Michigan vs. Florida Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida

Time: 2:20PM ET

Venue: Cowboys Stadium

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan 29-7; Florida 29-7

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.1 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Florida stat leaders: Points – Mike Rosario/Erik Murphy (12.6 ppg); Rebounds – Patric Young (6.3 rpg); Assists – Scottie Wilbekin (4.9 apg); Steals – Wilbekin (1.4 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W3, Florida W3

Point Spread: Florida -2.5

Prediction: I am a little surprised Florida is favored. I think Michigan has the momentum on its side with its improbable comeback against Kansas, and Florida hasn’t faced much of a difficult road to get to this game, beating a double-digit seed in every game in the tournament. Florida has been a tough team defensively, but its offense is lacking. The Gators also played in a down SEC conference while Michigan had to battle it out in the Big Ten. I think the Wolverines are more battle tested than the Gators and Michigan has the better athletes. The only way I see Michigan losing this game is if it plays into Florida’s hands with its approach on offense. I do expect the Gators to get some easy baskets along the way, but Michigan will be able to outscore the Gators as long as it takes care of the basketball and shoots reasonably well. I think Michigan gets to its first Final Four since 1993 (first recognized Final Four since 1976). Michigan 69, Florida 62

A second look at Michigan's improbable comeback over Kansas

Friday’s Sweet 16 game between Michigan and Kansas featured one of the more improbable finishes in tournament history and surely was one of the most memorable wins in the history of Michigan’s men’s basketball program.

Things got really crazy with three minutes to go in the game, Kansas leading 70-62. I went back and re-watched the game from this point. Here is what I saw, ultimately knowing the unlikely outcome.

2:52: Kansas’ Jeff Withey puts home a one-handed slam on a nice pass under the basket from Kevin Young. Kansas leads 72-62. That dunk seemed to be the final nail in Michigan’s coffin at the time.

2:25: After Tim Hardaway Jr. misses a pair of shots, including a 3-pointer, Kansas’ Elijah Johnson makes a poor decision on the other end and attacks the paint instead of slowing things down to let time run off the clock. Facing a trap from Hardaway and Trey Burke, he lobs a pass toward the top of the key to Withey, but Glenn Robinson III makes a great play to tip it away. He then tracks the ball down on the other end and slams it home in stride to make it 72-64 and give Michigan new life. It was one of a few key plays down the stretch from Robinson, and one of a few big mistakes from Johnson.

2:03: Johnson makes another poor decision, lazily bringing the ball up the floor after the Robinson dunk. Burke defends him hard and draws a 10-second violation. There was no reason for Johnson to allow this to happen. Two huge turnovers in less than 30 seconds for Johnson and Kansas.

1:52: Burke patiently works his way into the lane, drawing Withey to step up and get vertical. Burke passes under Withey to Mitch McGary, who finishes the easy lay-in. 72-66 Kansas. Four crucial points off the two Johnson turnovers, and those two baskets really seemed to give Michigan the momentum.

1:22: McGary called for a foul when he attempts to block a dunk attempt by Kansas’ Travis Releford. The replay shows a clean block, but it looked bad in live action. Releford hits both free throws. 74-66 Kansas.

1:14: Wasting little time, Burke hits an NBA 3-pointer over Withey to make it 74-69. Michigan with a time out after the score.

0:28.8: Michigan elects not to foul. Kansas gets a good look at the basket with Ben McLemore getting inside the paint, but he misses the off-balanced shot. Jordan Morgan rebounds it and gets it to Burke, who make a great down-court pass to Hardaway, who is wide open on the wing for 3. Hardaway misses again, but in a scramble for the rebound, Robinson gets it and hits a tough reverse lay-in to make it 74-71. Beilein uses his final time out. Robinson again comes up with a big hustle play.

0:21.0: Caris LeVert fouls Johnson. He hits both free throws in a 1&1 situation. 76-71 Kansas.

0:14.0: With Withey not on the floor, Burke quickly attacks the lane and gets a lay-in, 76-73. Michigan then quickly fouls Johnson again.

0:12.6: Johnson misses the first of a 1&1. Hardaway boards and gets it to Burke, which leads to…..

0:04.2: Burke hits drains an amazing 3-pointer, nearly halfway between half court and the 3-point line. We all knew Burke had range, but this shot is incredible. Game tied 76-76. Kansas takes a time out. Young nearly gets a piece of the shot on replay. Kansas really couldn’t have done anything short of fouling Burke before the shot, but I don’t think anyone expected him to launch it from there with 5 seconds left on the clock. That shot will go down in Michigan history. If the Wolverines go on to win a national title, that shot will be the equivalent of the Tayshaun Prince block of Reggie Miller in the Pistons’ 2004 run to the championship.

0:00: Naadir Tharpe misses a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Tharpe had a great look as LeVert oddly playing very far off him. It could have cost Michigan the game. You’d like to see a player challenge defensively and at least make Tharpe take an off-balanced shot. I understand the concern about fouling, but he gave Tharpe far too much room.

Overtime

4:30: Young gets an easy lay-in under the basket. Robinson tried to double up Withey, who was already being well defended by McGary. Robinson got too aggressive and left his man open for the easy 2. 78-76 Kansas.

4:01: Burke hits another NBA 3-pointer at the top of the key. Withey doesn’t step out at all to challenge and Burke is on another planet right now. 79-78 Michigan. First lead for the Wolverines since it was 9-8.

3:47: Releford hits two free throws after a blocking foul. Kansas regains the lead, 80-79.

3:20: Burke does it again, dribbling down McLemore before hitting a long 2 in his face. Nothing but net. Michigan leads, 81-80. Kansas just can’t do anything to stop him at this point.

2:34: After Nik Stauskas misses a wide-open 3-pointer on the baseline, Kansas runs the floor and Young gets a lay-in in transition. Kansas 82-81. It was the final lead for the Jayhawks.

2:15: McGary hits a tough turnaround jumper on the baseline with Withey in his face. One of the better shots I have seen McGary hit. Michigan leads 83-82.

1:04: Burke attempts a one-handed runner that goes long. Withey has the rebounding position, but Robinson again comes up big, tipping the ball out of Withey’s hands. McGary collects it for a quick lay-in. Michigan leads 85-82. Kansas calls a time out.

0:52.1: Robinson comes up big once again. Johnson tries to pass behind himself again and Robinson gets his long arm on the ball and gets fouled before he can breakaway for an easy 2. In a big moment, Robinson hits both free throws to close out the scoring for Michigan. Wolverines lead 87-82.

0:45.0: Johnson hits a 3-pointer from the top of the key. Michigan leads 87-85. Good shot coming off a screen.

0:09.4: Burke unable to put the game away, as Withey gets a piece of his runner. The shot clock expires during a scramble. After a lengthy video review, Kansas gets the ball with 9.4 left.

0:00.0: Johnson goes coast-to-coast and drives to the baseline. It looks like he could have taken a runner from an odd angle to tie the game, but had Morgan following behind him for a possible block. Johnson instead wildly kicks the ball out to Tharpe, who has to throw up a contested one-legged 3-point shot that hits hard off the glass and misses. Michigan wins, 87-85.

There were so many big moments in this final 8 minutes of play. Obviously McGary had a great game and Burke had a legendary second half and overtime, but Robinson III deserves a lot of credit in the comeback. He had a rough game defensively and was out-muscled a number of times by Kansas players, but he came through in a big way. Without his hustle plays, Burke never gets a chance to become a legend.

Michigan vs. Kansas Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 1 Kansas

Time: 7:37PM ET

Venue: Cowboys Stadium

TV: TBS

Records: Michigan 28-7; Kansas 31-5

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.9 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.7 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Kansas stat leaders: Points – Ben McLemore (15.8 ppg); Rebounds – Jeff Withey (8.5 rpg); Assists – Elijah Johnson (4.7 apg); Steals – Travis Releford (1.3 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W2, Kansas W5

Point Spread: Kansas -2

Prediction: This is obviously one of the biggest games, if not the biggest, Michigan has had in quite some time. A spot in the Elite 8 is on the line and the winner of this game could easily be favored to reach the Final Four out of the South Region. Michigan looked fantastic last week at The Palace, but are the Wolverines going to be able to take that show on the road? There is no secret that Michigan struggled away from Ann Arbor toward the end of the season. Kansas will likely have the crowd support for this game and playing in a big stadium like this can sometimes impact a team’s shooting as they get accustomed to the size of the building. Michigan will need to shoot well from the outside. Kansas center Jeff Withey does a great job of defending in the post and altering shots from guards as they try to attack the lane. If Michigan isn’t able to shoot consistently well from the perimeter, I don’t think it can win. Michigan will also need to defend well. Kansas hasn’t shot that well in the first two tournament games, but the Jayhawks can get hot quickly. Ultimately I think Michigan can win, but I need the Wolverines to prove to me they can win away from home in a big game. I just get the sense that some of the young players will go AWOL again and keep Michigan from getting this victory. Kansas 72, Michigan 65

VCU vs. Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

No. 5 VCU vs. No. 4 Michigan

Preview story

Time: 12:15PM ET

Venue: The Palace of Auburn Hills

TV: CBS

Records: VCU 27-8; Michigan 27-7

VCU stat leaders: Points – Treveon Graham (15.2 ppg); Rebounds – Juvonte Reddic (8.2 rpg); Assists – Darius Theus (4.9 apg); Steals – Briante Weber (2.7 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.6 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.7 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Current Streaks: VCU W1, Michigan W1

Point Spread: Michigan -3.5

Prediction: I have gone back and forth on this game. I really think it should be a fantastic contest. I think VCU will pose its problems for Michigan with the aggressive press, but I also think the Wolverines will find their fair share of transition baskets thanks to their solid ball handling. Michigan will turn it over more than usual, but it will also get some good looks at the basket in the paint and from 3-point land. With the game being at The Palace, and Michigan getting the support from the crowd, I see it shooting well. The real key will be how well Michigan plays on defense and if it can keep VCU from getting high-percentage looks. In the end, I think Michigan will do just enough to win. Michigan 76, VCU 71

Does Michigan or MSU have the tougher road to the Final Four?

Now that we have all had a day to chew on the NCAA Tournament field, it is time to start really breaking it down.

MSU

I think there isn’t much debate that Michigan State has a tough draw. The Midwest region looks to be the toughest of the four regions. What the Spartans have in their favor is that they play their first two games at the Palace, and then would have to go to Indianapolis for the regional final four.

Valparaiso poses an interesting opening challenge for the Spartans. Valpo is ranked 59^th in the RPI but was 0-2 against teams in the top 50 of the RPI, falling to Saint Louis and New Mexico, both by 13 points. Valpo averages an impressive 71.7 points per game, but struggles in the rebounding department, ranking 248^th in the nation at 32.9 per game.

Should MSU get past Valpo, it will likely encounter Memphis in the round of 32. The Tigers have an impressive resume, winning 30 games and sitting 14^th in the RPI. Memphis went 9-4 against the RPI top 100, but 0-2 against the top 25 in the RPI. The Tigers have an up-tempo offense that could give the Spartans problems, and they also battle in the paint, ranking 39^th in the nation in rebounding.

I think MSU can win both games in Detroit, partly due to the home-crowd support. The real test comes in the second weekend with the potential of having to beat Duke and Louisville to get to the Final Four. Michigan State certainly can beat both teams, but the Spartans will have to come out and play with the intensity it had when it hosted Michigan. I don’t count out Tom Izzo in the NCAA Tournament, but a Final Four appearance doesn’t seem in the cards to me.

Michigan

Michigan faces an intriguing opponent in its first game, as the Wolverines play Summit League champion, South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits sit 63^rd in the RPI rankings and were 4-4 against RPI top 100 teams, including a 70-65 win over New Mexico. SDSU averages 73.9 points per game and is led by one of the top players in the country, Nate Wolters, who averages 22.7 points per game. I think Michigan is okay in this game because the Wolverines have the ability to score with most teams. The Jackrabbits don’t rely on overwhelming defense and physical play to win games, which is what gives Michigan the most trouble.

The real intriguing game comes in the Round of 32 as Michigan will be matched up with VCU or Akron. VCU is the expected opponent as the No. 5 seed. The Rams are 24^th in the RPI and come out of the very-competitive Atlantic 10 conference. VCU has experience of getting to the Final Four under head coach Shaka Smart. The Rams were 12-8 against top 100 RPI teams and 3-3 against Top 25 RPI teams. VCU plays a very aggressive style of basketball, averaging 78 points per game and 11.8 steals per game. The Rams force just under 20 turnovers a game for their opponents. I do think this is a matchup that could be a problem for many teams, but it should be something Michigan can handle. Trey Burke handles the ball well most games and, if Michigan can break the press of VCU, it will get a lot of high-percentage shots.

Like MSU, Michigan has the luxury of playing its first two games at the Palace, which should help settle the nerves of postseason play. I do think Michigan makes it to the second weekend of the tournament, but I see the Wolverines have trouble beating Kansas in the regional semifinal, especially against a pro-Kansas crowd in Dallas. Michigan has the talent to compete with anyone, but we haven’t seen that total team performance on the road in a big game. If Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are able to step up, it could be a very successful tournament run for Michigan.

Who has the tougher road to the Final Four

My Immediate NCAA Tournament Overreactions

Alright, it is finally time to see the NCAA Tournament field. I am sure CBS will drag this out over the next hour. Just hit refresh to get my thoughts as the field is announced.

- Louisville named the No. 1 overall seed. I'd say it's surprising, but winning the Big East regular season and tournament title pushed it ahead of Indiana. The Cardinals will be the top seed in the Midwest Region.

Midwest Region Thoughts
- Tough draw for Oklahoma State to face Oregon in the opener as the 5-12 matchup.
- I really like Saint Louis. They will be a tough out as the No. 4 seed.
- Louisville has a tough draw with Duke as the No. 2 seed in its region. Arguably the best No. 2 paired with the top overall seed.
- MSU the No. 3 seed and playing at the Palace. The Spartans face Valpo in the opening round. No. 6 Memphis facing No. 11 Middle Tennessee & St. Mary's.
- The Spartans will have a tough game against Memphis in the second round if it holds up. That is a 30-win team out of the Conference USA. Memphis is No. 18 in the BPI rankings. The Tigers have lost to Louisville, Minnesota, VCU and Xavier.
- MSU will get its first two games at the Palace, which will help its chances, but the regional Final Four could feature Duke, Louisville and Saint Louis. That will be a tough weekend.

South Region Thoughts
- Kansas gets the top seed in the South region. Not too surprising.
- Possible Kansas-UNC matchup in the second round is intriguing.
- VCU (5) facing Akron (12) at the Palace. That will be a great contest.
- Michigan (4) faces South Dakota State (13) in the opener. SDS is the Summit League champion, which features Oakland.
- The Wolverines really dropped in seeding over the past few weeks, but was able to keep that spot at the Palace, which is big for a team that has struggled away from home.
- Michigan's game will be about Trey Burke vs. Nate Wolters. Two tremendous guards that can score a lot of points.
- VCU may not be a bad matchup for Michigan either. VCU really likes to apply defensive pressure, but Michigan has been known to take care of the ball. VCU also isn't a very big team, but it is deep.
- Overall, I feel the South is not nearly as tough as the Midwest. Kansas and Georgetown are strong, but beatable. Florida is a tough No. 3, but I feel the SEC is a weak conference this year.

East Region Thoughts
- Indiana is the top seed out East. Regional semifinals and finals are at Washington D.C.
- I feel like Indiana and Syracuse (4) have a relatively easy road to the Sweet Sixteen in this bracket.
- I have really wanted to see Indiana vs. Miami this season. The Hurricanes are the No. 2 seed in the East.
- Illinois gets the No. 7 seed in the East. The Illini meet up with No. 10 Colorado. Should be a good opening-round meeting.
- I think the East may be the easiest bracket yet. Indiana and Miami are both solid, but I don't think Syracuse and Marquette (3) have been reliable teams this season. I would argue Syracuse is tougher than Marquette, which makes things easier for Miami to get to the Elite Eight.

West Region Thoughts
- Gonzaga is the No. 1 seed, but might have a tough early meeting with Pitt (8) or Wichita State (9). Both teams are capable of giving Gonzaga all it can handle.
- Wisconsin gets the No. 5 seed. Tough draw for it as it plays Ole Miss (12). Would have thought Wisconsin played up to a No. 4 this weekend.
- Kansas State is the No. 4 seed in this region. Not too scared of the Wildcats.
- Ohio State gets the No. 2 seed in the West. It plays Iona (15).
- Notre Dame (7) has a tough game with Iowa State (10) in the opener. Iowa State has been a tough out this season.
- New Mexico is a team many don't know a ton about, but the Lobos are very strong. Ohio State-New Mexico could be the real game for the Final Four in this region.
- I have no doubt that Wisconsin could beat Gonzaga if it gets a shots at them.
- The West seems to be the weakest overall region. I question Gonzaga being the No. 1 seed. I think Ohio State and New Mexico are solid, but Kansas State is questionable to me.

My Way Too Quick Final Four Picks: Louisville, Kansas, Miami, New Mexico

Michigan vs. Wisconsin Breakdown & Prediction

No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 22 Wisconsin

Time: 2:25PM ET

Venue: United Center

TV: ESPN

Records: Michigan 26-6, 12-6 Big Ten; Wisconsin 21-10, 12-6

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (19.2 ppg); Rebounds – Glenn Robinson III (5.5 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Wisconsin stat leaders: Points – Jared Berggren (11.5 ppg); Rebounds – Ryan Evans (7.5 rpg); Assists – Traevon Jackson (2.8 apg); Steals – Jackson (1.0 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W1, Wisconsin W1

Point Spread: Michigan -3

Prediction: Similar to the win over Penn State, I would expect Michigan to play a highly-motivated game against Wisconsin on Friday. The Badgers gave the Wolverines one of their toughest losses of the season in Madison. Michigan clearly has more talent than the Badgers. The only way for Wisconsin to win is to out-work the Wolverines and dominate the glass, which is possible. However, I think Michigan will build off its strong second half against Penn State and match Wisconsin’s defensive intensity. It won’t take a ton of points to beat the Badgers, so Michigan just needs to be aggressive and create open looks on the perimeter through dribble penetration. In the end, I see Michigan winning by double digits. Michigan 66, Wisconsin 55

Penn State vs. Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

Penn State vs. No. 6 Michigan

Time: 2:25PM ET

Venue: United Center

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Penn State 10-20, 2-16 Big Ten; Michigan 25-6, 12-6

Penn State stat leaders: Points – Tim Frazier (16.3 ppg); Rebounds – Ross Travis (7.3 rpg); Assists – D.J. Newbill (4.1 apg); Steals – Frazier (2.3 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (19.2 ppg); Rebounds – Glenn Robinson III (5.5 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Current Streaks: Penn State L1, Michigan L1

Point Spread: Michigan -14.5

Prediction: Penn State has certainly played Michigan tough this season, but I see the Wolverines coming into this game with a lot of motivation for revenge. The Nittany Lions handed Michigan its most embarrassing loss of the season. Michigan will look to correct that and make a statement against Penn State. Michigan also knows the importance of picking up a few wins this week to improve its NCAA Tournament seeding. Penn State might start fast, but I ultimately look for the Wolverines to take control and win comfortably. Michigan 71, Penn State 56

Indiana at Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

No. 2 Indiana at No. 7 Michigan

Time: 4PM ET

Venue: Crisler Center

TV: CBS

Records: Indiana 25-5, 13-4 Big Ten; Michigan 25-5, 12-5

Indiana stat leaders: Points – Cody Zeller (16.5 ppg); Rebounds – Zeller (8.0 rpg); Assists – Kevin Ferrell (4.3 apg); Steals – Victor Oladipo (2.3 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (19.1 ppg); Rebounds – Glenn Robinson III (5.5 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.9 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).

Current Streaks: Indiana L1, Michigan W2

Point Spread: Even

Prediction: I’m pretty torn on this one. Indiana has bounced back strong from all of its losses this season, but Michigan hasn’t lost yet at home. The Wolverines will need a full team effort to get this win. Michigan can’t afford to have some starters disappear as it has had in some of its road losses. Defense will be key as well. Michigan has proven it can play good defense in stretches, but it needs to make a commitment to defending against Indiana on Sunday. Ohio State showed that Indiana will back down to physical play, but the Wolverines aren’t known for throwing their weight around. Trey Burke can put his stamp on Big Ten, and maybe even National, Player of the Year honors if he leads Michigan to the win. I think he does that on Sunday. There is something about being at home that makes Michigan a tougher team, mentally and physically. It will be a grind until the end, but I think the Wolverines do a favor for MSU and Ohio State by beating the Hoosiers and creating a 4-way tie for the conference title. Michigan 70, Indiana 66

Michigan at Purdue Breakdown & Prediction

No. 7 Michigan at Purdue

Time: 7PM ET

Venue: Mackey Arena

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Michigan 24-5, 11-5 Big Ten; Purdue 14-15, 7-9

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.6 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.9 apg); Steals – Ronnie Johnson (0.9 spg).

Purdue stat leaders: Points – Terone Johnson (12.9 ppg); Rebounds – A.J. Hammons (6.3 rpg); Assists – Ronnie Johnson (3.9 apg); Steals – Frazier (2.3 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W1, Purdue W1

Point Spread: Michigan -6

Prediction: Michigan has new life with Ohio State beating Indiana in Bloomington on Tuesday night. The Wolverines should come into this game with focus and motivation. If the ability to win the Big Ten title wasn’t motivation enough, last week’s loss at Penn State should be. Michigan had a strong second half against Michigan State last Sunday, and that can be something it can build on. Purdue is coming off its biggest win of the season, winning at Wisconsin, 69-56. The Boilermakers can be a dangerous team if they shoot the ball well, but they haven’t shown much consistency in a 40-minute game throughout the season. I don’t feel good about saying Michigan should win easy, because it clearly hasn’t been at its best for a while, but I do think the Wolverines come out strong and win comfortably at Purdue. Michigan 66, Purdue 56

What kind of run will Michigan make in the NCAA Tournament?

Trying to figure out this Michigan basketball team has been difficult.

Prior to non-conference play, I would have been willing to put money on the Wolverines reaching the Final Four this season.

After the loss to Penn State, I would have put money on Michigan to lose early in the NCAA Tournament.

Now, after a grind-it-out win over Michigan State, I am not sure what to think.

I still feel like Michigan is a team that has lost its swagger. The Wolverines still have too many players that seem lost and shy away from the big moment. Ultimately, if Michigan is going to make a deep tournament run, it needs someone other than Trey Burke to step up from time to time.

The NCAA Tournament is just a few weeks away, so there is plenty of time for Michigan to alter my perception of what it will do in the Big Dance.

Sometimes it is the team that is struggling prior to the tournament that pieces it all together at the right time to make a magical run.

Sometimes when a team struggles away from home, the high-pressure of a NCAA Tournament game can be too much for it to handle.

After losing Penn State, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Michigan be one of the big first round upsets in the NCAA Tournament.

However, the talent Michigan possesses is great enough that it can make a run to the national championship.

With the Big Ten title out of the equation (I don’t see Indiana losing at home to Ohio State), the determination of a successful season for Michigan all depends on postseason play.

What are your thoughts?

Just what will Michigan do in the NCAA Tournament?

How far will Michigan get in the NCAA Tournament?

Michigan State at Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

No. 9 Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan

Time: 4 p.m.

Venue: Crisler Center

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan State 22-6, 11-4 Big Ten; Michigan 23-5, 10-5

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (13.4 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (7.3 rpg); Assists – Appling (3.8 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.7 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.6 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.9 apg); Steals – Burke (1.4 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan State L2, Michigan L1

Point Spread: Michigan -4

Prediction: Both teams are coming into this game a bit wounded by losses. Michigan State has suffered a pair of close losses to Indiana and Ohio State, while Michigan suffered an embarrassing loss to Penn State during the week. This win is crucial to both teams, not so much for the Big Ten race, but for NCAA Tournament seeding. Michigan has gone from being an expected No. 1 seed, to seeing a three or four seed in its future if it doesn’t get back on track. MSU still has a shot at the Big Ten Title if it wins out, and an impressive Big Ten Tournament showing could still give the Spartans a potential No. 1 seed. When it comes to Sunday’s game, I see it all coming down to toughness, both physical and mental. The Spartans dominated the toughness category in a 75-52 win over Michigan at the Breslin on Feb. 12. The Spartans dominated in all aspects of the game and took the Wolverines out mentally. Michigan had mental lapses and poor defense cost it against Penn State, and defense has been a big question mark for the Wolverines’ in their last seven games. Say what you will about talent, it doesn’t mean much if Michigan refuses to toughen up defensively. The Wolverines can’t allow MSU to control the paint like the first meeting, and Glenn Robinson III can’t check out mentally when called upon. Despite riding a two-game losing streak, Michigan State still has a clear toughness advantage over Michigan. Keith Appling had one of the worst weeks of basketball he will ever have, yet the Spartans lost two games to two ranked teams by a combined 12 points. Appling will be motivated to get out of his funk and rise to the challenge of facing off with Trey Burke. Michigan will also be up for the challenge of hosting MSU and getting payback, but I don’t see that being enough to beat the Spartans. I trust Tom Izzo over John Beilein, and Michigan has proven to wilt under pressure as of late. Unless the Wolverines shoot over 50 percent for the game, I don’t see them winning. Give me the Spartans in a season sweep. Michigan State 70, Michigan 64

Michigan at Penn State Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan at Penn State

Time: 6:30PM ET

Venue: Bryce Jordan Center

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Michigan 23-4, 10-4; Penn State 8-18, 0-14

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.7 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.9 apg); Steals – Burke (1.4 spg).

Penn State stat leaders: Points – Tim Frazier (16.3 ppg); Rebounds – Ross Travis (7.0 rpg); Assists – D.J. Newbill (4.0 apg); Steals – Frazier (2.3 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan W2, Penn State L14

Point Spread: Michigan -13

Prediction: The second half of Michigan’s win over Illinois was the best basketball the team had played in weeks. Penn State gave the Wolverines a little bit of a scare in Ann Arbor, but Michigan has new life in the Big Ten race, thanks to Indiana’s loss to Minnesota. Technically speaking, Michigan controls its own destiny in the conference race, as it can win a share of the title if it ends the season 4-0. I don’t expect Michigan to come out flat in this one. The Wolverines know they need to put this game away early and start preparing for its game with Michigan State on Sunday. Michigan 72, Penn State 58.

Illinois at Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

Illinois at No 7 Michigan

Time: 1PM ET

Venue: Crisler Center

TV: ESPN

Records: Illinois 20-8, 7-7 Big Ten, Michigan 22-4, 9-4

Illinois stat leaders: Points – Brandon Paul (16.4 ppg); Rebounds – Joseph Bertrand/Nnanna Egwu (4.5 rpg); Assists – Tracy Abrams (3.5 apg); Steals – D.J. Richardson (1.5 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.6 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.9 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.9 apg); Steals – Burke (1.5 spg).

Current Streaks: Illinois W5, Michigan W1

Point Spread: Michigan -11

Prediction: Illinois has really built off its win over Indiana, as the Illini have a nice five-game winning streak right now. The Wolverines handed Illinois a bad loss on the road, but both teams seem to be in a different place right now. Illinois is playing as well as it has all conference season, while Michigan is still recovering from a string of road losses. I do think Michigan wins this contest, but Illinois is going to be a much tougher out this time around. The Wolverines need to start sparking on defense to build some confidence for a late run at the Big Ten title. It can start on Sunday, but I don’t think it will. Michigan 69, Illinois 66.

Penn State at Michigan Breakdown & Prediction

Penn State at No. 4 Michigan

Time: Noon

Venue: Crisler Center

TV: Big Ten Network

Records: Penn State 8-16, 0-12 Big Ten, Michigan 21-4, 8-4

Penn State stat leaders: Points – Tim Frazier (16.3 ppg); Rebounds – Ross Travis (7.0 rpg); Assists – D.J. Newbill (4.0 apg); Steals – Frazier (2.3 spg).

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.2 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.0 rpg); Assists – Burke (7.0 apg); Steals – Burke (1.4 spg).

Current Streaks: Penn State L12, Michigan L2

Point Spread: Michigan -22.5

Prediction: Michigan will probably look really strong in this one, but beating Penn State shouldn’t mean much. With the rough stretch for Michigan over, and the Wolverines back home, this game should be over early. Michigan knows it essentially has to win out to earn the Big Ten title. Penn State has had 10 of its 12 Big Ten losses come by at least nine points. The Nittany Lions don’t offer much on the court, especially on the road. Michigan wins and wins big. Michigan 71, Penn State 53.

Who deserves the most blame for Michigan's losses?

It’s been a tough stretch for the Michigan basketball team.

The Wolverines have now lost three of their last four and have four losses in the Big Ten.

Granted, Michigan played a gauntlet of top teams in their last four games, but an “elite” team finds ways to win some of the games the Wolverines have lost.

Tuesday’s loss at Michigan State was clearly embarrassing for the Wolverines. Not only did they lose, they were never in the game. Michigan State owned Michigan from the tip and all of the Wolverines’ flaws appeared at once.

Michigan is a better team than it showed on Tuesday, we all know that. But, in order for the Wolverines to reach the Final Four, they are going to have to beat a top-level team in an environment away from home. The NCAA Tournament may not be quite as hostile as the Breslin Center or Assembly Hall, but the games will have just as much, if not more, pressure.

Is Michigan choking in these loses? I don’t think the whole team is, but some clearly are.

John Beilein – It’s tough to take credit away from the coach, because he has recruited well and built the Wolverines into what they currently are. But, Beilein needs to pick up some marquee wins away from home to solidify that he is the guy that can take Michigan to a Final Four or more. Big Ten titles are good, but I think we all want to see Michigan reach a Final Four before we give them credit in the national picture.

Glenn Robinson III – Robinson has been a complete disappointment in the last three losses. He has a combined eight points in those games on 4 of 16 shooting. He also has just nine combined rebounds. He did have eight points in the loss to Ohio State and was more aggressive, taking eight shots. On Tuesday, it was like Robinson wasn’t even at the Breslin Center. It’s one thing to have a rough night shooting, it is another thing when you seemingly give up. Michigan is going to need Robinson to contribute come March Madness.

Nik Stauskas – Stauskas hasn’t been nearly as bad as Robinson in my opinion. He has bounced back from his scoreless effort at Ohio State, though that was pretty bad. Stauskas had 10 points on Tuesday and 10 at Indiana, but just five in the loss to Wisconsin. He has struggled with his 3-point shooting in defeat, as he is just 4 for 17 from beyond the arc in Michigan’s four losses.

Trey Burke – I know, I know. Burke has been amazing this season and the Wolverines would be half the team they are without him. I can’t say Burke deserves a lot of blame in these losses, but I do think he can play better than he has. Tuesday was his best showing in a loss, as he went 7 of 11 with 18 points, but he had just four assists, which is well below his average of 7. He also spent more time than Michigan can afford on the bench, due to foul trouble. At Wisconsin, Burke was just 8 of 21 shooting and also had just four assists. At Indiana, Burke was 9 of 24 shooting, but did dish out eight assists. At Ohio State, Burke was only 4 of 13 shooting with four assists and four turnovers. Burke is at his best when he has a balance of scoring and facilitating. He makes his teammates better most nights, which is why Michigan has been as strong as it has been this season. Sometimes Burke looks like he feels he needs to put the whole game on himself, and that leads to lapses in scoring for the whole team. Granted, his teammates need to step up to help him, but he also has to play at a higher level in these games. He’s an incredible talent, but he needs to lead this team to a big win away from home.

So, who deserves the most blame for Michigan’s losses? I say it’s Robinson, but it’s not 100 percent on him. What are your thoughts?

Who deserves the most blame for Michigan's 4 losses

Michigan at Michigan State Breakdown & Prediction

No. 4 Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State

Time: 9 p.m.

Venue: Breslin Center

TV: ESPN

Records: Michigan 21-3, 8-3 Big Ten; Michigan State 20-4, 9-2

Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.2 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.1 rpg); Assists – Burke (7.1 apg); Steals – Burke (1.4 spg).

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (14.1 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (6.8 rpg); Assists – Appling (4.1 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.8 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan L1, Michigan State W3

Point Spread: Michigan -1

Prediction: This game is all someone like me can hope for. I don’t have an affiliation to either team, but know that when both teams are playing at a high level, it makes the rivalry that much better. This game is one of the biggest regular-season meetings between these two programs. The Big Ten title implications for this game are massive and you can feel the anticipation in the air. I would be disappointed if this was anything other than a great game. I expect it to be close throughout and come down to the final few possessions. I am sure the atmosphere at the Breslin Center will be tremendous. When it comes to the game, I think Michigan State can find plenty of points in the paint if they choose to be aggressive on offense. Mitch McGary has improved, but he is going to be tested trying to keep Derrick Nix out of the lane. Adreian Payne can be a tough matchup for the Wolverines as well because of his outside shooting and athleticism. For Michigan, the Wolverines need all hands on deck. In the road losses, there have been key players that have went missing. For the most part, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III have been the biggest culprits for disappearing in the big games. If Michigan can get the whole starting five involved, it can win tonight. However, it has been a trend for the Wolverines to have key players disappear, and I think that will happen again tonight. I have to pick against Michigan until it proves to me that it can win one of these big road games. I think Michigan has more talent, but they just haven’t been able to grind out a big win on the road. Michigan State is unbeaten at home for a reason and they have the better coach on the sidelines. Michigan State 69, Michigan 66

The top 5 road wins in the Big Ten this season

Road games are tough.

Coming into the start of conference play, most of us knew that road wins in the Big Ten would be at a premium, but I honestly didn’t think it would be this bad.

I thought by now that some of the teams would have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. However, that has not happened, and it is largely due to teams being unable to win on the road.

Coming into Sunday the combined record of Big Ten teams on the road is 25-39. When you also consider that 10 of those 25 wins are against Penn State and Nebraska, it is clear to see that the team that is most likely to win the Big Ten is the team that wins the most games on the road.

There haven’t been many “big” road wins in conference play yet. There are a few, which I will get to, but trying to come up with the top 5 road wins in the Big Ten this season wasn’t easy.

Right now, Indiana has the best road record at 4-1. But, their four wins come against four teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten.

Michigan State is next at 4-2, and is one of three teams with a unique win (i.e. a win that no other team has in the conference).

So, as hard as it may be to do, here is my attempt to rank the top 5 road wins in the Big Ten this season.

1. Wisconsin 64-59 at Indiana (Jan. 15) – This is the clear winner on this list. I didn’t expect the Hoosiers to lose at home at all this season, let alone to Wisconsin. The Badgers made Indiana look very human and the Hoosiers have since lost their mystique and are now struggling to win on the road, just like everyone else in the B1G.

2. Michigan State 49-47 at Wisconsin (Jan. 22) – Following the Badgers’ impressive win, Michigan State soon had to walk into the Kohl Center to attempt to get a victory in a place it has often struggled in. The Spartans dealt with the Badgers’ hassling defense and grinded out a win that looks very impressive right now, and is the biggest reason they are in first place in the conference. MSU is the only team to have won at Wisconsin this season.

3. Michigan 83-75 at Minnesota (Jan. 17) – Minnesota has been somewhat disappointing in conference play, but the Wolverines are the only team to beat the Gophers on their home court. With the Wolverines already having three losses in Big Ten play, this win against Minnesota is looking like a lifesaver right now.

4. Indiana 97-60 at Purdue (Jan. 30) – Yeah, it’s getting that tough already. Beating Purdue doesn’t mean much, as Ohio State and Michigan State have already done the same. But, the Hoosiers made an impressive statement in this win, throttling their in-state rival by 37 on their home court. This makes the list because of margin of victory.

5. A 21-way tie between the rest – I could have picked Michigan’s manhandling of Northwestern or Michigan’s/Wisconsin’s/Minnesota’s win over Illinois, but they all don’t have much value. At this point, every other win in the Big Ten on the road came against a team in the bottom half of the conference.

As you can see, it’s been slim pickings on the road for the Big Ten. As much as we thought Indiana and Michigan might be elite, it’s becoming clear that there isn’t an elite team in the Big Ten, or in college basketball in general.

Indiana has a lot of tough road games ahead and Michigan and Michigan State still have to tangle a few times before the champion will emerge. The winner must take care of its home court and manage to sneak out a few wins on the road.