Prediction for the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Michigan may have had a tough time beating Kansas State with Devin Gardner under center.

Now that Gardner is out, the Wolverines’ odds to win seem much worse.

The good thing for new quarterback Shane Morris is he has had about a month to prepare for the game, so he should feel ready. The problem is, this is still his first start and is against a pretty good Kansas State defense.

However, the Wildcats probably have prepared more for Gardner than Morris, which could lead to some coverage breakdowns. If Morris can be on point, the Michigan offense could actually find some success. However, I don’t feel strongly that Morris will come out and play a perfect game.

Kansas State brings a physical football team to the field on Saturday, something Michigan has not handled all too well. The Wildcats have the ability to move the ball on the ground and also can defense the run respectably well. The opportunity will be there for Morris to make a few plays, but he will have to make the most of those opportunities.

If the Michigan defense brings its best to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, the Wolverines have a shot, but I see this being another ugly football game for Michigan and Kansas State slowly pulling away. A disappointing season is likely to end with a disappointing performance on Saturday night. 

Kansas State 23, Michigan 13

Prediction for Nebraska vs. Michigan

Michigan has to be quite eager to get on the football field Saturday.

The Wolverines are coming off an embarrassing loss at Michigan State last week in which they were physically pushed around and outclassed.

Saturday, the Wolverines have a chance to move on when they host Nebraska in a key game in the Big Ten Legends Division landscape.

Just like I thought Michigan State was a tough matchup for Michigan last week, I think Michigan is a tough matchup for Nebraska this week.

The Cornhuskers have struggled defensively this year, and gave up 34 points to Minnesota on the road two weeks ago. Michigan shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against this defense like it did last week. Look for Devin Gardner to have a big game and the Wolverines to establish a steady run game.

Defensively, Michigan doesn’t have to worry about Taylor Martinez, as he is out with a hip injury. Freshman Tommy Armstrong Jr. will be under center instead. Armstrong has four touchdown passes to six interceptions and is completing just over 54 percent of his passes.

While Ameer Abdullah is a tough running back to stop, the Michigan defense can stack the box and put this game on Armstrong, who doesn’t appear to be up to the challenge of winning a big game on the road.

Michigan may still give up some points, but ultimately the offense will score more and hand Nebraska its second loss in the Big Ten and get the Wolverines back on track heading into the final three games of the season.

Prediction: Michigan 41, Nebraska 27

Prediction for Michigan vs. Michigan State

The Michigan-Michigan State game is about 24 hours away and my feelings on the game haven’t changed throughout the week.

It is funny how, after a few weeks into the season, I would have bet everything I had that Michigan was going to beat the Spartans in East Lansing this year. My how times can change.

It may extreme for me to say I don’t see how Michigan can win, but I see it as very unlikely for the Wolverines.

Michigan can win if Connor Cook has an awful day or if Devin Gardner is able to hit on a lot of deep balls, but Wolverine fans can’t feel very assured about that.

Cook doesn’t have to be great for MSU to win, he just needs to avoid big mistakes and convert some key third-down passes. The pressure isn’t on him as much as it is on Gardner to beat the talented MSU defense. Pat Narduzzi will certainly look to test Gardner early and hope to create a turnover on a quarterback that has been prone to giving the ball away.

I think the story of the game will be Michigan State dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I expect the Spartans to be able to run the ball efficiently and sustain a handful of drives throughout the game. Defensively, Michigan State should keep Michigan from establishing much of a run game and put plenty of pressure on Gardner, forcing him into bad throws.

Michigan will find some points, but Michigan State will find more. The Spartans have looked like the better team in recent weeks and I feel like they will be the better team on Saturday.

Prediction: Michigan State 24, Michigan 13

Reasons Michigan State can beat Michigan

Michigan State has the luxury of being at home on Saturday when it hosts rival Michigan at 3:30 p.m. The Spartans can really improve their chances at winning the Legends Division with a victory over the Wolverines. Here is a look at some reasons why they can beat Michigan on Saturday.

- Defense – It’s really no secret why Michigan State is 7-1 right now, it is largely due to its defense, which is one of the best in the country, and clearly the best in the Big Ten. MSU is giving up only 12.3 points and 215.6 yards per game. MSU’s worst outing came against Indiana, but the Spartans still held the Hoosiers to 28 points and 351 total yards, which are well below IU’s season averages of 42.4 points and 514 yards per game. Moving the ball on this unit has proven to be tough, especially when you have limited offensive weapons, as Michigan does.

- Winning up front – Michigan State has done a great job this season of controlling the line of scrimmage. The defensive line has been very impressive, leading an effort of allowing only 55 rushing yards per game. On offense, MSU didn’t start with a great line, but the group has improved and has been very strong in Big Ten play. Michigan State is averaging 206 rushing yards per game in conference action, and if the Spartans are able to control the tempo of the game with lengthy drives on offense, it will make things even more difficult for Michigan.

- Field position – It would be one thing if Michigan State was good on defense but awful on special teams, but that is not the case. Michigan State has one of the top punters in the Big Ten in Mike Sadler. Even if the Spartans stumble out of the gate on offense, Sadler should be able to keep the Wolverines pinned back. Michael Geiger is 6 of 7 on field goals right now and 3 of 3 on field goals from 40 yards and beyond. This game last year came down to a few points, so having a steady leg will be important.

- Devin Gardner – The Spartans don’t need any help on defense, but they may get it from Gardner. Gardner is a talented athlete with potential as a quarterback, but turnovers have been a big problem for him. He has 10 interceptions and a handful of lost fumbles this season. Michigan State’s defense has five touchdowns on its own this year, and with points at a premium in this game, a defensive touchdown for MSU might be all it needs to get the win. Gardner needs to be as close to mistake free as he can get if Michigan is going to win.

Reasons Michigan can beat Michigan State

On paper, I don’t feel like Saturday’s meeting with Michigan State is a good matchup for Michigan. Despite that, there are some areas I think Michigan can take advantage of. Here are some of the reasons the Wolverines can beat the Spartans.

- One-on-one coverage – Michigan State’s defense is so good that the Spartans can play one-on-one coverage on the outside. Most teams have taken a number of deep shots on the Spartans, but have been unable to capitalize on those attempts. Devin Gardner isn’t a great short-field passer, but has a big arm and a couple of athletic receivers in Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess. Michigan has the potential to hit on some big plays down field if Gardner gets time to throw deep.

- Mobile quarterback – Denard Robinson didn’t have a lot of success against Michigan State, but last season, mobile quarterbacks posed a problem for the Spartans. This is a different MSU team, but the defensive philosophies are still the same. Braxton Miller had over 300 total yards of offense in beating MSU in East Lansing last season while Taylor Martinez rushed for 205 yards while throwing for 160 at Spartan Stadium in 2012. Gardner is a better passer than Robinson and also has plenty of mobility, as he has rushed for 520 yards and nine scores this season.

- Dennis Norfleet – Norfleet hasn’t exactly been outstanding on kick returns, averaging just 24 yards per return, but it is clear he has the ability to break one. Norfleet could be a big weapon for the Wolverines on Saturday if he gets an opening. With the MSU defense being as strong as it is, Michigan is going to have to take advantage of special teams, with Norfleet being its biggest key.

- Connor Cook – Ultimately, this game looks like it will be decided by the Michigan State quarterback. Which Connor Cook will show up on Saturday? Will it be the one that struggled mightily against Purdue, going just 13 of 25 passing for 107 yards, or will it be the one that showed up last Saturday at Illinois, going 15 of 16 passing for 208 yards with three touchdowns? If Michigan faces the bad Cook, or if Cook feels the nerves in his first start in this rivalry, the Wolverines will have a great opportunity to win at Spartan Stadium.

An early look at Michigan vs. Michigan State

Michigan-Michigan State week is finally here.

Like most hoped, there is a lot on the line in this game. Not as much as there could have been, as both weren’t far from being unbeaten entering Saturday’s clash, but this game will go a long way in determining the Big Ten Legends Division champion.

A win for MSU clearly puts it in the driver’s seat, as it will have two games on Michigan and one game on Nebraska with the Cornhuskers still on the schedule and Nebraska heading to Michigan down the line.

Michigan can even things up with MSU with a win, which it will need with games against Nebraska and Ohio State still ahead.

Despite Michigan winning last season’s game, 12-10 in Ann Arbor, the Spartans have controlled the recent series between these two. Michigan State has won four of the last five and covered the spread in five straight meetings with Michigan.

Coming into this game, Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite, which I think is fair. I think on paper, this is a bad matchup for Michigan, largely due to Michigan State’s defense. Devin Gardner is going to have to play a smart game on Saturday for Michigan to win and avoid turning the ball over, which has been a big problem for him this season.

Conversely, Michigan’s defense has been shaky, but so has MSU’s offense. However, Michigan State’s offense has trended toward improvement in three of its last four games. You can’t say the same for the Michigan defense. It is entirely possible that Connor Cook could fold under the pressure and have an off day on Saturday, but it is also possible he could play like he did against Illinois and allow MSU to control the ball.

I’ll give my prediction later in the week, but this game certainly feels a bit bigger than I expected it to be when the season began. While I felt it would be an important game in the Big Ten race, I thought Michigan would be a much better team than it is at this point, and I didn’t expect the Spartans to be playing as well as they have on offense in conference play.

Reaction to Michigan's 28-24 win over Akron

I think most of us expected a letdown from Michigan on Saturday, but we couldn’t have expected what we got.

The Wolverines didn’t just have a letdown, they were fortunate to get a win at home over AKRON!

The Zips should have won that game. They arguably were the better team on Saturday in the 28-24 loss to the Wolverines at the Big House.

If it wasn’t for a pair of missed field goals, an INT in the end zone and a terrible play call on 3^rd and goal from the 1, the Zips would have won the game somewhat comfortably.

All the good that came from Michigan’s 2-0 start was essentially wiped away in Saturday’s win.

Devin Garnder, though he had not been perfect, had won over Michigan fans everywhere as “the guy.” On Saturday, Gardner looked lost and, even worse, was a turnover machine.

Gardner led Michigan to a win over Notre Dame. On Saturday, the Wolverines won in spite of him.

Gardner wasn’t the only problem, however.

The offensive line didn’t do much in the run game. Sure, Michigan had 185 rushing yards, but 112 of that came from Gardner. The Wolverines need to find a consistent running game with its collection of backs, especially with Big Ten play on the horizon.

Michigan’s defense has to be a concern as well. The Wolverines gave up 417 yards to an Akron team that averaged 303 yards per game after playing juggernauts like Central Florida and James Madison.

A letdown would have been an ugly 17-point win over the Zips. This was much more than that. This was concerning if you are a Wolverine fan. This had to put doubt, not only in the minds of Michigan fans, but in the minds of the players as well. Suddenly, next week’s game at Connecticut doesn’t look as appealing as it did a week ago.

Michigan still has a good football team, but it needs to progress, not regress. Devin Gardner is still a talented quarterback, but he has to learn from his mistakes.

Next week’s game will tell a lot about where this team is heading as it begins Big Ten play. If the Wolverines come out on the road and put a beating on the Huskies, then they got the message from Saturday’s mess. If the game is another nail-biter, it could be another disappointing season.

Predictions for Akron vs. Michigan/Youngstown State vs. MSU

Akron at Michigan, Noon ET

This should be a sizable win for Michigan at home. Coming off the emotional win against Notre Dame, the Wolverines could use a game like this, where it can afford to make some mistakes and still win. I don’t know that Michigan will look real crisp, as they could be looking past Akron, but the Wolverines should still win with ease. The Zips haven’t shown much ability to stop weaker offenses than Michigan, so look for Devin Gardner to put up impressive numbers. Michigan also should be able to work in a lot of running back options and the defense should hold Akron in check.

Michigan 41, Akron 6

Youngstown State at Michigan State, 2PM ET

MSU could spice this game up by having head coach Mark Dantonio spin a wheel prior to each offensive possession to determine which of the four quarterback options will take the field. The crowd would at least be on the edge of its seat for that. Youngstown State isn’t a bad FCS program and the Spartans would be foolish to come into this game overconfident for any reason, given its extreme offensive struggles. The Spartans need to find their offensive identity in this game, because it can’t go into the rest of the schedule not knowing who their quarterback is. I expect the MSU defense to continue to be impressive, but you can’t expect two more touchdowns this week. This one will be on the offense, and the unit better answer the call. If it can’t score against Youngstown State, just who are the Spartans going to score against?

Michigan State 20 (all from the offense), Youngstown State 10

Reaction to Michigan's 41-30 win over Notre Dame

Michigan got a big win at home Saturday night and Devin Gardner got a marquee win as starting quarterback of the Wolverines under his belt.

He almost let the game get away from him, but composed himself and helped lead the offense to finish the job in the fourth quarter.

There is reason for optimism at Michigan. It is now 2-0 and looking at a schedule that should allow the Wolverines to be 7-0 heading into the home stretch of the season.

The offense was great, racking up 460 yards of offense on Notre Dame. The Wolverines consistently moved the ball down the field and Devin Gardner took a step forward as a quarterback while Jeremy Gallon further improved his status as a playmaker.

Gardner finished with 294 yards and four touchdowns on 21 of 33 passing while rushing for 82 yards on 13 carries and a score. Gardner also overcame a bad situation in the game. Up 14 in the third quarter, he made a poor decision by trying to extend a play when it wasn’t necessary. He could have taken a sack and the game would have been in Michigan’s control, but instead he ran backwards into the end zone. From there, instead of take the safety that was inevitable, he tried to heave the ball away while being hit, but it ended up being caught by the Irish in the end zone for a touchdown, completely changing the complexion of the game.

Had Notre Dame went on to win and Gardner folded from that point forward, it could have changed the whole dynamic of the season and his career. Instead, he bounced back and threw another touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

Gallon had a tremendous game, catching eight passes for 184 yards. He made play after play for Gardner. Some were ad-libbed, and some were not. He is clearly establishing himself as a top receiver in the Big Ten.

Where Michigan can be somewhat concerned is on defense. The Wolverines gave up 410 yards to Notre Dame, including 314 passing yards. Michigan had plenty of chances to keep Notre Dame from staying in this game, but the defense just couldn’t get the stops.

Michigan isn’t going to face any powerful offenses for at least a month, so the Wolverines have time to fix the problems, but Michigan will certainly face better offenses than Notre Dame as the season progresses. The Wolverines found themselves getting pushed around up front later in the contest. It could have been fatigue, but it’s something that will have to be addressed.

All-in-all, it was a good night for Michigan and a big win on national television.

Michigan and Michigan State are both 2-0, but both fan bases have to feel drastically different about the state of their current teams.

Predictions for MSU vs. USF and Michigan vs. Notre Dame

South Florida at Michigan State

Despite the offensive struggles Michigan State had last weekend, the defense still looked very strong. Now the Spartans face a South Florida team that had just 342 yards of offense against McNeese State while allowing 424 total yards to the Cowboys. If Michigan State can’t consistently move the ball against the Bulls on Saturday afternoon, then there should be some real concerns about the MSU offense. I expect the Spartan defense to make some big plays early on, maybe even score a touchdown, and allow the offense to play with less pressure. No matter who is under center for MSU, they should be able to lead the offense to multiple scores.

Michigan State 34, South Florida 13

Notre Dame at Michigan

The Fighting Irish and Brian Kelly have given Michigan every reason to be pumped up for this game. Kelly gave the Wolverines the bulletin board material by saying Michigan wasn’t a “historic” rival for the Fighting Irish. Brady Hoke has probably been beating his players over the head with that. Adding to it all is the fact that this game is on national television and under the lights at the Big House. The crowd should be electric and carry Michigan to a strong start. If Devin Gardner can avoid turnovers, Michigan should be able to win this game. The Wolverines’ defense will be able to apply pressure to Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees. From there, it will be up to Rees to make good decisions, which I don’t think he will. With an early lead, the Michigan offense can control the ball and have steady drives on the ground and through the air. I don’t think the Wolverines will run away with this one, but I do think they will lead for nearly all of the game.

Michigan 27, Notre Dame 17

Reaction to Michigan's 59-9 win over CMU

It was a 59-9 win for Michigan, so what is there to complain about?

Maybe nothing, but the Wolverines’ victory on Saturday sure didn’t quite feel like a 50-point win.

But, perhaps that is a good thing for Michigan.

Both Brady Hoke and quarterback Devin Gardner felt there was plenty to still work on and I can’t disagree. I wrote a column for The Oakland Press on Gardner being the one that will make or break this team.

The Michigan offense came out a bit rusty, especially Gardner. The junior quarterback made some questionable throws early, but once he settled in, he played a strong game (10-for-15 162 yards 1TD, 2 INT; 7 rushes, 52 yards 2TD). It is clear that Michigan does have the ability to make plays in the passing game with the current roster. Jeremy Gallon (4 receptions, 47 yards) had a number of difficult catches and tight end Devin Funchess (2 receptions, 47 yards) has all the potential in the world.

The running game was steady, but none of the handful of running backs that were used put a real stamp on being “the man”. I thought freshman Derrick Green (11 carries, 58 yards) looked solid and has potential to be a great back. He seemed to earn himself more carries next week against Notre Dame.

The Michigan defense only allowed 210 total yards and was flying to the ball. Granted, the Wolverines faced an offense that lost its starting quarterback and starting running back in the first quarter, but Michigan was going to limit Central Michigan regardless.

The Wolverines got some big plays from all three units, including special teams right off the bat. There are plenty of reasons to nitpick and point out what went wrong, but you have to remember this was a season opener and mistakes will take place. The key for Michigan was, it was still able to score a lot of points and allow very few despite those mistakes. That’s not something the Michigan State offense could say for itself against a similar opponent on Friday.

Michigan obviously faces a tough test next Saturday and that game will provide more of a picture as to what fans can expect from the Wolverines in 2013.

Week 1 Odds for Michigan State and Michigan

Kickoff week has officially arrived. Both Michigan and Michigan State face in-state opponents this week to start the season. Here is a look at the odds for both games:

Michigan State -27 vs. Western Michigan

The Spartans kickoff the season at home against the Broncos on Friday night at 8 p.m. MSU has done pretty well against the Mid-American Conference the past few seasons, beating Central Michigan 41-7 in 2012, Central 45-7 in 2011 and Western Michigan 38-14 in 2010. I have plenty of doubts about how strong the MSU offense will be, but I do think the Spartans will look good on offense against the Broncos. Western Michigan is breaking in a lot of new parts, including a new head coach. It will take some time for all pieces to come together for the Broncos. Also, the Michigan State defense will probably be very stingy this season, so I can see WMU struggling to score points. In the end, 27 points is a lot to cover, but I think the Spartans will be able to do it in this instance.

Michigan -31.5 vs. Central Michigan

The Wolverines will host the Chippewas for their first meeting since 2006 on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Michigan has plenty of buzz coming into the season with Devin Gardner firmly planted as the team’s starting quarterback. The Michigan offense shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball on the Chippewas, who allowed 432 yards per game last season. Central Michigan will probably have its own problems on offense as well, as it breaks in a first-time starter in the Big House. While the Chippewas have a talented group of running backs, they no longer have Eric Fisher at left tackle to anchor the offensive line. Michigan should win comfortably, but the question is, can they win by at least 32 points? The Wolverines come into the game 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against MAC opponents, but CMU comes into the game 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games against the Big Ten. If Michigan is going to cover, it is going to need at least one defensive or special teams touchdowns, which is entirely possible.

What are your expectations for Devin Gardner in 2013?

The Denard Robinson era of Michigan football is officially over.

Now the Wolverines’ offense is solely in the hands of Devin Gardner.

Some Michigan fans have been waiting a few years for this time, while others feel Robinson was one of the all-time greats in Michigan’s football history.

Either way, now is Gardner’s time and the expectations for him are great.

The junior is a clear upgrade in terms of his passing. He completed 59.5 percent of his passes last season, going 75-of-126 during the year, which spanned five games and four starts. Gardner averaged 243.8 passing yards per game in his five appearances and he accumulated 11 touchdown passes to five interceptions.

I don’t think it is asking too much for Gardner to throw for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this season, as long as he stays healthy. I would expect Michigan to keep Gardner more in the pocket and not have him do too much running, like it did with Robinson.

Gardner averaged just 2.1 yards per carry last season, and while he is a great athlete, he is not nearly as comfortable running with the football as Robinson. I don’t think the Wolverines will shy away from having Gardner run a few times each game, but I don’t expect them to put Gardner in a position to get hit often.

Gardner gives Michigan the ability to run a pro-style offense that should be very effective and should get the Wolverines’ receivers more involved in the offense. Michigan hasn’t averaged more than 250 passing yards per game in a season since Lloyd Carr was the head coach. That could change this season.

What are your expectations for Devin Gardner in 2013? Will he ultimately be the quarterback that Michigan fans want?

How many yards will Devin Gardner pass for this season?

What was disappointing about Michigan's football season

The 2012 season is now completely finished with last night’s BCS Championship Game.

Michigan finished the season No. 24 in the AP Poll and completely out of the USA Today Poll. The Wolverines were behind teams like San Jose State and Northern Illinois in both polls. While you can argue that Michigan isn’t worse than those teams, the point is that Michigan didn’t live up to expectations this season.

The potential was there all season. Outside of the loss to Alabama (which was only strengthened by the Tide’s performance against Notre Dame), the Wolverines could have won all of the other games they lost.

Each loss had a different story. One loss was about the offense turning the ball over. Another loss was about the defense struggling. Other losses were about injuries and preparation.

Coming off an 11-win season, it was clear that an 8-5 record wasn’t expected this fall. It could have been expected, but Brady Hoke has set a high standard for himself and the program, and this year didn’t live up to that standard.

It’s hard to really point the blame in any one direction. The offense, defense and special teams all had high points and low points. Ultimately, the blame probably falls on the coaching.

It’s not that I think Michigan has bad coaching, quite the contrary. But, when a team has a letdown and there is no single reason why, that tends to fall on the coaches.

I think Michigan will improve on this season and Brady Hoke seems to be the right man for the job, but Wolverine fans didn’t like 8-win seasons when Lloyd Carr was around, so they probably won’t accept many of them from Hoke.

So, where does your blame fall for the season?

What was the most disappointing aspect of Michigan's season?

Thoughts on Michigan's 33-28 loss to South Carolina

Well, it was a heck of a football game.

But, in the end, Michigan allowed too many big plays to the South Carolina offense and lost the Outback Bowl, 33-28.

After digesting the game for a few hours, I still stand by my initial feelings that this was Michigan’s game to lose, and the Wolverines did just that.

It became clear during the game that South Carolina was not able to really put a drive together on offense, and was living off the big play.

Seemingly all Michigan had to do was keep the South Carolina receivers in front of them to win, but the Wolverines couldn’t do it.

Offensively, I was pretty impressed with Michigan. I thought Devin Gardner struggled with his passing accuracy, but he made up for it with some big throws later in the game and he also had some really impressive runs that sustained drives.

Denard Robinson looked like a competent running back. It is one thing to run from the quarterback position, it is another thing to play the role of the running back. Robinson did that well. He took the handoffs well. He followed his blockers and made good reads on his running lanes. He was a consistent presence in the offense and didn’t do anything to really hurt the team.

Jeremy Gallon made some impressive catches during the day as well.

The offensive line wasn’t outstanding, but wasn’t awful. Obviously Jadeveon Clowney had some massive hits and a key fumble late in the game, but it is going to be a tall order to keep him from making a big play.

Michigan had 29 more plays than South Carolina and held the ball nearly 16 minutes longer than the Gamecocks, yet the Wolverines still lost.

The Michigan defense didn’t come through today. Three touchdowns of over 30 yards, a 64-yard run from Connor Shaw and even a punt return for a touchdown (not that that’s on the defense, but it is still a coverage unit). Those were the plays that Michigan had to prevent. It’s one thing to allow one or two, but five plays of that nature is not acceptable from this defense. Especially against an average offense in South Carolina, that had just 21 rushing yards outside of Shaw’s 64-yard scamper.

I will get into Michigan’s season in a few days, but this loss puts one last punch in the gut to the Wolverines’ disappointing season. You have to call it disappointing. Michigan wasn’t favored in this game, but it had a win there for the taking and lost. The Wolverines failed to beat any team of significance this season and will probably finish outside the top 20 in the rankings.

If Michigan is truly going to get back to being a national power, 8-5 seasons won’t cut it. I am not trying to rain on the Wolverines’ parade, because an 8-5 season isn’t that bad in the grand spectrum of college football. However, Michigan coaches, players and fans want to live by a high standard, so I am holding them to that standard.

Outback Bowl Prediction

I don’t see the Outback Bowl turning out well for Michigan.

I don’t see this game being terribly lopsided, but I think the Michigan offense will have problems moving the ball against a strong and speedy defense like South Carolina.

Defensively, I think Michigan can keep South Carolina in check, but the Gamecocks will still find a way to score enough points to win.

South Carolina doesn’t quite have the same defensive talent that Alabama has, but it’s not far off. Devin Gardner will have to have a tremendous performance for Michigan to win, and I just don’t think he’s ready to carve up this defense quite yet.

Denard Robinson has struggled running against tough defenses like this, and I don’t think he is going to have that much of an impact when the Wolverines call his number.

If Michigan is to win, it will probably take a defensive or special teams touchdown, and you can’t really expect those to happen.

In the end, I see Connor Shaw making enough big throws to set up a few touchdowns and a few field goals, while Michigan will be clawing for everything it can get on offense.

Prediction: South Carolina 20, Michigan 10

Keys to victory for Michigan against South Carolina

Michigan returns to the football field coming up on Tuesday afternoon. Here are my keys to victory for the Wolverines against South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.

Mix it up with Denard – In the loss to Ohio State, Michigan became far too predictable on offense when Denard Robinson was on the field. The Wolverines didn’t have Robinson throw a single pass, which allowed the Buckeyes to stack the box when he was on the field. If Robinson is going to take any snaps at quarterback, he has to make a few throws throughout the game to keep the South Carolina defense honest. Michigan is much more likely to break a big play if the Gamecocks have to respect that Robinson could run or throw each time he touches the ball.

Keep Devin/Denard clean – The Michigan offensive line will be tested by an impressive front line for the South Carolina defense. If Michigan is going to be able to move the ball, the offensive line has to win the line of scrimmage and keep Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson from being sacked. The Gamecocks have an impressive 40 sacks this season, led by stud sophomore defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney, who has 13. If South Carolina is able to consistently get into the backfield, it is going to be a long day for the Michigan quarterbacks and the Wolverine fans.

Create turnovers – This South Carolina defense is good. The Gamecocks are only giving up 17.4 points and 312 yards per game, and that is with a SEC schedule. Michigan probably isn’t going to find a lot of consistent success on offense. The Wolverines can’t expect to drive the field 80 yards each time it needs a score. That means the Michigan defense will need to find a way to create turnovers. South Carolina has been pretty good at not turning the ball over, as it has just 19 for the season. Michigan also hasn’t been great at creating turnovers, as the Wolverines have only 17 for the year. But Michigan has to find a way to make South Carolina cough the ball up, especially when the Gamecocks are in their territory. One key turnover could decide this game.

Grade Michigan's 2012 season

Brady Hoke set a high standard for Michigan when he took the job, indicating that anything less than a Big Ten Championship is a disappointment.

While that is the right thing to say to the fan base, I can’t say I agree with the mindset.

Certainly Michigan is a team that should go into each season expecting to contend for the Big Ten title and be among the favorites to win it. But last season saw the Wolverines get 11 wins with no title. That is not a failure.

This season, Michigan again finds itself out of the running for the Big Ten title, but the season wasn’t a complete wash.

Unlike last year, I would say this season has been somewhat disappointing.

The Wolverines went 8-4, but three of their losses seemed like very winnable games.

Michigan could have beaten Notre Dame had it held on to the football.

It seemed that Michigan could have beaten Nebraska had Devin Gardner been prepared to backup an injured Denard Robinson. I wouldn’t say that the Wolverines definitely would have won that game, but the offense clearly would have been more productive than it was with Russell Bellomy at quarterback.

Against Ohio State, the game seemed to be Michigan’s for the taking, but a lack of adjustments on offense allowed the Buckeyes to squeak out a victory.

You can read more into Michigan’s season by the four losses than the eight wins. Truth is, Michigan failed to beat the good teams it faced this year. Of the eight wins, the best win seems to be against Northwestern (9-3), but it took a late miracle to get the win, and I don’t think many view the Wildcats as a nationally respected program.

Michigan did end the losing streak to Michigan State, which it needed to do, but the Spartans’ 6-6 record takes a little steam away from what that victory meant for the season outlook.

Overall, the offense wasn’t as explosive this season and the defense was just a shade worse than it was a year ago.

An 8-4 record is okay this year, but if Brady Hoke wants to live up to the standards he set when he took the job, things have to get better next year. The Big Ten was not that strong this season. There is no telling that it will be this weak again in the future.

Given the record and the quality of victories Michigan had, I give them a grade of a B-. I am hesitant to say C because Michigan still won eight games and could get a solid bowl victory. I don’t think the Wolverines deserved a B because of the lack of quality wins and the failure to make the Big Ten Championship Game.

What are your thoughts on Michigan’s season?

How would you grade Michigan's season

Final thoughts on Michigan/OSU, MSU/Minnesota

I expected there to be plenty to talk about following Saturday’s games, and there is. There were interesting developments for both Michigan and Michigan State in their regular season finales. Here are my thoughts on both team’s performances on Saturday.

Michigan 21, Ohio State 26

This is a game that looked to be Michigan’s for the taking at halftime, but an awful second half on offense kept the Wolverines from getting a big win in Columbus.

The fumbles are one thing. They happen. Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner could have tried to do a better job of protecting the ball, but ultimately, I thought it was the play calling that cost Michigan in this one.

Throughout the game, especially in the second half, I kept saying to myself: “Denard has to throw one of these times, right?”

But the clock kept ticking, and each time Robinson took the field, it was a run play. Not only was it a run play, it wasn’t a real creative run play.

Eventually Ohio State figured out what everyone in the world had figured out, that if Robinson is taking the snap, it is a run. The Buckeyes could commit their entire defense to stopping the run, which it did. The Wolverines couldn’t convert third downs because they were essentially giving away what they were doing based on who took the snap.

I know Robinson broke the big 67-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, but he was unable to do anything in the second half because Ohio State adjusted to the way Michigan used him.

I had no problem with Robinson being on the field, but Michigan needed to have him on the field with Gardner to keep the Ohio State defense honest. Michigan showed those looks in the first half, but went away from them in the second half.

Michigan needed to have Robinson throw a short pass or two to not make it obvious what was coming when he was taking the snaps.

If Robinson was still not healthy enough to throw a slant or even a bubble screen, then why put him under center at all?

I expected the defense to play worse than it did. Ohio State still had nearly 400 yards, but I thought the Wolverines did a good job of containing Miller’s running ability and they also held strong in some tough spots when the offense turned the ball over.

I was surprised Brady Hoke decided to go for it on 4^th and 3 from the Michigan 48 to open the second half. It may have been a different game had it worked out, but I thought there was more risk than reward in that case. I don’t think it cost Michigan the game, but it certainly gave a big momentum swing to the Buckeyes to open the second half.

Saturday’s loss certainly puts a negative on the season perspective for the Wolverines. An 8-4 season is clearly not bad, but no Legends Division title and a loss to Ohio State has to be considered a disappointment, especially when the conference was so up for grabs this year.

Three of Michigan’s four losses this season seemed to be games they could have won with a few changes here or there. The Wolverines controlled their destiny for the most part and couldn’t find their way to a championship when it was there for the taking.

Michigan State 26, Minnesota 10

A win to go 6-6 doesn’t turn MSU’s season from awful to good, but the Spartans came out and put on one of their best performances of the season.

The defense was dominant again, allowing just 99 yards of offense from the Gophers. It doesn’t matter who you are playing, it is difficult to hold a team under 100 yards of offense.

Le’Veon Bell was once again a work horse, pounding out 265 yards on 36 carries.

Andrew Maxwell struggled with accuracy, going just 13 of 29 passing. That has to be concerning at this stage of the season. Maxwell has not taken many strides throughout the course of the season that would give MSU fans much confidence for next season.

But, getting back to the overall point on this game, Michigan State fans should be happy that their team didn’t quit. It would have been easy to.

The Spartans came in with high expectations this season and missed them all by a wide margin. Making a bowl isn’t something that players can often get up for when they had hopes for a conference championship.

I give credit to the Spartans for not wanting to end their season on Saturday. A bowl victory can still salvage a little something to build on for next season.

But, make no mistake, this season has still been a step back for the program.

Predictions for Michigan/OSU, MSU/Minnesota

Saturday marks the end of the regular season for both Michigan and Michigan State, with both teams playing very meaningful games. Here are my predictions for both contests.

Michigan at Ohio State

This game really feels like more than just an annual rivalry game. Ohio State is looking to get an undefeated season while Michigan is seeking a ninth win. Both coaches (Urban Meyer and Brady Hoke) are looking to make a statement against the other for the sake of the rivalry.

I expect this game to be similar to last year’s game, where it is an offensive showcase that could come down to the final possession. I think Ohio State will be able to move the ball on the Michigan defense thanks to the play-making ability of Braxton Miller. I think the Wolverines will also be able to find plenty of offense against an Ohio State defense that isn’t all that strong. I think Michigan will pull out all the stops on offense, incorporating Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson at multiple positions to keep the Buckeyes guessing.

Ultimately, I see the Buckeyes winning this one. This game means everything to Ohio State (no offense, Michigan fans). With no bowl game and no Big Ten Championship opportunity, this is the national title game for Ohio State. Meyer has built this game up to be everything for the fan base and the players, and it will take place in the Horseshoe. I think Michigan puts up a fight, but Ohio State finds a way to win in the closing moments.

Ohio State 34, Michigan 31

Michigan State at Minnesota

I know it’s easy to assume that MSU will just waltz in to Minnesota and win and become bowl eligible, but what have the Spartans done this year to prove that would be a given?

Mark Dantonio may have guaranteed victory in his weekly press conference, but the only guarantee I expect is that this game will come down to the final possession just like all other MSU games.

Minnesota has plenty to play for here, just like the Spartans. The Gophers are seeking their first 7-win season since 2008 and head coach Jerry Kill came under fire this week from former player, A.J. Walker. There will be plenty of Minnesota players that will look to rally around Kill and get him a big win to end the regular season.

I am still going to pick Michigan State, as the Spartans are more desperate for the win. A loss for MSU would make an awful season even worse. I don’t expect it to be pretty, but some way, the Spartans will find a way to win.

Michigan State 20, Minnesota 17