Michigan State vs. Duke Breakdown & Prediction

No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke

Time: 9:37 p.m.

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

TV: CBS

Records: Michigan State 27-8; Duke 29-5

Michigan State stat leaders: Points – Keith Appling (13.3 ppg); Rebounds – Adreian Payne (7.5 rpg); Assists – Appling (3.4 apg); Steals – Branden Dawson (1.6 spg).

Duke stat leaders: Points – Seth Curry (17.3 ppg); Rebounds – Mason Plumlee (10.0 rpg); Assists – Quinn Cook (5.4 apg); Steals – Cook (1.5 spg).

Current Streaks: Michigan State W2, Duke W2

Point Spread: Duke -2.5

Prediction: This game certainly feels bigger than a Sweet 16 contest. Two of the most successful programs in college basketball, with two of the best coaches, meeting up tonight. There is no question that Michigan State can win this game. Duke is good, but I don’t think the Blue Devils are any better than the Spartans on paper. MSU matches up well with Duke in my opinion. I think the Spartans have the bodies to keep Mason Plumlee from controlling the paint, and I think they have the athletic guards and forwards to pose problems for Seth Curry. If Michigan State makes a commitment to defending the perimeter, it should win this game. Part of this game will be determined by how well Duke shoots. The Blue Devils haven’t been lighting it up from 3-point land as of late, but can certainly get hot. I question how strong Keith Appling’s shoulder will be in this game and I am not sure if Gary Harris can continue to shoot well on the outside. This is the biggest game of Harris’ career, and the freshman could get lost in the moment. At the beginning of the tournament I picked Duke to win this game. I actually feel better about the Spartans’ chances, but I am going to stick with my original pick. I think Duke will shoot lights out and be able to fend off MSU. Duke 70, Michigan State 67.

Can MSU and/or Michigan make the Final Four?

We are into the second week of the NCAA tournament and both Michigan and Michigan State are still alive.

Both the Spartans and Wolverines had an impressive weekend at The Palace of Auburn Hills, as each team won both their contests by double digits. While there were a handful of teams that looked impressive this weekend, MSU and U-M are right up there with anyone in the tournament in terms of most impressive weekend.

Now things get a little tougher.

This weekend is what separates the great programs from the good. Michigan and MSU fans should feel good about their programs reaching the Sweet 16 this season. It isn’t an easy task. Expectations for both programs at different times this season were greater than a Sweet 16, but when you look at some of the teams that failed to reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, it is an impressive accomplishment.

But, programs are defined on Final Fours. Sure, everyone wants to win the national championship, but reaching a Final Four is often times how programs are defined.

So what is it going to take for MSU and Michigan to win twice this upcoming week?

Michigan State has the toughest road of the two teams. The Spartans start with Duke, arguably the top college basketball program in the country when you look at accomplishments over the last 20 years.

Beating Duke will be hard enough, but if MSU wins, it is possibly looking at a matchup with Louisville, the top overall seed and team that took the Spartans out of last year’s tournament.

MSU will need to be at its best this weekend. Anything less will result in a loss. The Spartans have the horses to win the Midwest region, but we haven’t quite see the team all click at the same time. Keith Appling hasn’t been his best lately, but Gary Harris had a strong weekend. Derrick Nix looked as good as he has all season, but Adreian Payne has been either great or awful. Branden Dawson still looks lost with the basketball on offense, but has played great defense.

When Payne and Nix are clicking in the paint and dominating the glass, the Spartans seem unbeatable. It seems that when Harris is off, Appling is on. If both can find their stroke at the same time, MSU will be just fine. Dawson may never get his shot and finishing around the basket down, but his defense won’t take a step back. His ability to defend all over the floor will be very important against Duke.

Michigan State will also have to make a commitment to defending the perimeter. Duke can light opponents up from 3-point land, so MSU will have to make sure to not get caught trying to trap in the paint.

When it comes to Michigan, the Wolverines have appeared to gotten their swagger back. That was something that was certainly missing from Michigan toward the end of the Big Ten season. The Wolverines didn’t look confident and didn’t play confident. That changed at The Palace.

Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mitch McGary looked as good as they have all season, but a plus for Michigan is that Trey Burke looked about as bad as he has all season. I would expect Burke to have a much better weekend in Dallas, which will come in handy if Hardaway, McGary or Glenn Robinson III aren’t hitting their shots.

Michigan faces an interesting opponent in Kansas. The Jayhawks haven’t looked too good in their two games and have struggled on offense. They had 39 turnovers combined against Western Kentucky and North Carolina. Kansas also shot 5 for 20 from 3-point land in the two games. Despite the offensive struggles, Kansas will pose a defensive challenge to Michigan. Center Jeff Withey has been a force in the paint, averaging 3.9 blocks per game. His long wingspan allows him to get the high number of blocks and alter a lot of shots in the paint. Michigan will have issues trying to attack the paint if Withey is standing there.

Michigan proved on Saturday that it can certainly beat anyone in the country when it gets out in transition and plays downhill. I would expect coaches like Bill Self and Florida’s Billy Donovan look to slow down the Wolverines and force them into becoming a half-court offense. Teams will look to “ugly it up” against Michigan and it will be up to the Wolverines to hit shots, especially from the perimeter.

Can both Michigan and MSU reach the Final Four? Absolutely. Will they? I don’t think so. But, that is just my opinion. What are your thoughts?

Who makes it to the Final Four

Parker's decision not too surprsing

Jabari Parker seemed to be most Michigan State fans’ favorite player before he had even committed to be a Spartan.

MSU was really hoping and counting on Parker to suit up in the green and white next season, but he instead opted for the “Yankees” of college basketball, Duke.

Parker made his commitment to the Blue Devils on national television on Thursday, changing the landscape of what Michigan State will look like next season.

In hindsight, the decision is not all that surprising.

Michigan State hasn’t been known to be a real hot spot for potential one-and-done recruits, which Parker is.

Tom Izzo has spoken out in the past about his dislike for the one-and-done rule and his only notable one-and-done player was Zach Randolph, who didn’t exactly flourish in his single season with the Spartans, averaging 10.8 points and 6.7 rebounds.

Izzo also isn’t known for being real lenient on his freshmen. He rides them, he challenges them and he also isn’t afraid to bench them for lengthy periods of time.

That isn’t to say Mike Krzyzewski doesn’t do much of the same, but he has had a better track record with one-and-done players as of late, including Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers.

Izzo seems to embrace the challenge of developing players over a number of years. He has produced a number of talented stars that have translated to the NBA, but many have stayed at least three years in the program.

You also can’t forget that Duke is Duke. No matter what Michigan State has accomplished under Izzo, the Blue Devils still are largely considered the top program in the nation and have been for more than two decades.

It will be interesting to see how Michigan State bounces back from this recruiting loss. The Spartans weren’t able to make certain moves or get commitments from other players as they awaited Parker’s decision. It was a risk vs. reward situation, and the Spartans came out on the wrong end.