again, dribbling down McLemore before hitting a long 2 in his face. Nothing but net. Michigan leads, 81-80. Kansas just can’t do anything to stop him at this point.

2:34: After Nik Stauskas misses a wide-open 3-pointer on the baseline, Kansas runs the floor and Young gets a lay-in in transition. Kansas 82-81. It was the final lead for the Jayhawks.

2:15: McGary hits a tough turnaround jumper on the baseline with Withey in his face. One of the better shots I have seen McGary hit. Michigan leads 83-82.

1:04: Burke attempts a one-handed runner that goes long. Withey has the rebounding position, but Robinson again comes up big, tipping the ball out of Withey’s hands. McGary collects it for a quick lay-in. Michigan leads 85-82. Kansas calls a time out.

0:52.1: Robinson comes up big once again. Johnson tries to pass behind himself again and Robinson gets his long arm on the ball and gets fouled before he can breakaway for an easy 2. In a big moment, Robinson hits both free throws to close out the scoring for Michigan. Wolverines lead 87-82.

0:45.0: Johnson hits a 3-pointer from the top of the key. Michigan leads 87-85. Good shot coming off a screen.

0:09.4: Burke unable to put the game away, as Withey gets a piece of his runner. The shot clock expires during a scramble. After a lengthy video review, Kansas gets the ball with 9.4 left.

0:00.0: Johnson goes coast-to-coast and drives to the baseline. It looks like he could have taken a runner from an odd angle to tie the game, but had Morgan following behind him for a possible block. Johnson instead wildly kicks the ball out to Tharpe, who has to throw up a contested one-legged 3-point shot that hits hard off the glass and misses. Michigan wins, 87-85.

There were so many big moments in this final 8 minutes of play. Obviously McGary had a great game and Burke had a legendary second half and overtime, but Robinson III deserves a lot of credit in the comeback. He had a rough game defensively and was out-muscled a number of times by Kansas players, but he came through in a big way. Without his hustle plays, Burke never gets a chance to become a legend.