Saturday, March 30, 2013

Michigan vs. Florida Breakdown & Prediction


No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 3 Florida
Time: 2:20PM ET
Venue: Cowboys Stadium
TV: CBS
Records: Michigan 29-7; Florida 29-7
Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.9 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (6.1 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.8 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).
Florida stat leaders: Points – Mike Rosario/Erik Murphy (12.6 ppg); Rebounds – Patric Young (6.3 rpg); Assists – Scottie Wilbekin (4.9 apg); Steals – Wilbekin (1.4 spg).
Current Streaks: Michigan W3, Florida W3
Point Spread: Florida -2.5
Prediction: I am a little surprised Florida is favored. I think Michigan has the momentum on its side with its improbable comeback against Kansas, and Florida hasn’t faced much of a difficult road to get to this game, beating a double-digit seed in every game in the tournament. Florida has been a tough team defensively, but its offense is lacking. The Gators also played in a down SEC conference while Michigan had to battle it out in the Big Ten. I think the Wolverines are more battle tested than the Gators and Michigan has the better athletes. The only way I see Michigan losing this game is if it plays into Florida’s hands with its approach on offense. I do expect the Gators to get some easy baskets along the way, but Michigan will be able to outscore the Gators as long as it takes care of the basketball and shoots reasonably well. I think Michigan gets to its first Final Four since 1993 (first recognized Final Four since 1976). Michigan 69, Florida 62

A second look at Michigan's improbable comeback over Kansas


Friday’s Sweet 16 game between Michigan and Kansas featured one of the more improbable finishes in tournament history and surely was one of the most memorable wins in the history of Michigan’s men’s basketball program.
Things got really crazy with three minutes to go in the game, Kansas leading 70-62. I went back and re-watched the game from this point. Here is what I saw, ultimately knowing the unlikely outcome.

2:52: Kansas’ Jeff Withey puts home a one-handed slam on a nice pass under the basket from Kevin Young. Kansas leads 72-62. That dunk seemed to be the final nail in Michigan’s coffin at the time.

2:25: After Tim Hardaway Jr. misses a pair of shots, including a 3-pointer, Kansas’ Elijah Johnson makes a poor decision on the other end and attacks the paint instead of slowing things down to let time run off the clock. Facing a trap from Hardaway and Trey Burke, he lobs a pass toward the top of the key to Withey, but Glenn Robinson III makes a great play to tip it away. He then tracks the ball down on the other end and slams it home in stride to make it 72-64 and give Michigan new life. It was one of a few key plays down the stretch from Robinson, and one of a few big mistakes from Johnson.

2:03: Johnson makes another poor decision, lazily bringing the ball up the floor after the Robinson dunk. Burke defends him hard and draws a 10-second violation. There was no reason for Johnson to allow this to happen. Two huge turnovers in less than 30 seconds for Johnson and Kansas.

1:52: Burke patiently works his way into the lane, drawing Withey to step up and get vertical. Burke passes under Withey to Mitch McGary, who finishes the easy lay-in. 72-66 Kansas. Four crucial points off the two Johnson turnovers, and those two baskets really seemed to give Michigan the momentum.

1:22: McGary called for a foul when he attempts to block a dunk attempt by Kansas’ Travis Releford. The replay shows a clean block, but it looked bad in live action. Releford hits both free throws. 74-66 Kansas.

1:14: Wasting little time, Burke hits an NBA 3-pointer over Withey to make it 74-69. Michigan with a time out after the score.

0:28.8: Michigan elects not to foul. Kansas gets a good look at the basket with Ben McLemore getting inside the paint, but he misses the off-balanced shot. Jordan Morgan rebounds it and gets it to Burke, who make a great down-court pass to Hardaway, who is wide open on the wing for 3. Hardaway misses again, but in a scramble for the rebound, Robinson gets it and hits a tough reverse lay-in to make it 74-71. Beilein uses his final time out. Robinson again comes up with a big hustle play.

0:21.0: Caris LeVert fouls Johnson. He hits both free throws in a 1&1 situation. 76-71 Kansas.

0:14.0: With Withey not on the floor, Burke quickly attacks the lane and gets a lay-in, 76-73. Michigan then quickly fouls Johnson again.

0:12.6: Johnson misses the first of a 1&1. Hardaway boards and gets it to Burke, which leads to…..

0:04.2: Burke hits drains an amazing 3-pointer, nearly halfway between half court and the 3-point line. We all knew Burke had range, but this shot is incredible. Game tied 76-76. Kansas takes a time out. Young nearly gets a piece of the shot on replay. Kansas really couldn’t have done anything short of fouling Burke before the shot, but I don’t think anyone expected him to launch it from there with 5 seconds left on the clock. That shot will go down in Michigan history. If the Wolverines go on to win a national title, that shot will be the equivalent of the Tayshaun Prince block of Reggie Miller in the Pistons’ 2004 run to the championship.

0:00: Naadir Tharpe misses a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Tharpe had a great look as LeVert oddly playing very far off him. It could have cost Michigan the game. You’d like to see a player challenge defensively and at least make Tharpe take an off-balanced shot. I understand the concern about fouling, but he gave Tharpe far too much room.

Overtime

4:30: Young gets an easy lay-in under the basket. Robinson tried to double up Withey, who was already being well defended by McGary. Robinson got too aggressive and left his man open for the easy 2. 78-76 Kansas.

4:01: Burke hits another NBA 3-pointer at the top of the key. Withey doesn’t step out at all to challenge and Burke is on another planet right now. 79-78 Michigan. First lead for the Wolverines since it was 9-8.

3:47: Releford hits two free throws after a blocking foul. Kansas regains the lead, 80-79.

3:20: Burke does it again, dribbling down McLemore before hitting a long 2 in his face. Nothing but net. Michigan leads, 81-80. Kansas just can’t do anything to stop him at this point.

2:34: After Nik Stauskas misses a wide-open 3-pointer on the baseline, Kansas runs the floor and Young gets a lay-in in transition. Kansas 82-81. It was the final lead for the Jayhawks.

2:15: McGary hits a tough turnaround jumper on the baseline with Withey in his face. One of the better shots I have seen McGary hit. Michigan leads 83-82.

1:04: Burke attempts a one-handed runner that goes long. Withey has the rebounding position, but Robinson again comes up big, tipping the ball out of Withey’s hands. McGary collects it for a quick lay-in. Michigan leads 85-82. Kansas calls a time out.

0:52.1: Robinson comes up big once again. Johnson tries to pass behind himself again and Robinson gets his long arm on the ball and gets fouled before he can breakaway for an easy 2. In a big moment, Robinson hits both free throws to close out the scoring for Michigan. Wolverines lead 87-82.

0:45.0: Johnson hits a 3-pointer from the top of the key. Michigan leads 87-85. Good shot coming off a screen.

0:09.4: Burke unable to put the game away, as Withey gets a piece of his runner. The shot clock expires during a scramble. After a lengthy video review, Kansas gets the ball with 9.4 left.

0:00.0: Johnson goes coast-to-coast and drives to the baseline. It looks like he could have taken a runner from an odd angle to tie the game, but had Morgan following behind him for a possible block. Johnson instead wildly kicks the ball out to Tharpe, who has to throw up a contested one-legged 3-point shot that hits hard off the glass and misses. Michigan wins, 87-85.

There were so many big moments in this final 8 minutes of play. Obviously McGary had a great game and Burke had a legendary second half and overtime, but Robinson III deserves a lot of credit in the comeback. He had a rough game defensively and was out-muscled a number of times by Kansas players, but he came through in a big way. Without his hustle plays, Burke never gets a chance to become a legend.

Friday, March 29, 2013

Michigan State vs. Duke Breakdown & Prediction


No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke
Time: 9:37 p.m.
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: CBS
Records: Michigan State 27-8; Duke 29-5
Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (13.3 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (7.5 rpg); Assists – Appling (3.4 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.6 spg).
Duke stat leaders: Points – Seth Curry (17.3 ppg); Rebounds – Mason Plumlee (10.0 rpg); Assists – Quinn Cook (5.4 apg); Steals – Cook (1.5 spg).
Current Streaks: Michigan State W2, Duke W2
Point Spread: Duke -2.5
Prediction: This game certainly feels bigger than a Sweet 16 contest. Two of the most successful programs in college basketball, with two of the best coaches, meeting up tonight. There is no question that Michigan State can win this game. Duke is good, but I don’t think the Blue Devils are any better than the Spartans on paper. MSU matches up well with Duke in my opinion. I think the Spartans have the bodies to keep Mason Plumlee from controlling the paint, and I think they have the athletic guards and forwards to pose problems for Seth Curry. If Michigan State makes a commitment to defending the perimeter, it should win this game. Part of this game will be determined by how well Duke shoots. The Blue Devils haven’t been lighting it up from 3-point land as of late, but can certainly get hot. I question how strong Keith Appling’s shoulder will be in this game and I am not sure if Gary Harris can continue to shoot well on the outside. This is the biggest game of Harris’ career, and the freshman could get lost in the moment. At the beginning of the tournament I picked Duke to win this game. I actually feel better about the Spartans’ chances, but I am going to stick with my original pick. I think Duke will shoot lights out and be able to fend off MSU. Duke 70, Michigan State 67.

Michigan vs. Kansas Breakdown & Prediction


No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 1 Kansas
Time: 7:37PM ET
Venue: Cowboys Stadium
TV: TBS
Records: Michigan 28-7; Kansas 31-5
Michigan stat leaders: Points – Trey Burke (18.8 ppg); Rebounds – Mitch McGary (5.9 rpg); Assists – Burke (6.7 apg); Steals – Burke (1.6 spg).
Kansas stat leaders: Points – Ben McLemore (15.8 ppg); Rebounds – Jeff Withey (8.5 rpg); Assists – Elijah Johnson (4.7 apg); Steals – Travis Releford (1.3 spg).
Current Streaks: Michigan W2, Kansas W5
Point Spread: Kansas -2
Prediction: This is obviously one of the biggest games, if not the biggest, Michigan has had in quite some time. A spot in the Elite 8 is on the line and the winner of this game could easily be favored to reach the Final Four out of the South Region. Michigan looked fantastic last week at The Palace, but are the Wolverines going to be able to take that show on the road? There is no secret that Michigan struggled away from Ann Arbor toward the end of the season. Kansas will likely have the crowd support for this game and playing in a big stadium like this can sometimes impact a team’s shooting as they get accustomed to the size of the building. Michigan will need to shoot well from the outside. Kansas center Jeff Withey does a great job of defending in the post and altering shots from guards as they try to attack the lane. If Michigan isn’t able to shoot consistently well from the perimeter, I don’t think it can win. Michigan will also need to defend well. Kansas hasn’t shot that well in the first two tournament games, but the Jayhawks can get hot quickly. Ultimately I think Michigan can win, but I need the Wolverines to prove to me they can win away from home in a big game. I just get the sense that some of the young players will go AWOL again and keep Michigan from getting this victory. Kansas 72, Michigan 65

Monday, March 25, 2013

Can MSU and/or Michigan make the Final Four?


We are into the second week of the NCAA tournament and both Michigan and Michigan State are still alive.
Both the Spartans and Wolverines had an impressive weekend at The Palace of Auburn Hills, as each team won both their contests by double digits. While there were a handful of teams that looked impressive this weekend, MSU and U-M are right up there with anyone in the tournament in terms of most impressive weekend.
Now things get a little tougher.
This weekend is what separates the great programs from the good. Michigan and MSU fans should feel good about their programs reaching the Sweet 16 this season. It isn’t an easy task. Expectations for both programs at different times this season were greater than a Sweet 16, but when you look at some of the teams that failed to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, it is an impressive accomplishment.
But, programs are defined on Final Fours. Sure, everyone wants to win the national championship, but reaching a Final Four is often times how programs are defined.
So what is it going to take for MSU and Michigan to win twice this upcoming week?
Michigan State has the toughest road of the two teams. The Spartans start with Duke, arguably the top college basketball program in the country when you look at accomplishments over the last 20 years.
Beating Duke will be hard enough, but if MSU wins, it is possibly looking at a matchup with Louisville, the top overall seed and team that took the Spartans out of last year’s tournament.
MSU will need to be at its best this weekend. Anything less will result in a loss. The Spartans have the horses to win the Midwest region, but we haven’t quite see the team all click at the same time. Keith Appling hasn’t been his best lately, but Gary Harris had a strong weekend. Derrick Nix looked as good as he has all season, but Adreian Payne has been either great or awful. Branden Dawson still looks lost with the basketball on offense, but has played great defense.
When Payne and Nix are clicking in the paint and dominating the glass, the Spartans seem unbeatable. It seems that when Harris is off, Appling is on. If both can find their stroke at the same time, MSU will be just fine. Dawson may never get his shot and finishing around the basket down, but his defense won’t take a step back. His ability to defend all over the floor will be very important against Duke.
Michigan State will also have to make a commitment to defending the perimeter. Duke can light opponents up from 3-point land, so MSU will have to make sure to not get caught trying to trap in the paint.
When it comes to Michigan, the Wolverines have appeared to gotten their swagger back. That was something that was certainly missing from Michigan toward the end of the Big Ten season. The Wolverines didn’t look confident and didn’t play confident. That changed at The Palace.
Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mitch McGary looked as good as they have all season, but a plus for Michigan is that Trey Burke looked about as bad as he has all season. I would expect Burke to have a much better weekend in Dallas, which will come in handy if Hardaway, McGary or Glenn Robinson III aren’t hitting their shots.
Michigan faces an interesting opponent in Kansas. The Jayhawks haven’t looked too good in their two games and have struggled on offense. They had 39 turnovers combined against Western Kentucky and North Carolina. Kansas also shot 5 for 20 from 3-point land in the two games. Despite the offensive struggles, Kansas will pose a defensive challenge to Michigan. Center Jeff Withey has been a force in the paint, averaging 3.9 blocks per game. His long wingspan allows him to get the high number of blocks and alter a lot of shots in the paint. Michigan will have issues trying to attack the paint if Withey is standing there.
Michigan proved on Saturday that it can certainly beat anyone in the country when it gets out in transition and plays downhill. I would expect coaches like Bill Self and Florida’s Billy Donovan look to slow down the Wolverines and force them into becoming a half-court offense. Teams will look to “ugly it up” against Michigan and it will be up to the Wolverines to hit shots, especially from the perimeter.
Can both Michigan and MSU reach the Final Four? Absolutely. Will they? I don’t think so. But, that is just my opinion. What are your thoughts?

Friday, March 22, 2013

Memphis vs. Michigan State Breakdown & Prediction


No. 6 Memphis vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Time: 2:45 p.m.
Venue: The Palace of Auburn Hills
TV: CBS
Records: Memphis 31-4; Michigan State 26-8
Memphis stat leaders: Points – Joe Jackson (13.7 ppg); Rebounds – D.J. Stephens (6.7 rpg); Assists – Jackson (4.9 apg); Steals – Geron Johnson (1.8 spg).
Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (13.6 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (7.4 rpg); Assists – Appling (3.5 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.6 spg).
Current Streaks: Memphis W7, Michigan State W1
Point Spread: MSU -6
Prediction: I think Memphis has a pretty good team and is athletic, but I don’t think the Tigers are going to present Michigan State anything it hasn’t seen before. The Spartans will have to play smart and committed on defense, or else Memphis can pile up the points. I think the Spartans should be able to stay balanced on offense. Derrick Nix still has a size advantage on anyone Memphis has and the Spartans have more shooting options than the Tigers. I think Tom Izzo will have a few tricks up his sleeve for Josh Pastner as well. Based on the vibe I get from Pastner and Memphis, Thursday’s win was an accomplishment in itself. I don’t think the Tigers are ready to take things to another level against MSU. Michigan State 67, Memphis 60